The Indiana Pacers’ Future Rests on Hope
A feel-good story and where it goes from here
It’s not every day I decide to write about the losing team of the NBA Finals. However, the Indiana Pacers defied all expectations and it’s hard to ignore their underdog story.
Game 7 looked poised to deliver an all-time Tyrese Haliburton game in the opening moments. He was 3-4 from three and had nine points in the first seven minutes.
Then disaster struck. He tore his Achilles and knew it instantly as he pounded the floor with his fist and openly wept. It was a cruel end to a Pacers postseason that deserved a storybook ending.
Haliburton’s teammates held their own and even mustered a one-point lead at halftime. But OKCs suffocating defense took over in the second half. I thought Rick Carlisle’s substitutions in the third quarter didn’t do his team any favors either. With the season starting to slip away, he sat his best available player, Pascal Siakam, from the 7:13 to 1:56 mark.
In Game 7 of the NBA Finals, there comes a time when you have to cut the rotation down to six guys, especially when Haliburton isn’t available. And with the game getting out of hand, this wasn’t the time to play to your normal playoff rotation.
In the end, it probably wouldn’t have mattered given the events with Haliburton earlier in the game. OKC was the best team from October through June. They were the most deserving team to win it all. But it doesn’t take away from the miraculous run the Pacers had.
Before last year’s NBA Finals, I wrote about championship windows. In today’s NBA, championship windows are short and close fast. You can’t take them for granted and have to be bold and smart about when to throw all your chips in.
How to Predict When a Championship Window is Open
When a championship window opens, it only opens up long enough to quickly reach out and grab the trophy before it comes down on your hand in a painful fashion.
I discussed key indicators of championship contenders. They are the following:
Dominant: Top 5 offensive or defensive rating
Balanced: Top 5 net rating
Star Talent: Top 10 player in the NBA
Win: Top 5 in win percentage
Across the entire season, the Pacers didn’t hit on any of the indicators. Even if you remove the first 25 games of the season when Indiana went 10-15, they only meet the threshold for one of them: Top 5 in win percentage (fourth in the league). The Thunder, meanwhile, met the threshold of all five categories and had a historically great year.
The Pacers made for one of the most competitive and entertaining NBA Finals in recent memory, winning three games. Like I said, true underdogs. They defied all logic.
Even now, I still think most would look at the Pacers and think they are a good, but not great team. When looking at others who have lost in the NBA Finals—Kobe’s Lakers ('08), LeBron’s Heat ('11), Duncan’s Spurs ('13), and Tatum’s Celtics ('22)—I think most would consider these teams great. Maybe hindsight is 20/20; these teams eventually won an NBA championship.
I don’t think anyone looks at Haliburton's Pacers and gets the same feeling. I certainly don’t think many believe they can get back and win a championship. Certainly, the Pacers won’t be in the Finals next year because they will be without their best player for the whole campaign.
And maybe that’s just how the modern NBA is going to be. Last year’s Mavericks didn’t make the playoffs this year. The Heat haven’t looked the same since their Finals run as an eight seed in '23. The Suns are now a complete disaster since their Finals run in '21.
But this year’s Pacers still need to be celebrated. They improved throughout the season and playoffs and should be considered a great team based on their accomplishments. They got to the Finals where they pushed the favorites to seven games and were a torn Achilles away from potentially winning it all. They weren’t just happy to be there like so many past teams who found unexpected success in the playoffs.
None of the other recent one-and-done Finals losers came close to accomplishing what the Pacers did in the Finals. The Mavericks and Heat won once and the Suns won twice.
But how did this year’s Pacers do it and come within an overworked calf of winning the title?
For starters, they just played really hard. Said JJ Redick back in February:
“I had this revelation…There’s only actually one cheat code in the NBA and that’s playing hard. If you play hard every night, you have a chance to win. If you don’t play hard every night, you’re probably going to lose.”
As simple as it sounds, the Pacers play really hard. After 105 games this season, they still went out there and competed every possession. Maybe their depth had something to do with it, but playing hard is a rare commodity in the NBA. In the NBA Finals, the Pacers even out-hustled the Thunder, recovering 46 loose balls compared to OKCs 34.
The Pacers were also the epitome of team play. Some may argue Haliburton is now a top-ten player in the league, but he isn’t the type of player to generate his own shot on any given possession. He is a pass-first player and the Pacers are built around ball movement and the power of ‘we’ to get the ball in the basket.
The Pacers have less talent at the top of their roster compared to the Thunder, which requires them to generate points in other ways. Probably most telling is the number of passes they had throughout the Finals. Indiana had 702 more passes than the Thunder during the series (326.4 passes per game).
That’s more passes per game than any other Finals team since the '14 Spurs. The Spurs were just able to convert those passes to more assists, while the Pacers weren’t able to capitalize as frequently.
The Pacers generated 159 assists to the Thunder’s 123 throughout the entire seven-game series, which was 23 assists per 100 possessions. Historically, that isn’t actually all that much compared to recent Finals teams. The ball movement gold standard set by the '14 San Antonio Spurs generated 28.7 assists per 100 possessions.
The Pacers also shot the ball from the field at a higher percentage than the Thunder. They shot 19 fewer field goals but were able to keep up with the Thunder because they were more efficient and had 18 more three-point baskets. However, their efficiency wasn’t able to make up for the free throw and turnover differences. Indiana had 31 more turnovers and 35 fewer points off free throws over the seven games.
So what do the Pacers have to do to get back to the Finals, win a championship, and be mentioned in the same breath as the great Finals teams that lost before winning it all?
For one, they have to get healthy. Next season is going to be a wash. They will likely compete and make the playoffs, but a deep run isn’t expected from anyone. Then they have to prove to everyone that this magical run wasn’t a fluke. They can’t expect to miss on all five key championship indicators and get back to one win away from an NBA championship.
The problem is that 16 months from now we can have a completely different NBA. Change happens quickly in the Association. Look at the Boston Celtics. Just 12 months ago they were NBA champions. Now, two key players from that team have been traded to save money for a season in which Tatum will be absent due to his own Achilles injury.
Indiana’s key pieces are locked up for multiple years, but contributors such as Myles Turner and Bennedict Mathurin will be out of contract by the time Haliburton returns. Unfortunately, the Pacers may not get the chance to try and prove they are a great team. They may always be the team that had a fun playoff run and came close but never made it back on the main stage.
What the Pacers did prove is that it’s possible to win it all as massive underdogs. On the Bill Simmons Podcast, Zach Lowe said he talked with a General Manager and asked what he learned from the Pacers’ unprecedented run. The GM's answer was, “Hope.” (Cue the Star Wars gif...)
And hope is what the Pacers will have to do for the next 18-24 months as they prepare to try and make another Finals run. Hope that they can keep their core together while adding key pieces. Hope that they can stay healthy. Hope that Haliburton can get back to being an elite player. Hope that the ball bounces their way once or twice. If these things happen, we may be including these Pacers in the same breath as the great Finals winners 24 months from now.
The Yes-Cers reminded me of those Spurs teams (didn't recall which year, so thanks for the '14 reference) whose passing was like seeing the backside of a clock--mechanical precision. Seven-hundred and two more passes than OKC is fascinating, and explains the Thunder's reliance on SGA's ability to create off the dribble.
But if "defense wins championships" (hate quoting Nico Harrison--not that a shoe guy could ever originate that thought), then you gotta take your hat off to the Thunder. As unselfish as the Pacers are on offense, the Thunder were on defense. Their active hands and hustling feet are just as impressive as what these '25 Pacers will be known for.