I know the tournament’s over, but in case you missed it, check out the blurb I wrote for Sports Square about Spain vs. Argentina and what I felt were the keys to the game. Thanks, for the opportunity!

Ah, the 2026 World Cup. There’s nothing like it. Entire countries get behind “the boys.” And they really are boys, maybe except for Tim Ream, Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Vozinha. No other sporting event on earth carries this much pride for a nation. It transcends the game itself. Politics, past wars, and decades-old rivalries all get relitigated on a field by 22 guys kicking a ball around for 90 minutes.

Now that the dust has settled, I want to take a minute to reflect on the last 39 days.

I embraced this World Cup more than I ever have. Having it on U.S. soil, with games kicking off during the day and evening instead of the middle of the night, definitely helped. I still remember waking up as a kid to catch USA vs. Mexico and USA vs. Germany back in 2002, and somehow I was more locked in this time around than I was back then. I guess it’s safe to say I felt like a kid again.

I wrote a bit about my experience going to a couple of World Cup games in a previous article. Coming home from the USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina game, my friend and I wore our USA jerseys through the airport. An older couple talked our ears off the entire time about how they’d watched the game the night before. They just kept going.

We then had a bit of a drive from the airport. We stopped at a gas station in a podunk town in the middle of nowhere. As we were getting back in the car after grabbing some snacks for the road, a guy started telling us he’d watched the game the night before too. He said he’d never really watched soccer before.

He asked us about Balogun’s red card, and whether that meant the U.S. would have to play the next game with ten men. My friend educated him on the rules and confirmed we’d still have eleven men, but Balogun would be suspended (I guess we were proven wrong there). The conversation ended with the guy saying he’d be tuning in for the Belgium game.

Maybe I just wasn’t paying attention before, but I don’t remember this kind of interest in the game from Americans during any other World Cup. Again, having it on home soil during waking hours probably helps. But I still think it’s pretty cool watching Americans embrace the game the way they have. Just look at some of these tweets from some of the biggest sports commentators in the country.

Even hysterical takes like this one are good. It gives the sport more exposure and keeps people talking:

Perhaps my favorite thing to do these last 39 days was jump on social media and watch people experience the U.S. for the first time. People embraced America with all its fun, quirkiness, and overly in-your-face traditions. Overall, I think the World Cup brought us all together. I was a critic of expanding to 48 teams, but doing so let fans who never used to show up for this tournament experience it for the first time. It showed we’re all human, with the same wants and desires as everyone else. The World Cup showed us the power of sports.

With all the good that comes with a World Cup, let’s not forget why we actually watch. The drama on the field is what pulls in over half the world’s population every four years. So, here are my ten best games this tournament gave us.

10. USA vs Paraguay (4-1)

Not every great game needs a nail-biting finish. Folarin Balogun had a first-half brace to become the first American to score twice in a World Cup match since 1930. Gio Reyna iced it late with a gorgeous outside-of-the-foot finish.

I’ll admit, I was giddy after this one. I came into the tournament with pretty low expectations for the U.S., and this was the game that convinced me, and the rest of the country, that this team deserved to be taken seriously. Without it, I don’t think the U.S. audience tunes in at the numbers it did the rest of the tournament. That guy at the gas station probably never watches a match at all if this game doesn’t happen in the manner it did.

9. Austria vs Algeria (3-3)

This one had every reason to be a nothing game. Heading into matchday 3 of the group stage, both Austria and Algeria only needed a draw to advance, but it still provided us with six goals, two of them coming in stoppage time.

8. England vs France (6-4)

The third-place game is football’s version of the NBA All-Star Game, a glorified exhibition nobody really wants to be playing in (hence the no defense). I would rank this one higher if the game wasn’t meaningless. England went up 4-0 in the first half, only for France to come storming back in the second half, before England put it away late. Perhaps the most interesting part of this match was that this playing style is how all English fans have been begging for over the last 5+ years. Plus, Bukayo Saka had a hat-trick for England after not even seeing the field in the semifinal. It’s almost as if this caused more frustration towards Thomas Tuchel compared to if they had lost.

7. Croatia vs Portugal (2-1)

This one will be remembered for the ball, not the football. Gonçalo Ramos put Portugal up 2-1 in the fourth minute of stoppage time. Croatia thought they’d answered right back when Josko Gvardiol slid home an equalizer nine minutes later, until VAR disallowed it. The Adidas Trionda’s built-in sensor, which detected a hair’s-width touch off Igor Matanovic in the buildup, put Mario Pasalic in an offside position no human eye caught live.

The same “connected ball” technology was used days later in England’s quarterfinal against Norway. It cleared Jude Bellingham’s equalizer by ruling that the ball never touched an overhead camera cable. The new ball sensor had two big controversies in its tournament debut.

6. England vs DR Congo (2-1)

This game has been a bit underrated in my opinion, but at the time, I called it the game of the tournament. My brother went to this game, and he agreed. DR Congo, playing in its first World Cup knockout match ever, came out and punched England in the mouth. The pace was fast and furious and didn’t slow down. After DR Congo scored an early goal, England spent the rest of the match fighting back until Harry Kane finally broke through with a header in the 75th minute and then a rifled finish in the 86th to complete the comeback. The intensity of the game made it one of the best of the tournament.

5. Belgium vs Senegal (3-2, AET)

This game was on while I was enjoying the pre-game festivities at the USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina game. We all knew Senegal was up 2-0 with only a few minutes left in the match. Then the murmur among the crowd of people around me started to bubble. Belgium scored twice in less than three minutes to send the game to extra time.

Deep into extra time, a VAR review awarded Belgium a controversial penalty for a foul on Senegal. The penalty was buried in the 125th minute, the latest winning goal in World Cup history. It’s one of the greatest comebacks the tournament has ever seen. Selfishly, as a U.S. fan, I can’t help but think about the version of this game where Senegal holds on. This comeback might have cost the U.S. another game in the knockout stages.

4. Argentina vs Egypt (3-2)

Egypt led 1-0 in the Round of 16 when Mostafa Ziko put what looked to be a second goal in the back of the net. However, it was disallowed after review for a foul in the buildup, a call Egypt argued should never have gone to VAR in the first place. The conspiracy theories about Argentina being favored were louder than ever. Ziko did eventually get his goal to make it 2-0, and Egypt looked to be through.

Argentina then scored three unanswered goals in the final thirteen minutes to complete one of the craziest comebacks in World Cup history. The win had Messi in tears. Even he thought all hope was lost.

3. Argentina vs England (2-1)

Forget football for a second. Before the game started, Argentina fans chanted through the entire English national anthem. It was barely audible on the TV. English fans responded by booing and jeering during the Argentine national anthem. After the game, Argentina players ran onto the field waving a banner reading, “Las Malvinas son Argentinas,” a not-so-subtle reference to the Falklands. Both events, which didn’t even include the game itself, tell you everything you need to know about the temperature of this semifinal.

The game was chippy and physical from the opening whistle. After Anthony Gordon gave England the lead in the 55th minute, Tuchel got all his tactics wrong. Instead of keeping the ball and pushing for a second, England sat back and defended in its own third for the last 25+ minutes. The breakthrough finally came from Enzo Fernandez in the 85th minute, and the winner came from Lautaro Martinez, both assisted by Messi. The tactical mistakes, late game drama, and history on and off the pitch between these two sides made this game must-see TV.

2. England vs Mexico (3-2)

The Azteca is the pinnacle of sports. Full stop. This match had everything. A delayed kickoff due to lightning. Rain. Night game. A hostile, deafening crowd that was throwing beer all night. Five goals. One red card.

Mexico dominated possession much of the night, but Jude Bellingham’s brilliance and the team’s stout defending ushered England through to the quarterfinals. The English media called it one of the best backs-against-the-wall performances England has ever played. They became just the third team ever to beat Mexico at the Azteca in a competitive match.

1. Argentina vs Cabo Verde (3-2, AET)

Cabo Verde was the lowest-ranked team ever to reach a World Cup knockout round. A nation of half a million people pushed the defending World Cup winners to the absolute brink.

Messi opened the scoring in the first half with one of the best first touches of the tournament. Side note: a beautiful first touch is probably one of the most underrated skills in all of sports. Plucking a ball out of the air from 40 yards away without losing it out of bounds or to your opponent is pretty remarkable, and footballers make it look easy. Pull a guy off the street to try to do what Messi did for his goal, and the ball would probably end up in the stands.

To the surprise of everyone, Cabo Verde equalized in the second half and pushed the game to extra time. Argentina led again early after a Lisandro Martinez goal.

Then came the goal and moment of the tournament. Sidny Lopes Cabral, who three years ago was playing in the fifth tier in Germany, curled in an absolute worldie from the edge of the box in the 103rd minute. He couldn’t even believe it himself. He then ran into the stands to hug his girlfriend.

In the second half of extra time, Cristian Romero headed in the winning goal. Cabo Verde created chances until the end of the match, but weren’t able to send it to penalties. We didn’t get the fairytale ending, but for 120 minutes, this tiny island nation had the entire world watching in disbelief.

That’s a wrap

That’s the list. This World Cup was filled with memorable games, moments, and controversy. But if this World Cup proved anything, it’s that this tournament still has a way of making the whole world feel small for a full month. Whether you’re watching from the stands or connecting with a stranger at the airport, I don’t think we will get anything quite like it in the near future. Until 2030, everyone.

Every fan loves to relive unforgettable sports moments. I am honoring that nostalgia with a Butterflies series called “Replays.” Each edition will revisit a special sports memory, add context, and share reactions and commentary surrounding it.

Context

In honor of the World Cup this week, let’s revisit one of the most infamous semifinal games in the history of the tournament.

Brazil hosted Germany in the 2014 semifinal. Playing on home soil and with plenty of talent, Brazil had all the ingredients to win their sixth World Cup. Both teams walked into the Mineirão without a loss.

Brazil was shorthanded. Neymar was injured in the quarterfinal game against Colombia and Thiago Silva was suspended from accumulating yellow cards. Still, fans were hopeful. This was Brazil, after all.

However, this wasn’t just a bad night for Brazil; it rearranged its history.

It’s the largest margin of defeat ever recorded in a World Cup semifinal. Miroslav Klose of Germany scored his 16th career World Cup goal in the match, moving past Brazil’s own Ronaldo to become the tournament’s all-time leading scorer (at the time). The loss also snapped a 62-match unbeaten streak at home in competitive play for Brazil, which stretched back to 1975.

Brazil lost pieces of its own record book that night.

The Moment

Apologies, FIFA blocks its video from being watched here, so you have to go to YouTube. Click here to watch.

You can also watch the video below, but it’s not as good.

Reactions

Brazilian soccer culture already had a word for this kind of night before it happened. In 1950, Brazil lost to Uruguay in the World Cup. It would become known as, “Maracanaço,” a shameful day in Brazilian history. “Mineiraço,” named after the stadium where this loss happened, is what this forgettable game became known as.

Comment Section

And the saddest comment ever…

This World Cup has been amazing. Genuinely, it’s had everything you could ask for on U.S. soil. My new pastime is watching World Cup visitors experience America for the first time. Watching them bring their chants and traditions to Times Square. Bringing the beautiful game to our NFL stadiums. And the European and South American atmospheres are being transmitted to our television sets for the rest of America to experience.

The country got behind the boys. The stars have been as bright as ever. The games have been fantastic. Argentina vs Cape Verde. Mexico vs England at the Azteca. Argentina vs Egypt. Portugal vs Croatia. England vs DR Congo. We’ve had some real bangers, and I’m sure there’s more to come before this thing is done.

I had the privilege of going to two of them myself.

The first was USA vs Australia in Seattle. The crowd was already buzzing after the U.S. had just put a 4-1 thrashing on Paraguay, and that energy walked straight into the stadium with everyone. Honestly, I’m not sure how the players managed to focus on the game after hearing the entire crowd belt out the national anthem before kickoff. I’m sure everyone in the stands felt something. I felt patriotic. It was also the introduction to “Country Roads” as the USMNT’s unofficial anthem. It was emotional in a way I didn’t expect a soccer game to be.

The second game I attended was USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina, the first game of the knockout stage. I bought those tickets the day after I got home from Seattle. It was midnight. I was sitting in my closet, refreshing the janky FIFA ticketing site, looking for a deal. I finally just took a breath and bought the most expensive tickets I’ve ever purchased in my life. I had a little buyer’s remorse the next morning. Then I remembered this was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and got over it quickly.

Both games were electric. I’ve never experienced anything like it at a sporting event. The whole crowd was locked into every touch. The pop and party in the stands after Malik Tillman’s free kick against Bosnia was unlike anything I’ve ever felt in a stadium.

Said Folarin Balogun of his World Cup experience, “Is this real life?” Needless to say, the vibes were good.

Then Reality Hit

And then came USA vs Belgium. To put it kindly, the U.S. sucked. They looked timid. They looked scared. The moment was too big for them.

That’s honestly what stings the most. Watching teams like Cabo Verde and Egypt refuse to back down to Argentina, throwing every last ounce of energy into those games. Then, watching a U.S. team, with more talent one through eleven than either of Cabo Verde or Egypt, looked completely star-struck.

Said The Athletic:

How, after so much glee over the past month, had it suddenly turned so sour? How, after so much dynamic soccer, could each thought seem so slow and each touch look so sloppy?

U.S. players entered Monday’s round-of-16 match with confidence, so much confidence that the prospect of a World Cup exit on the banks of the Elliott Bay barely registered.

“We all had in our minds that we were definitely gonna be heading back to L.A. tomorrow (for a quarterfinal),” midfielder Gio Reyna said.

