You know that feeling when sports writing just hits different? Every so often, I round up the best content I’ve consumed. “Seven Wonders” is a Butterflies series where I share my favorites.

Happy March Madness! Though we have a lack of upsets, we have at least had competitive games played at very high levels. Tight finishes remind us we don’t need a Cinderella run to tune in. If you’re looking at your bracket in tears, here are seven pieces of sports writing that will take your mind off your poor judgment.

But first, some of my recent posts and a few relevant oldies from the archive:

North London Forever. Arsenal lost in the Carabao Cup final, but they still have a shot at the treble. More importantly, they are in a commanding lead in the Premier League and have a favorable path to go deep in the Champions League.

I Think We Can Fix College Basketball. This is from last year, but it is still relevant today. I break down a few small changes that can make the college basketball product more enjoyable to watch.

The 100-Point Game. It seems like many weren’t impressed with Bam Adebayo’s 83-point game a few weeks ago. This piece breaks down how Wilt Chamberlain scored his 100 back in the day. Spoiler alert: it was probably more gimmicky than Bam’s 83.

Victor Wembanyama: The dominance of international players in the NBA. I reflect on the rise and dominance of the international player in the NBA. Though this is older, it’s a fun read, given Victor Wembanyama is closing in on being one of the best players in the world.

The Fouling While Up Three Problem. I break down what the statistics say about fouling while up three. Plus, I share my thoughts on the excitement (lol) of watching the best athletes in the world line up at the free-throw line.

Soccer In Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. You don’t know pressure until you have played for Iraq during Saddam Hussein’s reign.

The Evolution of Unethical Hoops. A video breakdown of how players have adapted over the years to draw fouls, deceive referees, and optimize their game in the era of analytics.

And now, here are the seven (ok, I cheated) nine best things I’ve read in sports recently:

Cinderella Isn’t Dead Yet, But She’s On Life Support by . A case that the transfer portal, not NIL, is the real villain killing mid-major Cinderella runs, and what it would take to save the best underdog tradition in American sports.

Sweet 16 Possibilities by . KenPom breaks down the Sweet 16 and makes a compelling case that the upset dam is about to break, whether you want it to or not.

March Madness (Live from Somewhere Else) by . A look at what we’re giving up when March Madness trades packed campus gyms for massive neutral-site arenas.

MAGIC MOMENTS by . A love letter to the magic of football’s most improbable moments told through a 16-year-old named Max Dowman.

Fly Midway by . A raw breakdown of Arsenal’s Carabao Cup final collapse against Manchester City.

As Big as Chile by . The beautiful story of a tiny Serbian village football club that accidentally went viral in Chile and what it meant to a dying community.

VAR’s Crisis of Coherence by . An argument for why VAR making soccer more accurate has somehow made it less enjoyable, and what we’ve quietly lost by obligating the game to be correct.

The Colonial Logic of Brazilian Football by & . Brazil’s football decline isn’t a talent problem; it’s a structural one. Its best players are shipped abroad, leaving the domestic game hollow.

Game Management by @ . A data-driven breakdown of how NBA teams deploy timeouts, challenges, and fouls.

As of today, Arsenal sit seven points clear at the top of the Premier League with eight games remaining. They have a Carabao Cup final at Wembley in a few weeks. They’re through to the FA Cup quarterfinals. To top it off, they just completed a flawless eight wins in eight matches in the Champions League league phase, beating Bayern Munich, Atlético Madrid, and Inter Milan along the way. Plus, they have a clear path to the semifinals after a favorable draw.

The quadruple is within reach. You have to knock on wood after saying it, but it’s time to whisper it out loud.

No English club has ever done it. However, there is still a real possibility that the season ends with zero trophies. There is still everything to play for.

The Invincibles

In May 2004, Facebook was called thefacebook.com and was a small website only available to students at Harvard. The Boston Red Sox were still in the midst of their 86-year World Series drought. Everyone wanted a Motorola Razr, and American Idol was a TV hit.

Thierry Henry was sprinting around Highbury, turning fullbacks into statues. Patrick Vieira was patrolling the midfield like a nightclub bouncer. And Arsène Wenger was pacing the touchline in his puffer jacket and red tie.

