The Kevin Durant Paradox
Great, but never fulfilled
Ah, the NBA is back, and it feels so good.
Kevin Durant has spent his entire career chasing something he may never catch. Not points or accolades, those come easily, but a kind of peace that no jersey swap has ever delivered. Now, he’s in Houston. Another team, another clean slate. The Rockets have received a fair amount of pre-season hype because Durant is now on the roster. But I have my doubts.
Durant entered the league as a lanky kid who famously couldn’t bench press 185 pounds even once at the Draft Combine. Contrast that image with Greg Oden, a big, burly center out of Ohio State, with whom Durant was competing to be the top pick in the draft. It’s hard to recall a conversation in which Durant and Oden were mentioned in the same sentence, which highlights how long Durant has been at it. A constant while the league around him changes.
Durant has graced us with his smooth jumper. His ability to get to his spot at will. His underrated trash-talking, especially to rookies. The memeable faces he makes. His Team USA moments. And his time will likely be coming to an end very soon.
Everyone knows about the impact Kevin Durant has on a basketball game. To such an extent that all you have to do is say his name, and you know it means trouble for the opposition. Durant reminded everyone what he’s capable of when he broke down a first-round series against the Clippers.
Then, after losing the hard-fought series, Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams wholeheartedly admitted that sometimes all you can do is watch while Durant performs his craft.
There’s no question Durant is a generational talent. However, his legacy (I hate to use that word) is a complicated one. The thing that still has me scratching my head is that his career reads like a masterpiece missing its final chapter. Though he did win two championships and two Finals MVPs, they will forever be tainted in the eyes of fans because it happened after joining a 73-9 Warriors team that had his former teammate calling him a cupcake.
Shouldn’t Durant, who was a top 1-3 player in the world for 5-10 years, have at least one championship outside of his Warriors runs? Especially when he has played with future Hall of Famers such as James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Kyrie Irving, and Devin Booker, all while they were in or near their primes? You would think someone considered a top 15ish player of all-time would have a signature championship run.
In my view, Durant has had an unbelievable career, but hasn’t impacted winning at an elite level. However, I wanted to go deep to see if my thinking was correct. I first researched his career and the circumstances surrounding each of his tenures with different teams.
Oklahoma City Thunder (2008-2016)
Durant led a young up-and-coming Thunder team to the 2012 Finals. The road to the Finals included beating heavyweight teams who had been there, done that. The Thunder swept the defending NBA champion, the Dallas Mavericks, in the first round. Then in the Second Round, they beat Kobe and the LA Lakers, who were two years removed from back-to-back championships. Finally, they beat the favored San Antonio Spurs, who were in the midst of their dynastic run during the Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili era. Unfortunately, for Durant and the Thunder, they fell short in the NBA Finals to LeBron, Wade, and Bosh.
During his time in Oklahoma City, Durant and the Thunder made the Western Conference Finals an additional three times (2011, 2014, 2016), but 2012 was the only season they made it to the Finals. The Thunder were plagued with injuries that impacted their playoff hopes, including Westbrook being out for the 2013 playoffs and Durant missing most of 2014/15 with a foot injury.
The Thunder’s best chance at making the Finals again came in 2016 when they blew a 3-1 series lead to the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors ended up blowing their own 3-1 lead in the Finals, which eventually led to Durant signing with Golden State after the infamous Draymond Green recruitment call.
Durant’s Thunder time probably should be viewed as a young, overachieving team that couldn’t get over the hump and eventually ran into superior teams in the Heat and Warriors. In my opinion, Durant is off the hook for not winning a championship in Oklahoma City, even though falling short in 2016 feels like a failure.
Brooklyn Nets (2020-2023)
For a while, Durant seemed to have what he always wanted. Freedom. Rings. Validation. But even surrounded by the game’s purest form of basketball in Golden State, something in him, and us, never settled.
After three years with the Warriors and a season lost to a torn Achilles, Durant stepped on the court for the Brooklyn Nets in search of winning on his own terms.
When he teamed up with Harden and Irving, it looked like the Nets would be competing for championships for the foreseeable future. However, injuries and off-court drama changed all of that. Durant only played a little over half his games over two seasons, and Irving had issues with the COVID vaccine and an antisemitic social media post. Eventually, all three stars requested trades.
Ultimately, injuries and off-court drama derailed what was a promising start to a new Nets era. We’ll never know what could have been because we never got to see a fully available Nets team in the playoffs.
Should Durant be blamed for Brooklyn’s failure? Probably not. Perhaps if he were a better leader, he could have taken control of the locker room and gotten everyone on the same page, but that feels especially harsh given Harden and Irving were some of the biggest divas in the Association at the time.
Phoenix Suns (2023-2025)
Durant joined the Suns and created another “big three” with Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. Durant’s time in Phoenix was similar to his time in Brooklyn, plagued by injuries. During the 2023/24 season, the three only played 41 games together and were swept in the first round by the Minnesota Timberwolves. The team failed to make the playoffs during the 2024/25 season and finished with just 36 wins.
Things probably should have turned out a lot better in Phoenix. Yes, injuries occurred, but Phoenix was coming off a 2021 NBA Finals appearance in which they were just two wins away from lifting the trophy.
Can Durant be blamed for the Suns’ regression? I don’t think you can blame Durant himself, but he did cost Phoenix a lot to get him. Most of the blame should probably be put on Matt Ishbia for some of his poor choices in the trade market.