Instead, they rode a bus back to their team hotel, and over the 24 hours that followed, they said emotional goodbyes. They shared a last night of drinks and debriefing at the team hotel; sent farewell messages in their WhatsApp group; then trudged through Seattle-Tacoma International Airport and went their separate ways.

Belgium didn’t even let us get into our high press. They played long balls over the top and won every second ball. They attacked our weakest link, Tim Ream, by overloading his side of the field. Pochettino tried to adjust, but there were too many mistakes to overcome. Once Belgium got its third goal, they were content to sit in a low block and see the game out. We never found a way through it.

Subscribe now

The USMNT has taken plenty of criticism since the Belgium loss, Christian Pulisic especially. And honestly? That’s a good thing. It means people are starting to care. The media is starting to take notice. Expectations have been raised.

According to insights from Fox, 50 million people tuned into the U.S. vs Belgium game in the United States. The reported numbers keep going up, but that’s the highest-watched sporting event in the States outside of NFL games since the 1994 Olympics. That’s more than double this year’s NBA Finals, a series that featured the Knicks, arguably the league’s most popular team not named the Lakers. So, all this criticism, all this noise, I welcome it. It’s a sign of life for soccer in America.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Before the postmortem starts, let’s reflect on what went right. This team won the group with a game to play. USMNT players became household names. For about three weeks, this team gave the entire country a reason to care. People believed. Some even thought we could make a run and win the whole thing.

This was our golden generation. Back in 2022, we had the second-youngest squad at the entire tournament. Now those same guys are in their prime. However, and here comes the tough part, we didn’t make it any further than we did four years ago.

By the next World Cup, most of the core of this team will be past their prime. This tournament was it for a lot of them.

• Chris Richards will be 30

• Antonee Robinson will be 32

• Sergino Dest will be 29

• Alex Freeman will be 25

• Tyler Adams will be 31

• Weston McKennie will be 31

• Malik Tillman will be 28

• Christian Pulisic will be 31

• Folarin Balogun will be 29

If you don’t weigh this against how far past U.S. teams have gone, this is still the most talented group we’ve ever fielded. The U.S. World Cup squad carries a higher transfer market value than Switzerland, Ecuador, Uruguay, Colombia, Japan, Mexico, and Egypt. In fact, only 16 other countries in the entire World Cup have a more valuable squad than ours.

Of course, the record book doesn’t care about transfer valuations. We lost in the Round of 16 with the 17th-best roster in the tournament by transfer value. On paper, we performed about as well as we were supposed to.

The next step for the USMNT isn’t just getting more players onto rosters at big European clubs. It’s getting them real, meaningful minutes against the toughest competition week in and week out. We need these guys starting Champions League matches, not just sitting on the bench. If you look at total minutes played by World Cup squads in Europe’s top five leagues, the U.S. ranks 18th. Right now, there are 30 Americans playing in the top five leagues. Spain has 523.

Folarin Balogun is a good example of what that gap means. He’s been embraced as one of the best players we’ve had this World Cup. He plays for an okay AS Monaco team that finished 7th in the French top flight, which will have to qualify for the Conference League next season.

Even though he was the leading scorer on his team with 13 goals, he’d probably have a difficult time making the England World Cup squad had he committed to the Three Lions back when he was deciding which country to play for. With that said, he may be on the move this summer to a more prestigious club. I just hope he goes somewhere he can get meaningful minutes.

The thin depth of the U.S. becomes a problem when it’s time to pick a squad. We only have a handful of guys playing at the top level, and even the ones who get there often aren’t playing much once they arrive.

Alex Freeman is a good example of this. He arrived at Villarreal mid-season in January 2026, a team that finished 3rd in LaLiga. He got a total of three starts and nine appearances in his first four months with the team. Now, it’s definitely difficult to break into a team mid-season, and I would hope he can win a regular spot in the starting XI this coming season, but sporadic playing time like this isn’t uncommon for Americans in Europe.

World Cup 2030

A lot can change in a World Cup cycle. Half the starting lineup turned over between the Round of 16 in 2022 and the Round of 16 in 2026. There’s no reason to think 2030 will be any different.

It’s going to be up to the next generation to pick up the slack. Alex Freeman should hopefully be one of the veterans come the next World Cup. There are other good prospects coming, but we still don’t have a true top-tier player in the world wearing the U.S. badge.

Everything about American soccer is trending up. Attendance, ratings, buzz. Records were set all tournament long, even in defeat. But how we perform when the lights are brightest is still an open question.

I keep coming back to Seattle vs Australia, a country falling in love with the sport in real time. It was evident by the way the team, fans, and internet embraced the new unofficial anthem of the USMNT. I think The Athletic reported it best:

It struck a chord with players.

“Part of being American is knowing ‘Country Roads,” defender Chris Richards said that afternoon. “We’re all singing it together.”

Fans latched on too, humming the tune, playing the video — of players and supporters soaking up the scene — on repeat ever since.

Immediately after the match, Spotify saw a 74% increase in streams of the song, a company spokesman told The Athletic.

Google searches for “Country Roads” also spiked on Friday afternoon, and have remained higher than usual levels.

A few days later, Fox’s Jenny Taft reported that the song was rolling from the office of U.S. coach Mauricio Pochettino.

The golden generation’s window is closing. The next group of players, hopefully better than the last, is going to inherit a country that knows how to show up. Whether that team lives up to the hype is the only thing left to find out.

Fair warning, I use “football” and “soccer” interchangeably in this one. Soccer is what we say here in America, and it’ll show up when the American context calls for it. If that’s bothersome, I’d argue that tension is actually kind of the whole point.

The World Cup is being played in the United States this summer. I’m not going to lie, I was pretty hyped after the convincing 4-1 win over Paraguay on Friday. I’ve never seen the U.S. Men’s National Team play so well.

Balogun is in the early lead to win the Golden Boot, Pulisic was splitting defenders and causing chaos, McKinnie was constantly running in behind the defense, Tillman and Freeman were quietly all over the field, and Adams and Richards provided the stability we needed. Sure, it was against a Paraguay team that doesn’t have expectations to do much in this tournament, but the dominant performance has gotten my hopes up as a fan.

In anticipation of the World Cup, Nike and Adidas released their newest commercials to get us riled up. The commercials were star-studded, both in pop culture and legends of the game.

Nike’s commercial is titled “Rip the Script,” a nod to the fluidity of the beautiful game. It celebrated the flair and unscripted nature of football. Adidas’s title, “Backyard Legends,” highlighted the street culture and improvisation of pickup games.

Nike and Adidas continued the Joga Bonito and Impossible is Nothing themes from years past, not in name, but in expressing the spiritual home of the game. They represent what football means. A coming together of cultures, people, and communities. A celebration of creativity and talent.

Some of my favorite football commercials growing up represented this as well. From the cage match and Brazil’s locker room, to Jose +10, and Ronaldinho’s ping pong game with himself, they all sold us the dream of the beautiful game. It can be played anywhere with anyone at any given moment.

But watch those commercials long enough and a question creeps in. When did an American kid last actually do any of that to a point where it is celebrated? There certainly isn’t a male American player prominently featured in any of the commercials.

You Can’t Teach Culture

The U.S. is still a country that considers American football, basketball, baseball, and maybe even hockey more important to the cultural fabric of society.

The easy narrative is that America’s best athletes don’t play football, as I’ve attempted to debunk in the past. A more refined argument is that the pay-to-play model locks out talent. The more nuanced perspective is that even if we solve for cost (which MLS academies are starting to address, if you are in the right geography, talented enough to make it, and can find a way to support yourself until academy age), we still have a soccer culture deficit.

American kids don’t grow up playing pickup soccer on the streets the same way kids do in the Brazilian favelas or the boroughs of London. That pickup culture is what makes countries like Brazil great at the sport.

At the epicenter of football in Brazil is futsal. With futsal courts about the same size as a basketball court, futsal can be played in crowded cities surrounded by apartment buildings. Futsal courts are bound to have cracks and potholes after years of wear and tear. With the uneven playing surface and small area, young Brazilian players learn how to dribble and play in tight spaces.

Pelé popularized the Portuguese phrase “Jogo Bonito,” meaning “the beautiful game.” Futsal is where much of the flair of the Brazilian game originated, with stars such as Pelé, Zico, Ronaldinho, and Neymar starting their careers playing futsal.

Carlos Alberto, the captain of the Brazilian team that won the World Cup in 1970, told the BBC:

“Football in Brazil is like a religion. This is the difference between Europe and Brazil. After the World Cup, people in Europe start to think about life, business. Here in Brazil, we breathe football 24 hours a day.”

Antony, a Brazilian playing for the storied Manchester United, said it best in The Players’ Tribune:

“The ball was my savior. My love from the cradle. We don’t care about toys for Christmas. Any ball that rolls is perfect to us...With a ball at my feet, I had no fear.”

In like manner, Adriano, a former Brazilian national team player, said:

“A ball was always at my foot. It was put there by God.”

In Brazil, everyone plays football — the kids, construction workers, drug dealers, and bus drivers. Dribbling a ball, everyone is equal, barefoot and all.

Soccer is not built into the culture of America like so much of the rest of the world. The aesthetics of the Nike and Adidas commercials have never been the reality for Americans. However, maybe this World Cup can slowly start to turn the tide. I mean, look at some of these Tweets and reactions after the Paraguay game:

Building Soccer in America

Look back at the 1994 World Cup on U.S. soil and what it did for soccer in America can give us a glimpse of what it can do for us in 2026.

When the U.S. bid to host the 1994 World Cup, FIFA made its position clear: you want the tournament, you build a league.

The U.S. had lacked a real professional soccer league since the North American Soccer League’s (NASL) demise in 1984. Major League Soccer was born out of that ultimatum, officially forming and beginning play in 1996. No World Cup, no MLS.

Soccer started to grow in popularity after the 1994 World Cup. In 1994, soccer ranked as America’s 67th favorite sport, right behind tractor pulling. However, soccer started to be televised more and more in America. Now, you can catch different leagues from all around the world on most of the major streaming platforms.

According to US Youth Soccer, there were more than 3 million registered youth soccer players in 2014, representing an almost 90% increase from 1990. In raw terms, that’s an additional 1.4 million kids playing over two and a half decades. Additionally, high school soccer participation increased fourfold among boys and 35-fold among girls from 1973 to 2014.

What drove this growth wasn’t just infrastructure. It was faces. American kids had players to look up to after the 1994 World Cup. Guys like Alexi Lalas, Cobi Jones, and Tony Meola became the heroes for a new generation of soccer fans. The U.S. women winning the World Cup in 1999, also hosted in the States, further introduced new faces to look up to.

Landon Donovan, widely considered one of the best American players ever, traced his obsession directly back to attending a ‘94 World Cup match as a kid.

The Ultimate Goal

Antony said the ball was his savior. Adriano said God put it at his feet. You don’t manufacture that relationship with a registration fee and Saturday morning orange slices.

America has spent thirty years building soccer from the top down. Leagues, youth clubs, television deals. It has produced real progress and real players. But the beautiful game was never built from the top. It was built in backyards, in favelas, and on cracked futsal courts.

The 1994 World Cup put soccer on screens that had never shown it before, in front of audiences that had never sought it out. Some of them stayed curious. Their kids grew up curious. And gradually, that curiosity compounded into something that has culminated in what we saw on Friday.

But the most exciting part is what happens next for U.S. soccer. The 2026 World Cup will be loud and bright and maybe, if things break right, genuinely historic for this country.

But what will it do for the next generation? Will the Nike and Adidas commercials actually play out here in the States? Will kids go out to their backyard to kick a soccer ball instead of throwing a football around? Will schools and parks start to build futsal courts instead of basketball courts? Will kids kick around anything that rolls?

This is the next phase of building a soccer culture in America. It needs to be ingrained into the DNA of our country. Build the culture. The rest will follow.

The Nile is generally considered a slow-moving river. It has a gradual slope over 4,000 miles. Wide channels slow the current. If you were to float it for hours, you’d pass kids playing on the bank, fishermen casting lines, and the quiet hum of everyday life moving alongside the water.

Near Murchison Falls in Uganda, the river is still broad. Boats cruise upstream without much effort. But as the falls approach, something shifts. The river narrows. The current quickens. The surface ripples and churns. Water is being pulled into a funnel until there’s just a 23-foot gap where the river has no choice but to fall. The result is one of the most powerful and visually dramatic waterfalls in all of Africa.

The NBA regular season is the Nile. 82 games between October and April. Teams rest stars on back-to-backs. Front offices purposefully lose as the Spring peaks through the cold winter months. Talk shows are filled with complaining about what the NBA used to be. And then April comes.

The playoffs are Murchison Falls.

It’s cliché to say, but the NBA playoffs are a fundamentally different sport than the regular season. Statistically and visually different. The stars come out to play. The intensity increases. The pace decreases. Referees swallow their whistles. And soon, basketball is back to how it’s supposed to be played. The NBA playoffs is all the pent-up energy from the regular season finally being released.

The numbers say it clearly. Last year I wrote and showed some interesting statistics that set the playoffs apart.

In all but two seasons since the 70s, there have been fewer possessions per game in the playoffs than in the regular season. Field goal percentages drop. Points per game drop. The game gets slower, harder, and uglier. And that’s just how we like it.

What the numbers are saying is that defenses are working harder. A few less possessions, points, and misses a game might not sound like much until you realize what it represents.

Energy and effort are the biggest differences on the defensive side of the ball. Players are giving maximum effort and expending more energy on a per-possession basis. Every play is being contested harder, guarded more carefully, and scouted more thoroughly. Everything is magnified.