Arsenal went the entire Premier League season unbeaten. They were nicknamed the Invincibles. They were the benchmark; the gold standard. If I were to tell an Arsenal supporter back then that they would still be waiting for another title, they wouldn’t have believed me. But they’ve been waiting ever since.

I recently read a comment on social media from an Arsenal supporter who made a deal with himself that he wouldn’t wear his 2003/04 Henry shirt until they won the Prem again. He thinks this is the year he’ll finally be able to wear his Invincibles shirt once more. Hopefully, it still fits him.

The dark days

After 2004, Arsenal spent the next 22 years winning the occasional FA Cup while watching Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City, Liverpool, and even Leicester trade the league title among themselves. The Gunners moved from Highbury to the Emirates in 2006, which forced the club to enter a self-imposed financial austerity that meant they couldn’t compete in the transfer market for top talent.

During the title drought, Wenger left. Then Unai Emery came and went. Finally, there was a brief Freddie Ljungberg appearance as an interim manager before Mikel Arteta was brought in.

During Arsenal’s time from winning a title until Arteta, they were still very good. They averaged over 71 points per campaign and usually finished in the top four. However, this is Arsenal. It’s not Brighton or even Tottenham. Supporters expect trophies and Premier League titles.

Arteta’s rejuvenation

Arteta took over Arsenal as a first-time manager on Boxing Day 2019. Arsenal were 10th in the table and looked nothing like a club with serious ambitions.

He inherited a dressing room with poor culture, an aging squad, and a fanbase that had lost trust in the institution. Over the next four years, he systematically rebuilt everything. He brought in the right players and adjusted his formation and tactics to fit the personnel he had.

Arteta slowly built a team that could defend from the front, create from deep, and stay compact and disciplined defensively. Arteta’s teams are a complete reversal of the technically gifted, but easily bullied Arsenal sides of the 2010s.

The transformation Arteta has created at Arsenal doesn’t look that much different if you look at the final points tally and position in the final table. In fact, during his time, Arsenal has finished slightly worse in the table than before he arrived. However, it’s the manner in which he has been building towards this season. Progress is visible. The team continued to push and work its way up the table.

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In 2022/23, Arsenal sat eight points clear at the top of the table with nine games remaining. It really did look like the wait was finally over. Then they blew two-goal leads against Liverpool and West Ham in back-to-back games, the first time Arsenal had ever done that in the Premier League era. They also drew at home to bottom-of-the-league Southampton, and got humbled 4-1 by City at the Etihad.

In 2023/24, the Gunners pushed City all the way to the final day, finishing just two points behind despite picking up 89 points, their highest-ever Premier League total. That year, they scored 91 league goals and held the best defensive record in the Premier League. They did almost everything right, but it still wasn’t enough.

In 2024/25, injuries and a red card epidemic derailed their campaign. Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard, Riccardo Calafiori, and Gabriel Magalhães had injuries that tested Arsenal’s depth. They dropped plenty of points from winning positions and couldn’t sustain a long run throughout the entire season, finishing 10 points behind Liverpool.

Three consecutive title challenges. Three consecutive failures. The mental weight of that was and still is real. Everyone is just waiting for a late-season collapse this season. But it hasn’t come yet. Arsenal are the clear favorites to win the League. Winning isn’t a distant hope anymore. It’s actually something that is starting to feel like a reality.

This year’s Arsenal is different. For one, they have true depth. They have added players throughout the squad who have been able to step up without a drop-off. Additions such as Martín Zubimendi, Eberechi Eze, Piero Hincapié, and Viktor Gyökeres have given the Gunners much-needed options when players go down with injuries.

Arsenal’s set pieces have also become a key aspect of their game. Though they are mocked in the media, they have put away the most set pieces in the Premier League this season. A goal is a goal, no matter how it comes. This article does a great job of breaking down Arsenal’s set-piece strategy.

Arsenal’s defense continues to be one of the best in the world. William Saliba and Gabriel have become one of the best center back pairings in Europe, and Timber is arguably one of the best right backs right now. David Raya is also good for at least one big save per game.

Arsenal certainly aren’t perfect, but they know how to win. And that’s what makes them one of, if not the best, team in Europe at the moment.