On the surface, it appears that Durant has joined teams that were set up to win. It probably feels like Durant should shoulder more of the blame because each situation he entered has blown up in his face. In the end though, circumstances prevented Durant from winning deep into May and June more than anything else.
Durant’s Individual Stats
If we say Durant shouldn’t be blamed for his team situations, maybe there is some glaring weakness in his individual game that points to him not impacting winning at an elite level.
First, let’s look at Durant’s top-line stats and awards. In the regular season, he has averaged 27.2 points per game throughout his career. He is an efficient scorer, too. He has an eFG% of .554, 2P% of .543, 3P% of .390, and TS% of .620.
In the playoffs, he scores more while being slightly less efficient. He averages 29.3 points per game, an eFG% of .529, 2P% of .527, 3P% of .356, and TS% of .599.
In total, he has scored 30,571 points, good for eighth all-time. He has also been named the MVP once, been the top five in MVP voting six times, been an All-Star 15 times, been a six-time First Team All-NBA player, and been a five-time Second Team All-NBA player.
It’s fair to say Durant has almost all the accolades one could want. So what do his advanced stats reveal?
Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) predicts a player’s contribution to the team in points per 100 possessions. Durant has been in the top five in the league four times throughout his career (2010, 2012, 2013, 2014).
Over the last 20 years, LeBron James (13), Chris Paul (12), Steph Curry (10), Kawhi Leonard (7), Giannis Antetokounmpo (6), Dirk Nowitzki (5), Joel Embiid (5), Nikola Jokic (6), Dwight Howard (4), and James Harden (4) have equaled or exceeded Durant’s top five EPM finishes. Based on Durant’s cumulation of awards, I would have thought he would be higher on the list here, but I don’t think this diminishes Durant’s status. It’s just one statistic.
Win Shares (WS) estimate the number of wins a player contributes to. Durant’s WS per 48 minutes (WS/48) is .2042, which is good for 24th all-time. For context, Karl Malone sits just ahead of Durant, and Larry Bird sits just below him. I’d say that’s pretty good company.
Ok, let’s go to Box Plus-Minus (BPM), which uses box score data and the team’s overall performance to estimate a player’s contribution in points above the league average per 100 possessions. In this statistic, Durant sits 13th all-time with 6.42. Steph Curry is right above him, and James Harden is right below him. Again, great company.
But does Durant make his teammates better?
According to BBall Index, Durant had the 10th highest overall gravity in the NBA last season, which indicates that just being on the floor can help his teammates get better looks.
However, his assist percentage (AST%), which estimates the percentage of teammate field goals a player assists while on the floor, is 20.6 for his career, pretty average for a wing player like Durant. Ben Taylor of Thinking Basketball has been pretty critical of Durant’s passing ability and poor court awareness.
Where Durant also falls short for such an elite player is on the defensive side of the ball. While a decent defender at the rim, he has struggled on the perimeter, especially since his Achilles injury. Last season, he averaged only 1.5 deflections per 36 minutes, which ranks 186th of 207 forwards who played at least 300 minutes.
When not surrounded by good team defenders, his abilities on the defensive side of the ball become more exposed. Durant’s defensive BPM (DBPM) is only good for 185th all-time, right alongside David West and Christian Laettner.
While not a great playmaker or defender, perhaps Durant’s greatest weakness as a player is his health. He has played 70+ games in only nine of his 18 seasons in the NBA. His availability has definitely become a challenge since his Achilles injury.
Winning Time?
So there it is. We finally found a few flaws in Durant’s game. But does that make him not a winning player?
My instinct about him has been correct in the fact that he is always going to get his. However, he doesn’t necessarily make his teammates better, which can be the difference between a role player hitting a big shot (cough, Robert Horry) or not. He obviously knows he’s supposed to make his teammates better (see his interview in the YouTube video above), but he hasn’t consistently shown the ability to deliver in that category throughout his career.
Still, when the ball is in his hands and he’s ready to create for himself, he is among the best to ever play.
After investigating Durant’s team situations and observing his elite-level stats, it’s hard to say he doesn’t contribute to winning. Maybe he just doesn’t contribute to winning at as high a level as we think he should given his elite ability to score the ball.
As I have previously written, the NBA is more talented than ever. Maybe the era of superstars dominating and winning multiple championships isn’t as realistic anymore, especially for Durant as he ages.
The NBA is More Talented Than Ever
How the talent depth of the NBA stacks up over the last 30 years...Kevin Durant thinks this era of basketball is the best it has ever been. Players are doing extraordinary things on the court every single night. There is more parity in the Association than ever...
Another possible reason I have this perception of Durant is that he has played for multiple teams without producing championships, barring Golden State. It feels as if we see the same story playing out everywhere he goes.
Moses Malone was a journeyman while playing in the ABA and NBA. Despite his three MVPs and countless accolades, he is probably still underrated in the all-time conversation.
If Durant stayed with the Thunder, I imagine my opinion and the conversation would be different, even if he never won a championship there. As USA TODAY shared, Durant’s journeyman career is kinda sad, and it hasn’t helped the perception of him as an all-time great.
The one consolation about watching Durant’s career is that the dude loves to hoop. It’s all he’s really wanted to do. You at least know he’ll give his all until the end, no matter what may hold him back from winning on his own. Maybe the truth is that Durant’s story isn’t about failure or fulfillment, but about a man still in love with the game. Maybe I can finally stop asking these silly questions that don’t really matter and just enjoy watching the last bit of basketball he has left in him.
Great one !
Great piece, and you’re right, no matter what he’s a fun player to watch!