Defense is the part of playoff basketball that doesn’t get enough credit. We know about the closers and shot-makers. But the history of the NBA playoffs is written just as much on the other end of the floor. We just saw the Detroit Pistons hold the Orlando Magic to 19 points in the second half to save their season. That’s what defense can do for teams in the playoffs.

It’s the small things that make all the difference in the playoffs. Take the example below of Rudy Gobert against the Denver Nuggets in the first round. He was masterful in the post against Nikola Jokic. But what I was really impressed by was the pressure he extended to other places on the court. Gobert could have been sitting back at the three-point line, but his defense at half court forced the turnover and led to transition points. The extended pressure is a sign of the sustained intensity needed on the defensive side of the ball in the playoffs.

Devin Vassell showed his defensive fight by getting back in transition in this play below. Instead of standing out and guarding Scoot Henderson out on the three-point line, he made sure he had a foot in the paint. You can see from the clip that he took a peek over his right shoulder and spotted Jrue Holiday sprinting towards the basket. He then anticipated the pass and jumped in front for the steal. Again, it’s small things like Vassell’s court awareness that can turn the tide in a playoff game.

Lastly, take a look at this sequence from the 76ers and Celtics. First, Paul George gets beat off the dribble. However, he sticks with the play and is able to poke the ball away from Jayson Tatum from behind. As the 76ers start their fast break, keep an eye on Derrick White in the upper left corner. He sprints the entire length of the court to get the chase-down block. Pure hustle from both George and White resulted in saved points. Sometimes it’s as simple as exerting a little more energy to keep your team’s season alive.

These plays don’t go viral. But they set up the ones that do. A bunch of small defensive plays throughout a series is what propels a team forward as a series reaches its climax.

After all the hard work throughout a series, sometimes we are blessed with a defensive play that lives on forever. These are the plays that are included in the pre-game montages for years to come. Here are a few worth remembering.

Michael Jordan’s steal on Karl Malone, 1998 Finals

Tayshaun Prince’s chase-down block on Reggie Miller, 2004 ECF

LeBron James’ block on Andre Iguodala, 2016 Finals

Jrue Holiday’s steal on Devin Booker, 2021 Finals

Draymond didn’t say there are 82-game players and 16-game players because of who scores. He said it because of who competes. Who can bring the physicality and focus necessary to make plays when it matters most? The playoffs reveal a player’s willingness to make the game hard for someone else. To do the little things that may or may not show up in the boxscore.

The regular season is a river. Long, wide, full of bends and calm currents. The playoffs are a waterfall. Everything that was moving slowly suddenly drops at once. Energy, effort, and defense are what make the playoffs so exhilarating.

You know that feeling when sports writing just hits different? Every so often, I round up the best content I’ve consumed. “Seven Wonders” is a Butterflies series where I share my favorites.

Happy March Madness! Though we have a lack of upsets, we have at least had competitive games played at very high levels. Tight finishes remind us we don’t need a Cinderella run to tune in. If you’re looking at your bracket in tears, here are seven pieces of sports writing that will take your mind off your poor judgment.

But first, some of my recent posts and a few relevant oldies from the archive:

North London Forever. Arsenal lost in the Carabao Cup final, but they still have a shot at the treble. More importantly, they are in a commanding lead in the Premier League and have a favorable path to go deep in the Champions League.

I Think We Can Fix College Basketball. This is from last year, but it is still relevant today. I break down a few small changes that can make the college basketball product more enjoyable to watch.

The 100-Point Game. It seems like many weren’t impressed with Bam Adebayo’s 83-point game a few weeks ago. This piece breaks down how Wilt Chamberlain scored his 100 back in the day. Spoiler alert: it was probably more gimmicky than Bam’s 83.

Victor Wembanyama: The dominance of international players in the NBA. I reflect on the rise and dominance of the international player in the NBA. Though this is older, it’s a fun read, given Victor Wembanyama is closing in on being one of the best players in the world.

The Fouling While Up Three Problem. I break down what the statistics say about fouling while up three. Plus, I share my thoughts on the excitement (lol) of watching the best athletes in the world line up at the free-throw line.

Soccer In Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. You don’t know pressure until you have played for Iraq during Saddam Hussein’s reign.

The Evolution of Unethical Hoops. A video breakdown of how players have adapted over the years to draw fouls, deceive referees, and optimize their game in the era of analytics.

And now, here are the seven (ok, I cheated) nine best things I’ve read in sports recently:

Cinderella Isn’t Dead Yet, But She’s On Life Support by . A case that the transfer portal, not NIL, is the real villain killing mid-major Cinderella runs, and what it would take to save the best underdog tradition in American sports.

Sweet 16 Possibilities by . KenPom breaks down the Sweet 16 and makes a compelling case that the upset dam is about to break, whether you want it to or not.

March Madness (Live from Somewhere Else) by . A look at what we’re giving up when March Madness trades packed campus gyms for massive neutral-site arenas.

MAGIC MOMENTS by . A love letter to the magic of football’s most improbable moments told through a 16-year-old named Max Dowman.

Fly Midway by . A raw breakdown of Arsenal’s Carabao Cup final collapse against Manchester City.

As Big as Chile by . The beautiful story of a tiny Serbian village football club that accidentally went viral in Chile and what it meant to a dying community.

VAR’s Crisis of Coherence by . An argument for why VAR making soccer more accurate has somehow made it less enjoyable, and what we’ve quietly lost by obligating the game to be correct.

The Colonial Logic of Brazilian Football by & . Brazil’s football decline isn’t a talent problem; it’s a structural one. Its best players are shipped abroad, leaving the domestic game hollow.

Game Management by @ . A data-driven breakdown of how NBA teams deploy timeouts, challenges, and fouls.

As of today, Arsenal sit seven points clear at the top of the Premier League with eight games remaining. They have a Carabao Cup final at Wembley in a few weeks. They’re through to the FA Cup quarterfinals. To top it off, they just completed a flawless eight wins in eight matches in the Champions League league phase, beating Bayern Munich, Atlético Madrid, and Inter Milan along the way. Plus, they have a clear path to the semifinals after a favorable draw.

The quadruple is within reach. You have to knock on wood after saying it, but it’s time to whisper it out loud.

No English club has ever done it. However, there is still a real possibility that the season ends with zero trophies. There is still everything to play for.

The Invincibles

In May 2004, Facebook was called thefacebook.com and was a small website only available to students at Harvard. The Boston Red Sox were still in the midst of their 86-year World Series drought. Everyone wanted a Motorola Razr, and American Idol was a TV hit.

Thierry Henry was sprinting around Highbury, turning fullbacks into statues. Patrick Vieira was patrolling the midfield like a nightclub bouncer. And Arsène Wenger was pacing the touchline in his puffer jacket and red tie.

Arsenal went the entire Premier League season unbeaten. They were nicknamed the Invincibles. They were the benchmark; the gold standard. If I were to tell an Arsenal supporter back then that they would still be waiting for another title, they wouldn’t have believed me. But they’ve been waiting ever since.

I recently read a comment on social media from an Arsenal supporter who made a deal with himself that he wouldn’t wear his 2003/04 Henry shirt until they won the Prem again. He thinks this is the year he’ll finally be able to wear his Invincibles shirt once more. Hopefully, it still fits him.

The dark days

After 2004, Arsenal spent the next 22 years winning the occasional FA Cup while watching Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City, Liverpool, and even Leicester trade the league title among themselves. The Gunners moved from Highbury to the Emirates in 2006, which forced the club to enter a self-imposed financial austerity that meant they couldn’t compete in the transfer market for top talent.

During the title drought, Wenger left. Then Unai Emery came and went. Finally, there was a brief Freddie Ljungberg appearance as an interim manager before Mikel Arteta was brought in.

During Arsenal’s time from winning a title until Arteta, they were still very good. They averaged over 71 points per campaign and usually finished in the top four. However, this is Arsenal. It’s not Brighton or even Tottenham. Supporters expect trophies and Premier League titles.

Arteta’s rejuvenation

Arteta took over Arsenal as a first-time manager on Boxing Day 2019. Arsenal were 10th in the table and looked nothing like a club with serious ambitions.

He inherited a dressing room with poor culture, an aging squad, and a fanbase that had lost trust in the institution. Over the next four years, he systematically rebuilt everything. He brought in the right players and adjusted his formation and tactics to fit the personnel he had.

Arteta slowly built a team that could defend from the front, create from deep, and stay compact and disciplined defensively. Arteta’s teams are a complete reversal of the technically gifted, but easily bullied Arsenal sides of the 2010s.

The transformation Arteta has created at Arsenal doesn’t look that much different if you look at the final points tally and position in the final table. In fact, during his time, Arsenal has finished slightly worse in the table than before he arrived. However, it’s the manner in which he has been building towards this season. Progress is visible. The team continued to push and work its way up the table.

Subscribe now

In 2022/23, Arsenal sat eight points clear at the top of the table with nine games remaining. It really did look like the wait was finally over. Then they blew two-goal leads against Liverpool and West Ham in back-to-back games, the first time Arsenal had ever done that in the Premier League era. They also drew at home to bottom-of-the-league Southampton, and got humbled 4-1 by City at the Etihad.

In 2023/24, the Gunners pushed City all the way to the final day, finishing just two points behind despite picking up 89 points, their highest-ever Premier League total. That year, they scored 91 league goals and held the best defensive record in the Premier League. They did almost everything right, but it still wasn’t enough.

In 2024/25, injuries and a red card epidemic derailed their campaign. Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard, Riccardo Calafiori, and Gabriel Magalhães had injuries that tested Arsenal’s depth. They dropped plenty of points from winning positions and couldn’t sustain a long run throughout the entire season, finishing 10 points behind Liverpool.

Three consecutive title challenges. Three consecutive failures. The mental weight of that was and still is real. Everyone is just waiting for a late-season collapse this season. But it hasn’t come yet. Arsenal are the clear favorites to win the League. Winning isn’t a distant hope anymore. It’s actually something that is starting to feel like a reality.

This year’s Arsenal is different. For one, they have true depth. They have added players throughout the squad who have been able to step up without a drop-off. Additions such as Martín Zubimendi, Eberechi Eze, Piero Hincapié, and Viktor Gyökeres have given the Gunners much-needed options when players go down with injuries.

Arsenal’s set pieces have also become a key aspect of their game. Though they are mocked in the media, they have put away the most set pieces in the Premier League this season. A goal is a goal, no matter how it comes. This article does a great job of breaking down Arsenal’s set-piece strategy.

Arsenal’s defense continues to be one of the best in the world. William Saliba and Gabriel have become one of the best center back pairings in Europe, and Timber is arguably one of the best right backs right now. David Raya is also good for at least one big save per game.

Arsenal certainly aren’t perfect, but they know how to win. And that’s what makes them one of, if not the best, team in Europe at the moment.

On the cusp of history

The quadruple has always felt like an impossible achievement in English football. Manchester United won the Treble in 1999. City matched it in 2019. Liverpool came agonizingly close in 2021/22, winning the League Cup and FA Cup before losing the Premier League on the final day and the Champions League in the final. Arsenal are closer to it right now than any English club in history, yet zero trophies is still a dark possibility.

The big one, though, is the Premier League. Just get that, and the 22-year drought hanging over the club will be over. Just win the Premier League, and nothing else will matter.

The NBA is under fire. And that’s a good thing. When people complain, it’s a sign they care.

My last post explored how offensive player movement has been manipulated to draw fouls, partly due to the growing influence of analytics. There has been a healthy debate as to whether analytics makes the sports viewing experience better or worse. Depending on who you ask, you will get different answers.

Either way, I think most fans can agree that we watch sports to be entertained. We watch to feel something. We want to live out our past glory days. Remember the game-winner we hit in our driveway, or if we’re lucky, our high school gymnasium.

Pause for a second and think about your favorite NBA games. It may be a player’s performance over the course of 48 minutes, or it may be some outstanding athletic feat. Most likely, it’s a memory as the time is running down.

We feel something when the games are tense, there is drama to be viewed, and the clock is about to hit zero. Everyone loves a last-second buzzer-beater. It’s what gets the fans jumping up and down wildly at the bar, in a living room, or in the arena.

One analytics movement has started to slowly remove buzzer beaters from the game—fouling while up three. It feels like more and more games are now ending at the free-throw line instead of with a well-executed and defended ATO. Those nail-bitters are now turning into snoozers, and it’s bad for the NBA product.

There have been several studies on the effectiveness of fouling while up three, a few of which I will review. The results of the studies haven’t always been the same, but I’ll explain why as we go along.

Math & Probabilities

An analysis was conducted 20 years ago by a math professor named Adrian Lawhorn. He used math and probability based on NBA shooting and offensive rebounding percentages.

Lawhorn played out the two scenarios of fouling while up three or defending straight up. He concluded that fouling while up three would result in teams being 4x more likely to win vs having the game go to overtime.

Still, for 20 years, most coaches didn’t view fouling while up three as a viable option. Data wasn’t as accessible and it wasn’t something teams seriously considered.

Not Segmenting the Data by Time Remaining

There is another group of studies that analyzed fouling while up three vs defending straight up based on historical winning percentage data for each scenario.

In 2008, another professor named Wayne Winston shared that one of his students observed the data of all NBA games between 2005 and 2008 in which a team was down three with under 10 seconds left.

Subscribe now

The leading team played defense 260 times and won 91.9% of the games. Of the 27 times the leading team fouled, they won 88.9% of the games. The analysis concluded that no definitive strategy was better or worse than the other, a drastically different outcome than the study two years prior.

Then, in 2013, Ken Pomeroy, a college basketball analytics guru, conducted his own study at the college level. He looked at all possessions when the team trailing by three had the ball with between five and 12 seconds left at the end of the second half or overtime.

The 676 teams that decided to defend won 93.5% of the time compared to 92.5% of the 138 teams that decided to foul. Again, a similar result to the 2008 study, with playing defense appearing like the slightly better strategy.

In 2020, Pomeroy wrote another article on the subject of fouling up three, but instead of looking at the data, he identified a loophole in the rule:

“One creative solution to the end-game conundrum is to foul up three and commit lane violations on the last free throw until the shooting team makes it. If you’re a rules wonk, you know that if the defense violates the lane, it’s only penalized if the shooting team misses. This is a feature and not a bug: The shooting team gets the result that benefits it — either a point or a do-over. But in the foul-up-three situation, it is a bug. The fouled team wants to miss, but it isn’t allowed to do so as long as there are violations.”

Intentionally committing lane violations hasn’t ever been a strategy I’ve seen used. However, if it does become a problem, changing the rule to call a technical foul for intentionally gaming the rules would quickly fix the loophole.

Lastly, additional analysis was conducted on NBA data in 2024. Researchers looked at games when a team was leading by three with 24 or fewer seconds remaining. Teams that elected to play defense won the game 93% of the time. Teams that fouled won 92% of the time.

It is clear that there isn’t much difference between fouling and playing defense when the data isn’t segmented by time remaining. Still, all three studies suggest playing defense might have a better winning percentage.

As you will see, though, analyzing the data using a different methodology yields a different result.

Evaluating Probabilities Based on Remaining Time

Another group of studies considers the exact time remaining in the game when deciding whether fouling or defending is the better strategy.

In 2018, Patrick McFarlane, an analyst of the Philadelphia Phillies, looked at NBA games and found that with about 36 seconds remaining, playing defense gives the team up three a 3.5% better chance of winning than fouling would.

However, at around nine seconds, intentionally fouling becomes the optimal strategy. With one second remaining, fouling gives the team up three a 9.2% better chance compared to defending regularly.

Obviously, fouling with only one second remaining can be trickier said than done because you are more likely to foul a shooter. However, the principle remains the same—stick with traditional defense until around nine seconds remain in the game.

A similar analysis was conducted in 2022 with college basketball data. The study observed three-point games with 16 seconds or fewer remaining when the losing team had the ball. It sorted the data based on teams that chose to defend and allow a three-point attempt vs teams that fouled, leading to foul shots. Similar to McFarlane’s analysis, it cut the data based on the time remaining in the game.

For games between 0-12 seconds, fouling while up three doubled the chances of winning in regulation vs having the game go to overtime. Fouling between 12-16 seconds remaining actually flipped the script, with a higher percentage of games going to overtime.

The Optimal Strategy

Each of these studies has slightly different timeframes and datapoints. But as you can see, cutting the data by time remaining in the game sheds new light on the fouling while up three vs defending strategy.

It is reasonable to believe that a well-trained analytics department can analyze the data and instruct a coaching staff when to foul vs not, depending on how much time is left on the clock. Based on the mounting evidence, determining a team’s strategy based on the time remaining seems to be the correct decision.

It’s only a matter of time before we see almost every team perfect the fouling while up three strategy. With the mountains of data now available to the public and as coaches come under more scrutiny for their decisions (or lack thereof), coaches will almost always do what the probabilities suggest.

The Best Outcome for Fans

Still, as mentioned at the beginning of this post, I wondered out loud if this strategy is good for basketball. Nail-biters are turning into snoozers as the final minute of the 4th quarter is turning into 20-minute ordeals.

So, what are we to do?

The NBA changed rules after the Hack-a-Shaq trend in the early 2000s, penalizing teams for intentionally fouling a player off the ball in the final two minutes. Doing so would result in one free throw and the ball back for the offensive team.

The NBA clearly wants the game to be more entertaining. Just look at how defenses are hamstrung nowadays.

There are possible avenues to make a rule change to eliminate fouling while up three. It’s just not as straightforward as the Hack-a-Shaq rule change.

The NBA might learn a thing or two by observing FIBA, which has what they call an unsportsmanlike foul. Its rulebook states:

“An unsportsmanlike foul is a player contact which, in the judgment of a referee, is contact with an opponent and not legitimately attempting to directly play the ball within the spirit and intent of the rules.”

The NBA could implement something similar, which would result in free throw(s) and the ball. It would incentivize more aggressive defense, which I view as a positive. But should this rule be applied to both teams or just the team winning at the end of the game? Or should it be applied throughout the whole game?

The challenge is that it becomes more of a judgment call for referees. Introducing more judgment will lead to mistakes. It could also lead to more intentional fouls disguised as normal fouls.

I’m not here with all the answers. You can scour the internet and see many different suggestions—using Elam scoring in the 4th quarter, allowing offensive teams to decline free throws similar to teams declining penalties in football, etc.

All have some sort of flaw that doesn’t quite sit right with me. Surely, there are people smarter than me whom the NBA can employ to figure it out. I hope so. I’d like to get back to more exciting late-game drama.

For a better reading experience (especially for watching videos and reading charts), read on the Butterflies website or download the Substack app.

Modern NBA foul baiting isn’t a player problem. It’s a rule-incentive problem.

Last Spring, I wrote about how we can fix college basketball. I argued the game was too choppy with too many stoppages compared to the NBA. While the NBA is much more entertaining and watchable, foul baiting is starting to destroy the sanctity of the game.

Over time, the NBA has shifted from a league where fouls punished excessive defensive contact to one where fouls increasingly reward offensive manipulation.

Fouls used to stop defenders from clobbering scorers. Now they reward offenses for creating contact defenders can’t avoid.

Foul manipulation has evolved in three phases:

1. Defensive deception (flopping)

2. Offensive exploitation of defensive mistakes

3. Illegal contact initiated by the offensive player

Defensive deception (flopping)

Back in the 70s and 80s, the NBA allowed much more contact. But slowly things started to change and players found ways to manipulate the game on the defensive side of the ball. Enter the art of the flop. The point of the flop is to sell the contact that is being made—to make the refs believe that the contact being made is illegal.

Players such as Valde Divac, Bill Laimbeer, and Dennis Rodman were the poster children for flopping. And it worked.

It’s difficult to say where the flop originated from; however, Divac is often cited by players as the one who took flopping to the next level.1 Once one player had success with it, it spread like wildfire.

In more recent times, offensive players have used flopping to sell foul calls. Manu Ginobili was one of the best floppers in modern times, often whipping his head back with minimal contact.2

In 2012, the NBA attempted to ban flopping with new rules and fines. The rule has gone through its iterations, but it hasn’t been very effective other than targeting a few culprits. The new rule had been so underutilized that in the first 10 years of the rule’s existence, only 31 total players had been fined.

In the 2023-24 season, the NBA implemented a non-unsportsmanlike technical foul for flopping, which has been called more frequently. Still, it hasn’t been utilized enough to eliminate flopping from the game. I get it. Calling a flopping technical foul every three minutes would get really old and bog down the flow of the game. Still, rewarding flops less often would slowly start to eliminate it from the bag of tricks players use.

Offensive exploitation of defensive mistakes

In 2004, the NBA banned defensive hand-checking, paving the way for more physical play from defenders to be punished. Officiating became more and more favorable for offenses. Defenders were now required to give offensive players space and freedom of movement was prioritized.

The rule change allowed offensive players to more easily exploit defensive mistakes. Offensive players could use moves to create situations were illegal contact was made by the defender. With this, defenders are the ones committing the foul, but the offensive player initiates moves to get defenders in a position where a foul is inevitable.

Players like Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, and Dwyane Wade utilized the pump fake to get defenders in the air and off balance. They would then use that to their advantage and go up into a shooting motion while defenders were on their way down or out of position, creating illegal contact and drawing fouls. Yes, the pump fake has been in the game since the 60s, but modern players have perfected it to get to the foul line.

Chris Paul is another one of the pioneers for making defenders initiate illegal contact with his masterful body control. He often used his speed to blow by defenders, cut them off, and then slow down to draw contact once the defender was on his hip. This caused illegal body contact created by the defender being out of position.

Although the herky-jerky, start-stop strategy of Chris Paul is starting to be removed from the game, I believe that exploiting defensive mistakes is still ethical because it utilizes smart offensive moves to make the defender initiate the contact first.

Illegal contact initiated by the offensive player

The early 2010s marked the real turning point. Analytics reframed offense around efficiency. Teams became smarter about seeking efficient shots and started to eliminate mid-range shots from the game. Pretty soon, layups, three pointers, and free throws became the focal point of offenses. And nothing was more efficient than free throws. has previously written about this and shared efficiency data on it.

Once teams realized this, the goal shifted from solely creating good shots to also creating fouls. This shift changed everything. It was only a matter of time before players figured out new ways to get to the foul line.

The difference now is that offensive players don’t just exploit defensive mistakes to draw fouls. They also initiate the illegal contact first, even when defenders are in legal guarding positions. This is what has given so many fans fits. It’s almost as if the defender can’t do anything about it. Their existence in the vicinity of the offensive player is the sin that compels the referee to blow the whistle.

Players have now added to their arsenal of offensive manipulation to initiate contact and get foul calls. Here are the ways they are doing it:

Shooting-based manipulation

Jumping into the defender while shooting: Players will unnaturally contort their body to make contact with a defender while shooting. This tactic is utilized most often after a successful pump fake, but it has been taken to the next level. However, it's clearly unnatural and not how players usually shoot a jump shot. The Association has cut back on this a bit, but it’s still rampant in the game today.3

Rip through: The rip through was perfected by Chris Paul when in a triple threat position.4 When a defender is guarding and has their hands out in front, the offensive player rips their arms from one side of their body to the other, making contact with the defender on the way through. Offensive players then pull up into a shot and easily get to the free-throw line. This tactic became too common and a cheat to get an easy shooting foul, so the NBA changed the rules for this to be a non-shooting foul.

Unnatural shooting motion: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has iterated on the rip-through move Chris Paul perfected. The unnatural shooting motion can start from any body position instead of in a triple threat position. SGA is great at using his off-hand to raise up and create contact as if he is going into a shooting motion.5 The move is completely unnatural to how anyone raises up to shoot, but that's obviously the point. He isn't actually trying to score in these situations. He's just trying to create contact to get a shooting foul call.

Spatial manipulation

Leg kick on jump shots: Shooters will extend their legs in unnatural ways to try to draw contact with the defender and get the foul call.6 Reggie Miller had some of this offensive initiated contact in his game when he would kick out his leg on jump shots, but the physical play in the game at the time kept the foul baiting in check. The Association is doing a better job of catching this trick and calling offensive fouls, but pretty much everyone does it and it happens regularly.

Extending landing space: According to the rules, defenders need to allow space for shooters to land. Thank Zaza Pachulia for that. However, some jump shooters will jump forward and land unnaturally, seeking contact with the defender in hopes of drawing a foul.7

Driving-based manipulation

Driving into arm contact: When an offensive player comes hard off a pick and roll, it creates mismatches with the smaller ball handler attacking a big. The point is to crossover and attack the front foot of the defender as they are in their defensive stance. After crossing over and attacking the front foot, offensive players will pick up the ball low and sweep their arms up to make contact with the defender's arm.8 Defenders will oftentimes reach in, but sometimes the offensive player just sweeps their arms up to make contact when the defender is in a legal guarding position. James Harden perfected this move, and now many are doing it, including rising players such as Deni Avdija.

Arm hook: Ah, the old arm hook. James Harden perfected hooking the arm of defenders, usually on drives. He would then raise up, causing contact that made it appear the defender was reaching in.9 Referees have figured it out and clamped down on this offensive player initiated contact, but it still happens regularly.

Hip/shoulder bump: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may not have invented the subtle hip/shoulder bump, but he certainly has perfected it. He initiates contact while driving and then exaggerates the contact to get the call.10 Defenders are left helpless without any room to avoid the contact.

Let’s fix the game

Flopping and offensive players initiating contact…

Some of these techniques have been dealt with after the 2021 rule change on non-basketball moves. But players adapt and will always find new techniques to draw fouls. As long as the incentives of foul baiting remain, new unnatural contact will be drawn by offensive players.

If the NBA truly wants to eliminate foul baiting from the game, it will have to adopt rules similar to FIBA. The NBA prioritizes offensive freedom. FIBA prioritizes the flow of the game. The NBA rewards trickery and offensive aggression. FIBA punishes players who make initial contact.

The NBA didn’t just overcorrect when it eliminated hand-checking; it rewarded deception. In trying to free offenses, it created a system where initiating contact is just as valuable as creating open shots. Until the league realigns incentives toward ethical basketball, players will continue to exploit every gray area available to them.

The NBA needs to get back to a game where defenses have a chance. Physicality should be a part of the game. It makes for a better flowing and more entertaining game. Fans didn’t fall in love with basketball because of whistles. The post–2024 All-Star break officiating showed that when the game is allowed to breathe, it’s still as beautiful as ever.

Every fan loves to relive unforgettable sports moments. I am honoring that nostalgia with a Butterflies series called “Replays.” Each edition will revisit a special sports memory, add context, and share reactions and commentary surrounding it.

Context

Ok, maybe this wasn’t one of the best sports moments. Quite the opposite. I don’t necessarily feel nostalgic for this Replays edition, but it was such a defining moment in the NBA that I feel compelled to take a look back. It’s one of those YouTube videos you visit every few years and think, “Wow, that actually happened.”

Just over 21 years ago, the Detroit Pistons and Indiana Pacers were among the elite teams in the NBA. They met for an early-season matchup on November 19, 2004.

The season prior (2003-04), Detroit won their first championship since the “Bad Boy” Pistons won back-to-back titles in 1989 and 1990. The Pistons beat the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals in six games on their way to lifting the Larry O’Brien trophy.

The Pacers proved they measured up and reignited the rivalry that had been building steam for years. With under a minute left in the 4th quarter, they had a 15-point lead and were ready to leave Detroit with a statement win.

What happened next has been immortalized in infamy.

The Moment

Reactions

Following the brawl, multiple Pacers players were suspended, which effectively erased Indiana’s chances of contending for a title. Ron Artest never returned to his previous form and was eventually traded during the 2005-26 season. The Malice and the Palace was a turning point for the Pacers, which led to a semi-rebuild until a player by the name of Paul George was drafted in 2010.

The incident also influenced rule and policy changes, including stricter arena security, limits on alcohol sales, and a greater emphasis on player conduct and image.

SportsCenter, the premier sports show at the time, reacts

Grantland’s oral history

Ron Artest shares behind-the-scenes details

Ron Artest on his biggest regret

Mike Breen on calling the Malice at the Palace

Comment Section

Free Kobbie Mainoo.

That’s what I said back on August 30th at the beginning of the new Premier League season. And I still feel the same now.

Football/soccer is a funny sport. It is much more common for a regular starter with one manager to fall out of favor with another manager compared to, say, a sport like basketball. It’s difficult to imagine an instrumental starter on a basketball team being completely removed from the rotation once a new coach is hired.

Yet, that is what has happened at Manchester United with Mainoo. Yes, young prospects come and go after an initial promising stint all the time. But not all play for England and prove themselves at the highest levels of competition at just 19 years old.

That’s what Mainoo and Manchester United fans are grappling with this season. A once promising up-and-coming star who was a bright spot during a bleak Erik ten Hag era is now struggling to get on the pitch for longer than a few minutes at a time. United’s starboy is now forgotten and treated as second-class by its current manager.

Benching in Football

One could argue that Manchester United’s midfield has been worse without Mainoo. United has had its challenges with Bruno Fernandes and Casemiro, but for various reasons, they are both favored over Mainoo.

Changes in player personnel in football are easier to justify because individual football players have far less impact on winning compared to other sports. This stems largely from football’s structure, with 11 players per side on a large field. The game emphasizes team coordination, possession, and player depth, making it harder for one player to dominate and easier for teams to absorb replacements without catastrophic drops in performance.

Contrast this with basketball, where only five players are on the court, and the best player has the ball the majority of the time. The same concept happens with American football. The quarterback touches the ball every offensive play, thus impacting winning at a much higher clip than any other player on the field.

A 2014 study analyzed professional teams across basketball, football, and baseball to examine how the proportion of elite players affects win-loss records. The findings highlight why football (and basketball to an extent) limits individual dominance, whereas baseball, where teamwork is limited, has a positive winning impact with talent accumulation.

In football, top talent generally improves team performance. However, at a certain point, there are diminishing returns, and adding more stars can even hurt performance. Just look at what is happening at Liverpool right now.

In sports where teammates must coordinate heavily to succeed, too many high-status or star players may lead to teamwork issues. Another way of putting it is that there is only one ball to go around.

So, why does this matter in the case of players like Mainoo? Because team fit and coordination matter more than raw talent alone. Mainoo may be deserving of being on the field, but Amorim is prioritizing the system over his young talent (even if many disagree with it).

In football, talent isn’t always the only lever for success, especially on any given matchday. Great coaching, chemistry, tactics, and cohesion can be just as important. The baffling thing with Mainoo is that it appeared that he was developing into one of the next great England midfielders. Now, he’s not even in the conversation to make England’s World Cup squad.

Subscribe now

The Rise of Kobbie Mainoo

Mainoo is a local boy. Born and raised in the Greater Manchester area. He was scouted by Manchester United and signed before he even hit double digits. In 2023, he was named the club’s young player of the year.

Mainoo made his senior team debut in the 2022/23 season, starting in a Carabao Cup win over Charlton. He appeared about a month later as a substitute in the Premier League in a victory against Leicester City. However, his breakthrough came in the 2023/24 season. He made 35 appearances across all competitions for Manchester United, starting all but three of those games. He scored five goals and had three assists, mainly from a CDM role. One of those goals came in the FA Cup Final against crosstown rival, Manchester City, which helped seal the win for United.

Mainoo was nominated for the Premier League Young Player of the Season award alongside Cole Palmer, Erling Haaland, Alexander Isak, Phil Foden, Bukayo Saka, William Saliba, and Destiny Udogie. He ended up losing out to Cole Palmer, but being among this group of names shows the type of class he had during his breakout season.

During the summer, he represented England at just 19 years of age at Euro 2024. He quickly earned playing time in the group stage matches and ended up starting throughout the knockout stages of the tournament. He set records for being among the youngest players to play for England in a major tournament, including starting in the final.

The 2024/25 club campaign started with Mainoo solidified as a key player at United. Having come off a deep Euro run in which he was a key piece of the England midfield, expectations were high. However, in early October, he was sidelined for almost two months with an injury. While recovering from his injury, Erik ten Hag was sacked, and Rúben Amorim was brought in as the new manager. After returning from injury, Mainoo slowly saw his minutes diminish until he was only playing sporadically off the bench by the end of the season.

At the time of publishing, we are now over three months into the 2025/26 season, and Mainoo has only recorded 177 minutes in eight Premier League games, all off the bench.

Despite his lack of playing time over the last year, he’s still in at least the 85th percentile for progressive carries, successful take-ons, touches in the penalty area, and progressive passes received among midfielders in the top five European leagues. Something that should be praised, given how difficult it is to get into a rhythm with inconsistent minutes.

The Rise of Rúben Amorim

Amorim retired from playing in 2017 and quickly stepped into management. He secured his first managerial job in 2018 for Casa Pia in Portugal’s third division. After defeats in his first two games as the manager, he almost quit, saying he wasn’t cut out for the job. After being convinced to stay, he changed his system to a back three, which has shaped his tactical thinking to this day. He ended up winning the third division and was promoted.

The next year, he joined Braga to coach its reserve side, but took over the first team after only a few months. Then, in March 2020, Sporting made Amorim one of the most expensive manager hires at the time, snatching him away from Braga. Amorim delivered by winning the league during his first full season in charge. By 2023/24, he delivered another league title, and there began to be rumblings of what he could do as a manager outside of Portugal.

Liverpool reportedly explored signing Amorim, but never agreed with his philosophy of playing with a back three. Additionally, it is reported that Amorim took part in talks with West Ham.

Sir Jim Ratcliffe, a British billionaire and lifelong Manchester United fan, founded INEOS in 1998 as a chemicals and manufacturing giant. On December 24, 2023, Manchester United announced Ratcliffe’s £1.03 billion ($1.3 billion) deal for a 25% stake (later increased to 27.7% with additional investment), plus $300 million for infrastructure. The deal was ratified by the Premier League and FA and completed on February 20, 2024. This gave INEOS full oversight of sporting matters, including coaches, players, and recruitment.

Ultimately, after a poor start to the 2024/25 campaign, Manchester United was in search of a new manager. Amorim was their man for the job and was hired on November 1, 2024. A short six years after starting his coaching career, Amorim was now the man pulling the strings for arguably the second biggest club in the world.

INEOS has certainly made its mark in its short tenure in charge, targeting and signing Amorim. Ratcliffe praised Amorim as an “outstanding young manager“ and pledged three years to implement his vision, emphasizing patience over quick decisions.

Since taking over, INEOS has backed Amorim and made changes on the pitch. Players such as Rashford, Garnacho, Antony, and Hojlund all fell out of favor in Amorim’s new system. All have since left the club on either a permanent transfer or load and have found success elsewhere.

What’s Next for Mainoo

Despite some recent success, United still sits only 10th in the Premier League at the time of writing. It is clear that Amorim is in the good graces of INEOS for the time being. If it’s ever a choice between Mainoo (and the academy) or Amorim, Amorim is always going to win. Just look at the players who he has dumbed by the wayside.

Rumors are constantly swirling around Mainoo and whether he will be granted the loan he so desires. Who knows, the prospects of a transfer might be on the horizon soon too. I fully expect Amorim to continue to rebuild Manchester United in a way that better fits his system. Mainoo will probably be a casualty. But as I said back on August 30th, it’s likely for the best for his future.

You know that feeling when sports writing just hits different? Every so often, I round up the best content I’ve consumed. “Seven Wonders” is a Butterflies series where I share my favorites.

The air is crisp, and the evenings carry a gentle chill. It is definitely fall, one of the best times of the year for sports fans. We just finished up a classic World Series that has brought the conversation back to baseball. The NBA has started, and football and soccer are in full swing.

I haven’t shared some of my favorite articles I’ve come across since the summer, so here they are for your reading pleasure.

But first, here are some of my recent posts you may have missed:

The NBA Gambling Problem Will Continue. We will see more gambling-related scandals. Adam Silver has a lot to do to make things right.

The Kevin Durant Paradox. KD is one of the best to ever play. But why does his career feel so unfulfilled? I identify some of the weaknesses in his game and share why his journeyman career is sad, but shouldn’t be the focus of his legacy.

How England’s Top Flight Became Europe’s Super League. A few years ago, a proposed European Super League was abandoned in part due to the backlash from fans. Now, a Super League is being built right under our noses.

Liverpool and the Anfield Cauldron. A look into the effect Anfield plays in Liverpool’s success by breaking down the numbers.

FC Red Bull: More Than an Energy Drink. How Red Bull has built a multi-club empire that both disrupts traditional football models and raises ethical questions.

Dame Time, One Last Time. As a Blazers fan, I reflect on Dame’s move back to Portland and how I love the move despite it not making a ton of sense from a roster-building perspective.

ICYMI: Check out my new series, “Replays,” where I revisit a special sports memory, add context, and share commentary and reactions surrounding it.

And now, here are the seven best things I’ve read in sports recently:

The Utah Jazz Killed NBA Black Uniforms? by . A fascinating inside look from the NBA’s first Creative Director on the evolution of the black uniform and why David Stern banned it for 14 years.

Ghana’s broken football dreams: why an African nation will never win the World Cup by (Howard Akumiah and James Corbett). Having spent some time in Ghana myself, this is an engaging read on the history of Ghanaian soccer and the challenges facing the game in the West African country.

Scattered Scandal Thoughts: The Vision Imperative by . Amidst the NBA betting scandal, explore the moral dilemmas and the impact of visibility into what is happening in the gambling world.

Breaking down ‘The Decision’ by . My wife and in-laws are big Mariners fans, so this hits close to home. Joe breaks down the crucial choices that doomed the Seattle Mariners in Game 7 of the ALCS, leaving them to head home for the winter.

Alisson Becker and German Emigration to Brazil by . Learn how Alisson Becker’s German ancestry and the broader history of German migration to Brazil reflect deeper threads of identity, sport, and diaspora in Brazilian society.

Why the Copa Libertadores Is a Greater Club Competition Than the Champions League by . Experience the sights and sounds of the Copa Libertadores, South America’s biggest and most prestigious club tournament.

Do Timeouts Stop Opponent Runs? by . A great breakdown for data nerds on the effectiveness of calling timeouts to stop scoring runs in the NBA.

Emergency post! I woke up to several texts from friends and family about Chauncey Billups and was immediately distracted from doing anything productive during my typical morning routine. Can the NBA go 24 hours without drama? Apparently not. I couldn’t not write a post about my feelings as a Portland Trail Blazers fan. Apologies if there are any typos or grammatical errors; I’m currently writing this at midnight.

In case you missed it, Chauncey Billups, Terry Rozier, and Damon Jones were arrested by the FBI for allegations involving illegal gambling with the mafia and providing information/manipulating bets on NBA games. I usually try to withhold judgement until proven guilty (see the current Malik Beasley situation), but this feels pretty damning.

Billups is probably the highest profile arrest for sports gambling since Tim Donaghy, certainly since it was widely legalized. He’s not only a Hall of Fame basketball player, but also a coach who can easily influence basketball games based on his personnel decisions, similar to a referee. Chauncey even had a Freudian slip in his post-game press conference (start at 5:11). You can’t write a better script than this.

What We Know

The details are still murky, and new information is coming to light every hour, but the gist of it is that the FBI arrested Billups yesterday morning, hours after the Blazers’ season-opening game.

The FBI has been investigating an illegal gambling and sports rigging operation that spans 11 states. In total, over 30 people have been arrested, including 13 members of La Cosa Nostra (Italian mafia).

Billups is being accused of being involved in a rigged poker scheme where he was the set-up guy, along with other former famous athletes, to lure rich people to participate and be scammed. It is alleged that he received a kickback for his efforts.

The rigged poker games included altered shuffling machines, poker chip trays that read cards through hidden cameras, contact lenses and glasses that could read marked cards, and even an X-ray poker table that could read cards that were face down.

Additionally, there is suspicion that Billups was involved in providing insider information for gamblers to place bets that the Blazers would lose a game in 2023. The following excerpt is from Yahoo Sports:

On March 24, 2023, the Portland Trail Blazers played the Chicago Bulls in a game that was all but irrelevant for both teams.

Prior to the game an individual identified as “Co-Conspirator 8” told one of the defendants, Eric Earnest, that “the Trail Blazers were going to be tanking to increase their odds of getting a better draft pick in the upcoming NBA draft.”

Co-Conspirator 8 informed Earnest, prior to the news becoming public, that several of the Blazers’ best players would not be playing. According to the indictment, Earnest gave the inside information to Marves Fairley, another defendant, for the purposes of betting on the game. Fairley promised to pay Earnest at least $5,000 if the bets paid off.

Fairley and another defendant, Shane Hennen, along with another individual termed “Co-Conspirator 1” who was an NBA player at the time, then placed approximately $100,000 worth of bets against the Blazers.

The Bulls won the game decisively, 124-96, as many of the Blazers’ best players, including Damian Lillard, did not play. Both Lillard and Nurkic were shut down for the season starting with the March 24 game.

A question looming over this game: Who is Co-Conspirator 8?

The indictment identifies Co-Conspirator 8 as “a resident [of] Oregon” and “an NBA player from approximately 1997 through 2014, and an NBA coach since at least 2021.”

Chauncey Billups played in the NBA for multiple teams from 1997 through 2014. He has been the head coach of the Portland Trail Blazers since 2021.

My Thoughts

Remember, this isn’t the first time Chauncey has gotten into legal trouble. He was accused of rape in 1997, which caused quite an uproar from a segment of Blazers fans when he was originally hired.

If you know my Blazers fandom, you know I’ve never been much of a Billups fan. Obviously, I don’t condone crime (I don’t even think I knew about his rape allegations until he was in the running to be hired as the Blazers coach), but most of my original dislike for him was his inability to coach.

Early in his second season as the Blazers’ coach, I remember texting my brother-in-law something to the effect of, “I don’t think Chauncey can coach.” His rotations were weird, the offense was stagnant, and overall, he just seemed a little clueless.

As all the news broke yesterday morning, I joked with that same brother-in-law that maybe the Blazers’ new, incoming manager agreed with me about Billups’ coaching abilities and called in the tip to the FBI. Others on X certainly were getting in on the fun for other infamous NBA executives.

Billups’ coaching identity didn’t really form until about eight months ago, right after the All-Star break last season. That’s when the Blazers’ defense was one of the best in the league, and Portland started to win games. Ever since, the Blazers have focused all their efforts on making defense their top priority. Billups has really taken on the persona of a defense-first coach, and his reputation was starting to spread around the league. Just check out what Anthony Edwards said after the season opener (start at 2:45).

With these new developments, it feels like all the progress the Blazers have made over the last eight months is now in jeopardy. Tiago Splitter was just named as the interim head coach, but I’m of the opinion that the Blazers need to act quickly to find a new permanent head coach. Portland can’t be in limbo for a whole season unless the plan now is to tank.

However, after watching the pre-season and the opening game of the regular season, I think the team will be too good. Plus, these young players need to feel the pressure of playing in at least a few semi-important games to grow, develop, and learn how to win. The dark cloud of Billups will only be lifted if the Blazers move on quickly by hiring a new coach sooner rather than later. And hey, if Billups was manipulating games, maybe the silver lining is that the Blazers are better than we think!

Tonight, the Golden State Warriors visit the Portland Trail Blazers. Terry Stotts, the Blazers’ head coach preceding Billups, is now an assistant on the Warriors’ sideline. It certainly is funny the way this all unfolded. I wouldn’t be surprised if he sips a beer as he watches the game. IYKYK.

I know I’ve been focused on the basketball implications of all of this, but I don’t think that’s what the story is really about. It’s about the gambling problem the NBA is having, and honestly, the society that has welcomed it with open arms.

Advertisements for gambling sites are everywhere. Sports commercials, sports podcast sponsors, newsletters dedicated to it, on the bottom ESPN ticker as the Billups news broke, and the list goes on. Unless the NBA and the states take a complete U-turn on legalized sports gambling, things will only get worse.

Literally this week, the NCAA announced that it will now allow college athletes to bet on professional sports starting November 1st. We are going to have a whole generation of college athletes who will become addicted to gambling and take that behavior with them as they enter the professional ranks. It’s a disaster waiting to happen.

As Zach Lowe said, “This is going to be a before and after day in the history of sports and gambling in basketball.” The choice of whether this is a slippery slope or a brick wall will come down to how these scandals are handled.

If you want to read more about the history, scandal, and impact of sports betting, check out my post from last year below.

Ah, the NBA is back, and it feels so good.

Kevin Durant has spent his entire career chasing something he may never catch. Not points or accolades, those come easily, but a kind of peace that no jersey swap has ever delivered. Now, he’s in Houston. Another team, another clean slate. The Rockets have received a fair amount of pre-season hype because Durant is now on the roster. But I have my doubts.

Durant entered the league as a lanky kid who famously couldn’t bench press 185 pounds even once at the Draft Combine. Contrast that image with Greg Oden, a big, burly center out of Ohio State, with whom Durant was competing to be the top pick in the draft. It’s hard to recall a conversation in which Durant and Oden were mentioned in the same sentence, which highlights how long Durant has been at it. A constant while the league around him changes.

Durant has graced us with his smooth jumper. His ability to get to his spot at will. His underrated trash-talking, especially to rookies. The memeable faces he makes. His Team USA moments. And his time will likely be coming to an end very soon.

Everyone knows about the impact Kevin Durant has on a basketball game. To such an extent that all you have to do is say his name, and you know it means trouble for the opposition. Durant reminded everyone what he’s capable of when he broke down a first-round series against the Clippers.

Then, after losing the hard-fought series, Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams wholeheartedly admitted that sometimes all you can do is watch while Durant performs his craft.

There’s no question Durant is a generational talent. However, his legacy (I hate to use that word) is a complicated one. The thing that still has me scratching my head is that his career reads like a masterpiece missing its final chapter. Though he did win two championships and two Finals MVPs, they will forever be tainted in the eyes of fans because it happened after joining a 73-9 Warriors team that had his former teammate calling him a cupcake.

Shouldn’t Durant, who was a top 1-3 player in the world for 5-10 years, have at least one championship outside of his Warriors runs? Especially when he has played with future Hall of Famers such as James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Kyrie Irving, and Devin Booker, all while they were in or near their primes? You would think someone considered a top 15ish player of all-time would have a signature championship run.

In my view, Durant has had an unbelievable career, but hasn’t impacted winning at an elite level. However, I wanted to go deep to see if my thinking was correct. I first researched his career and the circumstances surrounding each of his tenures with different teams.

Oklahoma City Thunder (2008-2016)

Durant led a young up-and-coming Thunder team to the 2012 Finals. The road to the Finals included beating heavyweight teams who had been there, done that. The Thunder swept the defending NBA champion, the Dallas Mavericks, in the first round. Then in the Second Round, they beat Kobe and the LA Lakers, who were two years removed from back-to-back championships. Finally, they beat the favored San Antonio Spurs, who were in the midst of their dynastic run during the Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili era. Unfortunately, for Durant and the Thunder, they fell short in the NBA Finals to LeBron, Wade, and Bosh.

Subscribe now

During his time in Oklahoma City, Durant and the Thunder made the Western Conference Finals an additional three times (2011, 2014, 2016), but 2012 was the only season they made it to the Finals. The Thunder were plagued with injuries that impacted their playoff hopes, including Westbrook being out for the 2013 playoffs and Durant missing most of 2014/15 with a foot injury.

The Thunder’s best chance at making the Finals again came in 2016 when they blew a 3-1 series lead to the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors ended up blowing their own 3-1 lead in the Finals, which eventually led to Durant signing with Golden State after the infamous Draymond Green recruitment call.

Durant’s Thunder time probably should be viewed as a young, overachieving team that couldn’t get over the hump and eventually ran into superior teams in the Heat and Warriors. In my opinion, Durant is off the hook for not winning a championship in Oklahoma City, even though falling short in 2016 feels like a failure.

Brooklyn Nets (2020-2023)

For a while, Durant seemed to have what he always wanted. Freedom. Rings. Validation. But even surrounded by the game’s purest form of basketball in Golden State, something in him, and us, never settled.

After three years with the Warriors and a season lost to a torn Achilles, Durant stepped on the court for the Brooklyn Nets in search of winning on his own terms.

When he teamed up with Harden and Irving, it looked like the Nets would be competing for championships for the foreseeable future. However, injuries and off-court drama changed all of that. Durant only played a little over half his games over two seasons, and Irving had issues with the COVID vaccine and an antisemitic social media post. Eventually, all three stars requested trades.

Ultimately, injuries and off-court drama derailed what was a promising start to a new Nets era. We’ll never know what could have been because we never got to see a fully available Nets team in the playoffs.

Should Durant be blamed for Brooklyn’s failure? Probably not. Perhaps if he were a better leader, he could have taken control of the locker room and gotten everyone on the same page, but that feels especially harsh given Harden and Irving were some of the biggest divas in the Association at the time.

Phoenix Suns (2023-2025)

Durant joined the Suns and created another “big three” with Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. Durant’s time in Phoenix was similar to his time in Brooklyn, plagued by injuries. During the 2023/24 season, the three only played 41 games together and were swept in the first round by the Minnesota Timberwolves. The team failed to make the playoffs during the 2024/25 season and finished with just 36 wins.

Things probably should have turned out a lot better in Phoenix. Yes, injuries occurred, but Phoenix was coming off a 2021 NBA Finals appearance in which they were just two wins away from lifting the trophy.

Can Durant be blamed for the Suns’ regression? I don’t think you can blame Durant himself, but he did cost Phoenix a lot to get him. Most of the blame should probably be put on Matt Ishbia for some of his poor choices in the trade market.

On the surface, it appears that Durant has joined teams that were set up to win. It probably feels like Durant should shoulder more of the blame because each situation he entered has blown up in his face. In the end though, circumstances prevented Durant from winning deep into May and June more than anything else.

Durant’s Individual Stats

If we say Durant shouldn’t be blamed for his team situations, maybe there is some glaring weakness in his individual game that points to him not impacting winning at an elite level.

First, let’s look at Durant’s top-line stats and awards. In the regular season, he has averaged 27.2 points per game throughout his career. He is an efficient scorer, too. He has an eFG% of .554, 2P% of .543, 3P% of .390, and TS% of .620.

In the playoffs, he scores more while being slightly less efficient. He averages 29.3 points per game, an eFG% of .529, 2P% of .527, 3P% of .356, and TS% of .599.

In total, he has scored 30,571 points, good for eighth all-time. He has also been named the MVP once, been the top five in MVP voting six times, been an All-Star 15 times, been a six-time First Team All-NBA player, and been a five-time Second Team All-NBA player.

It’s fair to say Durant has almost all the accolades one could want. So what do his advanced stats reveal?

Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) predicts a player’s contribution to the team in points per 100 possessions. Durant has been in the top five in the league four times throughout his career (2010, 2012, 2013, 2014).

Over the last 20 years, LeBron James (13), Chris Paul (12), Steph Curry (10), Kawhi Leonard (7), Giannis Antetokounmpo (6), Dirk Nowitzki (5), Joel Embiid (5), Nikola Jokic (6), Dwight Howard (4), and James Harden (4) have equaled or exceeded Durant’s top five EPM finishes. Based on Durant’s cumulation of awards, I would have thought he would be higher on the list here, but I don’t think this diminishes Durant’s status. It’s just one statistic.

Subscribe now

Win Shares (WS) estimate the number of wins a player contributes to. Durant’s WS per 48 minutes (WS/48) is .2042, which is good for 24th all-time. For context, Karl Malone sits just ahead of Durant, and Larry Bird sits just below him. I’d say that’s pretty good company.

Ok, let’s go to Box Plus-Minus (BPM), which uses box score data and the team’s overall performance to estimate a player’s contribution in points above the league average per 100 possessions. In this statistic, Durant sits 13th all-time with 6.42. Steph Curry is right above him, and James Harden is right below him. Again, great company.

But does Durant make his teammates better?

According to BBall Index, Durant had the 10th highest overall gravity in the NBA last season, which indicates that just being on the floor can help his teammates get better looks.

However, his assist percentage (AST%), which estimates the percentage of teammate field goals a player assists while on the floor, is 20.6 for his career, pretty average for a wing player like Durant. Ben Taylor of Thinking Basketball has been pretty critical of Durant’s passing ability and poor court awareness.

Where Durant also falls short for such an elite player is on the defensive side of the ball. While a decent defender at the rim, he has struggled on the perimeter, especially since his Achilles injury. Last season, he averaged only 1.5 deflections per 36 minutes, which ranks 186th of 207 forwards who played at least 300 minutes.

When not surrounded by good team defenders, his abilities on the defensive side of the ball become more exposed. Durant’s defensive BPM (DBPM) is only good for 185th all-time, right alongside David West and Christian Laettner.

While not a great playmaker or defender, perhaps Durant’s greatest weakness as a player is his health. He has played 70+ games in only nine of his 18 seasons in the NBA. His availability has definitely become a challenge since his Achilles injury.

Winning Time?

So there it is. We finally found a few flaws in Durant’s game. But does that make him not a winning player?

My instinct about him has been correct in the fact that he is always going to get his. However, he doesn’t necessarily make his teammates better, which can be the difference between a role player hitting a big shot (cough, Robert Horry) or not. He obviously knows he’s supposed to make his teammates better (see his interview in the YouTube video above), but he hasn’t consistently shown the ability to deliver in that category throughout his career.

Still, when the ball is in his hands and he’s ready to create for himself, he is among the best to ever play.

After investigating Durant’s team situations and observing his elite-level stats, it’s hard to say he doesn’t contribute to winning. Maybe he just doesn’t contribute to winning at as high a level as we think he should given his elite ability to score the ball.

As I have previously written, the NBA is more talented than ever. Maybe the era of superstars dominating and winning multiple championships isn’t as realistic anymore, especially for Durant as he ages.

Another possible reason I have this perception of Durant is that he has played for multiple teams without producing championships, barring Golden State. It feels as if we see the same story playing out everywhere he goes.

Moses Malone was a journeyman while playing in the ABA and NBA. Despite his three MVPs and countless accolades, he is probably still underrated in the all-time conversation.

If Durant stayed with the Thunder, I imagine my opinion and the conversation would be different, even if he never won a championship there. As USA TODAY shared, Durant’s journeyman career is kinda sad, and it hasn’t helped the perception of him as an all-time great.

The one consolation about watching Durant’s career is that the dude loves to hoop. It’s all he’s really wanted to do. You at least know he’ll give his all until the end, no matter what may hold him back from winning on his own. Maybe the truth is that Durant’s story isn’t about failure or fulfillment, but about a man still in love with the game. Maybe I can finally stop asking these silly questions that don’t really matter and just enjoy watching the last bit of basketball he has left in him.

Every fan loves to relive unforgettable sports moments. I am honoring that nostalgia with a Butterflies series called “Replays.” Each edition will revisit a special sports memory, add context, and share commentary and reactions surrounding it.

Context

The 2016 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship game will go down as one of the best ever. North Carolina entered the game as a #1 seed and two-point favorites over the #2 seed Villanova Wildcats. The game featured 10 future NBA players, with Josh Hart (Villanova) and Brice Johnson (North Carolina) leading their respective teams.

With just over five minutes remaining, Villanova had a 10-point lead, but North Carolina came roaring back.

Marcus Paige of North Carolina hit a wild off-balanced three-pointer to tie the game with 4.7 seconds remaining. No one really remembers this shot. I certainly didn’t. However, it was a great shot that could have been iconic had the outcome been different.

Villanova had the ball under their own basket with one last possession before overtime. This set the stage for the dramatic moment.

The Moment

Reactions

Student reactions watching at Villanova University (fair warning, turn the volume down)

Oral histories

Multiple oral histories have been written describing the final moments of this game. This one is my favorite. Maybe my favorite quote from the whole piece was Villanova’s guard, Ryan Arcidiacono, who had the assist and talked about the preparation that went into the final play:

“It was something we’d practiced every single day for like the last four years. We all knew I was gonna have the ball in my hands to make the decision of what was going to happen.”

My second favorite quote was from Kris Jenkins, who knew exactly how North Carolina was going to defend the play:

“I told Arch when we broke the huddle that I had a chance to be open, because they’re not going to put anyone on the ball when I take it out.”

Comment section: The perfect setup (thank you, Grant Hill)

Comment section: IYKYK (Explanation, Original video)

Comment section: Technically six future NBA players, but who’s counting

Comment section: A story for the ages

Comment section: On the reaction from the Villanova students

Comment section: Pete Carroll is still catching strays…

One Shining Moment

You can’t show one of the best college basketball moments ever without acknowledging the One Shining Moment that followed.

Much has been said about this summer's transfer window and how the spending has hit another level. It seemed like typed out his famous, "Here we go!" on social media every hour. It certainly was the case over the last two days before the window closed. So much was happening that it was difficult to keep up. The thing that stuck out this summer was how all the big signings seemed to be going to the Premier League.

• Alexander Isak - Liverpool, €145m

• Florian Wirtz - Liverpool, €125m

• Hugo Ekitiké - Liverpool, €95m

• Benjamin šeško - Man Utd, €76.5m

• Nick Woltemade - Newcastle, €75m

• Bryan Mbeumo - Man Utd, €75m

• Matheus Cunha - Man Utd, €74.2m

• Martin Zubimendi - Arsenal, €70m

• Eberechi Eze - Arsenal, €69.3m

• Viktor Gyökeres - Arsenal, €65.8m

• Xavi Simons - Tottenham, €65m

• Mohammed Kudus - Tottenham, €63.8m

• João Pedro - Chelsea, €63.7m

These names account for 13 of the top 16 signings by transfer fees this summer. It's almost as if other European leagues have become feeder leagues for the Premier League. With this seismic shift happening, the time has come to revisit the idea of a European Super League.

Let me explain.

While it would be exciting to see Real Madrid vs Chelsea on a random weekend in late August, we still essentially get that in the current iteration of the Champions League—it just starts a month later.

Instead, we are witnessing a European Super League being consolidated within the Premier League. This is due to the Premier League's significant spending power compared to other top European leagues. Just check out this crazy tidbit from :

According to Transfermarkt, nine of the top 10 club spenders in the world came from the Premier League this summer. If you expand this to the top 25 spenders, 14 came from the Premier League. This isn't just a one-off summer spending spree for Premier League teams either.

If you zoom out and look from the 2019/20 season through present day, the Premier League holds eight of the top 10 spending spots and 12 of the top 25.

This spending power shift towards the Premier League hasn't always existed. Examining spending between the 2014/15 and 2018/19 seasons, only four of the top 10 spenders were from the Premier League. Among the top 25, 10 resided in England.

Looking back even further from 2000/01 to 2013/14, approximately half (5) of the top 10 spenders and eight of the top 25 were from the Premier League.

Over the past 25 years, spending was much more balanced across the top five European leagues. But today, the Premier League dominates.

As long as spending power continues to be concentrated in the Premier League, more Premier League teams will be superior on the field.

Consider last year's Europa League Final, the second-best European tournament trophy. Tottenham defeated Manchester United, two teams that finished 15th and 17th in the Premier League table. Despite winning the tournament, Tottenham finished with 38 points and was just one spot away from being relegated.

Subscribe now

Now, could teams like Crystal Palace or Bournemouth compete for a Serie A title? Eh, probably not right now. However, the trend appears to be going in that direction. It might be difficult to imagine a mid-table team in England competing for a title in Italy, Germany, France, or Spain, but consider the data.

Examining the differences in player payrolls across the top five leagues reveals stark disparities. The median payroll for a Premier League team is €30 million more than the next closest league (Serie A). In fact, all Premier League clubs outside of the three recently promoted (Leeds, Burnley, Sunderland) are among the top 41 club payrolls across the top five European Leagues.

Remarkably, when comparing median payrolls, Ligue 1 has smaller salaries than England's second-tier league, the EFL Championship.

One reason for the higher pay is that owners in England are richer than those in other countries. A brief Google Search reveals that the Premier League dominates the list of richest owners. As long as owners are wealthier, players will be paid more, and talent will migrate to where the money resides. Players want to maximize their earnings, compete at the highest level, and prove that they belong among the best. Right now, the Premier League increasingly attracts top talent.

The bigger question becomes how teams outside of England stay competitive. Outside of the Premier League, there are really only 10-13 clubs that are considered big in terms of spending and payroll. Outside of those select clubs, we'll continue to see a widening on the field.

Now, all of this can change if new investors or owners swoop in and buy smaller clubs. However, I expect new investors would prefer to put their money into a Premier League club. Let's face it, the Premier League has everything going for it to continue growing as a capitalist powerhouse.

It is the most-watched soccer league in the world, broadcast in over 200 countries. It’s the default international product, whereas other top leagues (La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1) are far more regional in appeal.

The fact that the Premier League is English-centric helps with its appeal in the world's most wealthy market, the United States. Commentary, interviews, analysis, and internet blogs are all produced in English, making them easy for Americans to understand and follow.

Importantly, the Premier League is accessible in the U.S. market. Over 50 million Americans now watch international soccer leagues, and 72% of those 50 million tune in to the Premier League.

The Premier League has the biggest TV rights deals domestically and internationally compared to the other top European leagues. American viewership through the Premier League's deal with NBC and Peacock continues to grow each year. In terms of all revenue generated, Premier League clubs earn about 60% more than Bundesliga clubs and more than three times more than Serie A and La Liga clubs.

Everyone knows the financial challenges of operating a European club nowadays, but English clubs have a built-in advantage by playing in the Premier League.

For domestic leagues in Europe, financial dominance has shifted toward England. The European soccer landscape doesn't look the same as it did 10 years ago, and I bet it will continue to lean more heavily toward England 10 years from now. For years, soccer's financial powers have been spread across Europe (with more money flowing through Italy in the 80s and 90s). Now, the concentration of wealth and talent in the Premier League has never been greater.

Is this good for the global game? That's open to debate. Does it water down the rest of European soccer? Probably. Is the Premier League more exciting week in and week out? Absolutely.

Every fan loves to relive unforgettable sports moments. I am honoring that nostalgia with a Butterflies series called "Replays." Each edition will revisit a special sports memory, add context, and share commentary and reactions surrounding it.

Context

The 2013 iteration of the Iron Bowl was the most-watched game during the 2013/14 college football season. Alabama, the #1 ranked team in the nation, had won two straight BCS National Championships and was just two games away from playing for its third in a row. Auburn started the season unranked, but through several close wins, entered the game undefeated and ranked #4. The winner would play for the SEC Championship and have a chance to play for a National Championship.

Auburn had trailed, but rallied to tie the game with just over 30 seconds remaining. Alabama quickly marched down the field and had one second left on the clock to try and win it. Madness then ensued.

The Moment

The Auburn Radio Call

The CBS Broadcast

Reactions

Awards

At the 2014 ESPY Awards, it was named the best play and the best game of the year in all of North American sports. Some have said it's the greatest single moment in college football history.

The Auburn band

Fan reactions

Comment Section: For the Love of the Game

Comment Section: It's About Family

Comment Section: Pete Carroll Catches a Stray

Let me know what you think about this series and if you’d like to see more posts like this.

The new Premier League season started this past weekend, and Anfield hosted the first match. The Liverpool faithful gave an emotional tribute of "You'll Never Walk Alone" for Diogo Jota, turning Anfield into more of a cathedral than a stadium.

Anfield is known as one of the most iconic and intimidating stadiums in world football, famous for its electric atmosphere and the passion of Liverpool’s supporters. The stadium’s heart is the Kop, a massive single-tier stand where thousands of fans sing in unison, creating a wall of sound that can lift the team and unsettle opponents. Legendary European nights at Anfield, such as the famous 4-0 victory over Barcelona, or the Round of 16 match against Bayern Munich when the crowd drowned out the Champions League anthem, make for a coveted bucket list visit.

Qualitatively, there isn't a more difficult stadium to win at for an opposing team in all of Europe. Many current and former players and managers have made similar statements.

Watching Anfield go berserk after two goals at the death of the season-opening victory made me think about how much the stadium and its frenzied fans impact winning. I looked at the 2024/25 Premier League season and gathered the results of each game, home team, and goals scored for each team to create a home advantage model.

The Effect of Playing at Home After Controlling for Team Strength

The home goal differential values in the table below are directly interpreted as the goal differential (home goals minus away goals) a team is expected to achieve when playing at home compared to a neutral field, after controlling for team strength and opponent quality. These values are expressed in goals and represent the isolated effect of the home venue on a match outcome.

As you can see, Liverpool sits in the middle of the pack, which was surprising to me. Still, this score can be interpreted as a modest boost for Liverpool when playing at Anfield.

Aston Villa and Newcastle had a large one-goal bump while playing at home. What may be a 1-0 win on a neutral site might be a 2-0 or 3-1 win at Villa Park or St James' Park.

The Impact of Team + Venue

However, this analysis leaves out the strength of a team. We know that games aren't played in a vacuum of perfect conditions. Ask any player if it's more difficult to play at Villa Park or Anfield, and I bet 10 out of 10 times the answer is Anfield.

For Liverpool, Anfield is just one piece of the puzzle in creating a challenging venue to visit. What creates the perfect condition is the fact that the team is so good. If we consider the strength of the team plus Anfield, the numbers tell a different story, making playing Liverpool at Anfield a near-impossible task for visiting teams.

Analysis of match data without controlling for team strength shows Liverpool's dominance, evident in their overall average goal differential of +1.184 goals across all matches.

Liverpool’s average goal differential at Anfield was +1.368 goals per match, the highest in the Premier League in the 2024/25 season. This reflects their elite team strength and the stadium’s unique boost.

When comparing Liverpool's home performance (+1.368) to their away performance (+1.000), we see a +0.368 goal differential at Anfield. This stadium-specific advantage, above the league average of +0.181, underscores once again the tangible impact of Anfield.

No matter where Liverpool plays, they are going to be difficult to snag a point from, let alone defeat. For opponents, the combination of Liverpool’s world-class talent and Anfield’s intimidating environment creates a near-impossible venue to capture points. That is what makes Anfield such a storied place to visit. However, the devastating combination of team and venue has to be consistent over many years for a ground to receive the lore status of Anfield.

Subscribe now

The History of Anfield

The mystique of Anfield dates back to its opening way back in 1884. It was originally the home of Everton. Can you imagine if that was still the case today? At the time, it was less of a stadium and more of a field with bleachers around it. Everton had success with Anfield as its home venue and won a league championship in 1891.

However, in 1892, disputes between the ground owner and Everton led to the team's move to Goodison Park. Everton's former president and the one paying for Anfield, John Houlding, was now without a team. That's when he decided to create his own club, which would become the world-famous Liverpool.

Liverpool quickly worked its way up through the lower divisions in England and won its first of 20 top-flight titles in 1901. As Liverpool kept winning, the seating capacity continued expanding. The famous Kop was built in 1906 and held up to 20,000 fans at the time.

Liverpool won a couple more league titles in the early 1900s, but slipped into mediocrity in the early 1950s, eventually being relegated in 1954, spending eight years in the second division. The turning point came in 1959 with the appointment of Bill Shankly as manager. Shankly rebuilt the club from top to bottom.

His success laid the foundation for decades of dominance. Liverpool returned to top-flight football in 1962, won the league title in 1964, and secured their first FA Cup in 1965. Around this time, “You’ll Never Walk Alone,” became the club’s anthem after fans began singing it at Anfield, forever linking it to Liverpool’s identity.

Liverpool’s golden era truly arrived in the 1970s and 1980s, under Shankly’s successors Bob Paisley and Joe Fagan. Paisley guided The Reds to six league titles and three European Cups (1977, 1978, 1981), making Liverpool a dominant force in English and European football.

Throughout the years, Anfield has continued to expand. More recently, expansion and development has pushed capacity to over 61,000 seats where spectators can watch some of the best football in the world.

A world-class team. A rabid fanbase. A large stadium. A winning tradition. All of this creates the perfect storm. It turns a stadium into a living, breathing force in which opposing teams wilt.

That is why Anfield has become one of football’s great venues. It is a place where history, passion, and excellence converge. Where “You’ll Never Walk Alone” rings out as both an anthem and a warning. Where visiting teams know that the margin for error is razor-thin. In the end, Anfield is a symbolic weapon as powerful as Mo Salah's strike of the ball.

A little over 10 years ago, I spent a couple of months in Ghana during the summer. Outside of the hostel where I stayed lived a few teenage boys. They lived and slept on the floor of a little shed.

We became friends with them. Our most common interest was football/soccer. They invited me and a few others to one of their games, where we watched them play on a dirt field. Their dream, like thousands of other kids, was to play at the top levels. At the time, I wondered, "How do any scouts find these young players?"

Somehow, scouts do find them, on a random dirt field in the middle of Accra, Ghana. Football is the most global game in the world. Look at any roster, and you will find players from every corner of the earth. And it's made possible because of the intricate web of global scouting networks.

Clubs have extensive networks worldwide and in key geographical regions. Oftentimes, it's trusted locals, youth coaches, and former players scattered throughout cities and villages who will first notify a scout or club about a talent. When scouts get a call, they will travel on bumpy roads to see a prospect play.

Some of the top clubs have feeder academies or partner with local clubs and training centers in places such as West Africa, Brazil, and Eastern Europe. The clubs will snatch up the best players as they emerge from their local clubs. An example of this is the Right to Dream Academy in Ghana, which has direct ties to Nordsjælland in Denmark. It's a great gig for the youth players, knowing that there is a direct path to Europe if they succeed. Such was the case for Mohammed Kudus.

Scouts are often prowling the sidelines of youth tournaments. It's not unheard of for a scout to show up to a game that happens sporadically in the streets. Scouts will touch down in a country and sometimes not leave for months, jumping from game to game. More frequently, scouts are turning to cell phone video footage sent to them via WhatsApp. It is often a video that sparks a scout's initial interest.

For players, it can be a matter of being seen at the right time. Sadio Mané is a classic example, after being spotted in Senegal at the age of 15. He joined a well-known club in Dakar, the capital of Senegal. After succeeding there, he was signed to a French team, where he impressed in Ligue 2. He then joined Red Bull Salzburg in Austria before finally making his way to the Premier League.

Red Bull the Football Club

Mané's stint with Red Bull Salzburg is no coincidence. What is known as an energy drink by most is building a football empire. Many have probably seen the Red Bull logo on different football team jerseys. However, it isn't just a sponsor for a couple of random football clubs. Red Bull is a football club. Plural.

SSV Makranstädt was a fledgling club in Germany bouncing around the lower divisions. In 2009, Red Bull decided to purchase licensing rights to Makranstädt, which eventually led to it owning most of the club's voting rights through a few German footballing rules being bent.

One of those rules is that teams can't be named after their sponsors, but Red Bull decided to change the name of the team to "Rasenballsport Leipzig." Rasenballsport literally means "lawn ball sports," which seems rather embarrassing for a professional sports team. However, Red Bull didn't care because the team name could then be abbreviated to RB Leipzig. The new abbreviated name, coupled with a big Red Bull logo on the front of the jersey, meant everyone now associated Red Bull with the team.

Meanwhile, Leipzig started winning. Within six years, the team went from the German fifth division to the first division and finished second in its first season in the top flight. While RB Leipzig is Red Bull's most successful (at least on football's biggest stage) and best team, it wasn't the first club it bought.

Red Bull acquired SV Austria Salzburg in 2005 and renamed the team Red Bull Salzburg. In fact, it has majority ownership in six football teams spanning Europe, North and South America, and Asia. Additionally, Red Bull has a minority stake in two other clubs.

In 2023, ESPN reported UEFA research showing that over 180 clubs worldwide were part of a multi-club structure, up from 40 in 2012. Red Bull isn't alone in its entrance into the world's most popular sport. The Saudis are very active in purchasing top clubs around the world. Even celebrities have gotten into the mix—look at Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds' purchase of Wrexham in 2021 and their recent purchase of a minority stake in the Mexican side, Club Necaxa.

For Red Bull, it comes down to three key variables that have driven success on the field. Spoiler, it all happens before the games are played.

1. Tactics & Style: Red Bull recruits and trains its players to play a certain brand of football

2. Unified Global Scouting: Red Bull has arguably the best network of scouts around the globe, all working together for the Red Bull brand

3. Player Movement: Players in the system will work their way up to the best Red Bull teams as they improve

Tactics & Style

One thing Red Bull has done is create a distinct style of play. They play with energy and have adopted high-pressing football. Red Bull's clubs train and scout for this type of player.

Red Bull scouts look for players who have an instinct for when to pressure and when to sit back in compact zonal structures. Scouting for players who can play at a high pace with the ability to transition quickly helps to predict those who can meet the demands of top-flight football.

The Football Analyst has a great graphic that identifies key tactics and skills Red Bull looks for in players of different positions.

Unified Global Scouting

Red Bull scouts are relentless in their pursuit of talent, often identifying players 12-24 months before any other major clubs take notice. If a player looks promising based on the eye test and analytic measurements, they may be invited for a trial with one of their many teams around the world.

Red Bull isn't afraid to take calculated risks. It will sign players who may be raw or undeveloped, but show signs of elite talent, believing they can be molded once in the Red Bull system.

One of the reasons Red Bull has so much success is that all its clubs are interconnected. They act as one large club, sharing information about players and creating a large network of connected data from around the world.

Subscribe now

Additionally, Red Bull intentionally scouts in places where there is less competition among other top clubs. Regions such as Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, South America, West Africa, and the USA/Canada are places where they have strong networks and ties to have their pick of the litter. With Red Bull clubs spread across continents, it also makes it easier to plug a player into its system without navigating too much legal red tape.

Player Movement

Red Bull is also disciplined in the way it operates the clubs. They focus on player development in the academy systems and refrain from big-money signings, unlike other governments and billionaires that have bought into the footballing world. Red Bull's business formula is simple. Grow and buy young players who fit the Red Bull mold. Develop them into stars. Sell them off to bigger clubs for a profit. All while trying to compete and be relevant at the highest levels.

Take Naby Keïta, for example. According to Transfermarkt, Red Bull only invested around €1.5 million in him, yet sold him to Liverpool for a fee of €60 million after just four years in the Red Bull System.

Before selling to bigger clubs, Red Bull players within the system are moved from club to club as they improve. Players will often start at FC Liefering, then graduate to play for Red Bull Salzburg, before finally going to Germany to play for RB Leipzig.

Red Bull treats its lower-tier clubs as a farm system similar to the minor leagues in baseball. These transitions are done smoothly because there isn't much negotiating necessary when it comes to transfer fees, etc. Sure, there are questions around fairness in the footballing world, but from a player's perspective, it is great that this system is in place to help them fulfil their dreams of playing in the best European leagues.

This type of player movement allows Red Bull clubs to compete without skipping a beat. Its clubs always have someone else ready to step up once a player is sold to a bigger club. When Keïta moved to Liverpool, Konrad Laimer and Amadou Haidara stepped up. When Dayot Upamecano was sold to Bayern Munich, Mohamed Simakan and Josko Gvardiol were ready to replace him.

While Red Bull's European clubs are firing on all cylinders, they acknowledge they haven't had as much success moving players from New York Red Bulls and Red Bull Bragantino to Europe.

Oliver Mintzlaff, the CEO of Corporate Projects and Investments at Red Bull, has shared his frustrations, saying, "MLS is developing, but it's developing far too slowly and is still far away from the standard we would imagine for a country like the USA."

In fact, only one player in the Red Bull system has made the continental jump, and that is US international, Tyler Adams. If Red Bull can get its North and South America pipeline of talent revving—look out. They will then have a truly worldwide tidal wave of talent working for their network of clubs.

The New Business of Football

Red Bull’s approach to football may feel unconventional to traditionalists. After all, this is a company that made its name selling energy drinks, not lifting trophies. But their global scouting network, unified playing style, and coordinated efforts across clubs show that they’re not just in the game to slap a logo on a jersey. They’re here to win.

At the same time, whether you're a kid on a dirt pitch in Ghana, a raw talent in Brazil, or a promising midfielder in Austria, Red Bull offers a clear path to the top.

That’s what makes Red Bull's model both exciting and controversial. On one hand, it fulfills dreams and proves that talent can be spotted and nurtured from almost anywhere on earth. On the other hand, it raises questions about the ethics of the game when corporations get involved. Either way, Red Bull’s multi-club empire represents the future of football.

I was camping and out of cell service when it was announced Dame Lillard would be returning to the Portland Trail Blazers. When I finally got service, texts from a handful of friends came in sharing the news. My first reaction was happiness. A feeling that went beyond the roster fit and cap table. Like one of those times when it doesn't make sense on paper, but it just feels right in your heart.

I was about halfway through writing another post, but decided to write this instead. I had to share how I was feeling about the homecoming of a Blazers legend and ignore all the left-brained second-guessing that has filled the airwaves following the announcement.

Dame reportedly had the opportunity to join an organization that could compete for championships during the last few productive years of his post-Achilles tear, aging body. It would be business as usual—a team attempting to get every last drop out of a player whose playing days are numbered. A former superstar chasing a ring to try and prove that he belongs among the top 75 players of all time.

However, Dame chose the path not often taken. He is comfortable enough in his own skin to say he is ok with the possibility of not winning a ring to be considered among the elite players and point guards who have ever played.

He chose home. He chose family. He chose his heart. He chose his fans. He chose forgiveness.

I mean, just look at this video of him entering the locker room again for the first time. He couldn't be happier.

As a fan of the NBA, Blazers, and Dame, this is a good story we can all get behind. Dame and the Blazers are a story that would feel incomplete if he didn't return. We should celebrate this move. It should be something we encourage more of. Instead of jumping from team to team chasing rings and legacy, why not create your own legacy right where you are supposed to be?

Dame and the front office had to repair hurt feelings and a difference of opinion to get this deal done. It's a lesson in fighting for the things we love and care about most, rather than running when things get tough. We should follow our hearts, forgive, and move forward together. Life is too short to chase what others want us to pursue instead of going after what truly matters to us.

Embrace your 'Dame back to Portland' moment in your own life. Don't hold grudges. Don't make your life miserable. It's in your hands. Make it happen.

At least the script should read something like that.

However, before we write off the signing of Dame as only a feel-good story, we must remember that Dame can still do things on the basketball court that most others in the Association can't. He's still a top 15-20 player, statistically. He's still one of the best offensive weapons when he gets going. His leadership is among the league's elite. He can score the ball and get to the free throw line with the best of them.

I can almost bet that Dame thinks that if the stars align, there is a chance the Blazers win it all. Afterall, he did say in his introductory press conference that this was a "basketball move."

Deep down in their hearts, I don't really think the Blazers front office feels the same way Dame feels. I think they are hoping for it to work out on the court. They have a very good young core, but they need one of those young pieces to pop and develop into a star to have a chance. And that pop needs to happen ASAP. If a pop doesn't happen, the Blazers likely won't compete for a championship when Dame is on the roster, at least while playing meaningful minutes.

Subscribe now

Dame almost certainly won't be able to fill that void once he returns. In all honesty, his best chance at a championship with the Blazers is if the guy drafted to replace him, Scoot Henderson, is good enough to beat Dame out for the starting spot. It feels like a long shot at this point.

The front office probably looks at Dame as a player who can come in and mentor the young guys. A player who can put butts in seats and win back a fanbase who has been searching in the wilderness for something to cheer for ever since Dame left. A player that a new owner can point to and justify the price they will have to pay for the franchise.

When it comes to roster building, this move doesn't really make a ton of sense. The Blazers just traded for Jrue Holiday, another aging star who has shown signs that Father Time isn't far away. Dame and Jrue make up about 30% of the Blazers cap, which isn't great when both are north of 35 years old.

The hope is probably to recreate what the Houston Rockets did this year. However, two salaries of Jrue and Dame make building a young, competitive roster more complicated in the coming years, especially with key extensions on the horizon and Dame's no-trade clause looming over the team. The Rockets had flexibility and tradable assets this summer to make win-now moves. I'm not sure the Blazers have the same cards up their sleeves.

How the Blazers balance Dame and Jrue with Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot will be an interesting experiment. Dame and Jrue will surely attempt to turn back the clock to their backcourt partnership on Team USA that won gold in the 2020 (played in 2021) Olympics, but playing the young guys big minutes will be what could eventually get the Blazers over the edge.

I don't even want to think about all that logical stuff though. I want to focus on how my heart feels about the signing. Something about full-circle moments in life are beautiful, and this is exactly that for Dame, the Blazers, and the fans. The Blazers are my favorite sports team. Dame is my favorite athlete. I'm going to enjoy this one, even if it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. I sure hope Dame and the Blazers prove me wrong.