On the cusp of history

The quadruple has always felt like an impossible achievement in English football. Manchester United won the Treble in 1999. City matched it in 2019. Liverpool came agonizingly close in 2021/22, winning the League Cup and FA Cup before losing the Premier League on the final day and the Champions League in the final. Arsenal are closer to it right now than any English club in history, yet zero trophies is still a dark possibility.

The big one, though, is the Premier League. Just get that, and the 22-year drought hanging over the club will be over. Just win the Premier League, and nothing else will matter.

The NBA is under fire. And that’s a good thing. When people complain, it’s a sign they care.

My last post explored how offensive player movement has been manipulated to draw fouls, partly due to the growing influence of analytics. There has been a healthy debate as to whether analytics makes the sports viewing experience better or worse. Depending on who you ask, you will get different answers.

Either way, I think most fans can agree that we watch sports to be entertained. We watch to feel something. We want to live out our past glory days. Remember the game-winner we hit in our driveway, or if we’re lucky, our high school gymnasium.

Pause for a second and think about your favorite NBA games. It may be a player’s performance over the course of 48 minutes, or it may be some outstanding athletic feat. Most likely, it’s a memory as the time is running down.

We feel something when the games are tense, there is drama to be viewed, and the clock is about to hit zero. Everyone loves a last-second buzzer-beater. It’s what gets the fans jumping up and down wildly at the bar, in a living room, or in the arena.

One analytics movement has started to slowly remove buzzer beaters from the game—fouling while up three. It feels like more and more games are now ending at the free-throw line instead of with a well-executed and defended ATO. Those nail-bitters are now turning into snoozers, and it’s bad for the NBA product.

There have been several studies on the effectiveness of fouling while up three, a few of which I will review. The results of the studies haven’t always been the same, but I’ll explain why as we go along.

Math & Probabilities

An analysis was conducted 20 years ago by a math professor named Adrian Lawhorn. He used math and probability based on NBA shooting and offensive rebounding percentages.

Lawhorn played out the two scenarios of fouling while up three or defending straight up. He concluded that fouling while up three would result in teams being 4x more likely to win vs having the game go to overtime.

Still, for 20 years, most coaches didn’t view fouling while up three as a viable option. Data wasn’t as accessible and it wasn’t something teams seriously considered.

Not Segmenting the Data by Time Remaining

There is another group of studies that analyzed fouling while up three vs defending straight up based on historical winning percentage data for each scenario.

In 2008, another professor named Wayne Winston shared that one of his students observed the data of all NBA games between 2005 and 2008 in which a team was down three with under 10 seconds left.

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The leading team played defense 260 times and won 91.9% of the games. Of the 27 times the leading team fouled, they won 88.9% of the games. The analysis concluded that no definitive strategy was better or worse than the other, a drastically different outcome than the study two years prior.

Then, in 2013, Ken Pomeroy, a college basketball analytics guru, conducted his own study at the college level. He looked at all possessions when the team trailing by three had the ball with between five and 12 seconds left at the end of the second half or overtime.

The 676 teams that decided to defend won 93.5% of the time compared to 92.5% of the 138 teams that decided to foul. Again, a similar result to the 2008 study, with playing defense appearing like the slightly better strategy.

In 2020, Pomeroy wrote another article on the subject of fouling up three, but instead of looking at the data, he identified a loophole in the rule:

“One creative solution to the end-game conundrum is to foul up three and commit lane violations on the last free throw until the shooting team makes it. If you’re a rules wonk, you know that if the defense violates the lane, it’s only penalized if the shooting team misses. This is a feature and not a bug: The shooting team gets the result that benefits it — either a point or a do-over. But in the foul-up-three situation, it is a bug. The fouled team wants to miss, but it isn’t allowed to do so as long as there are violations.”

Intentionally committing lane violations hasn’t ever been a strategy I’ve seen used. However, if it does become a problem, changing the rule to call a technical foul for intentionally gaming the rules would quickly fix the loophole.

Lastly, additional analysis was conducted on NBA data in 2024. Researchers looked at games when a team was leading by three with 24 or fewer seconds remaining. Teams that elected to play defense won the game 93% of the time. Teams that fouled won 92% of the time.

It is clear that there isn’t much difference between fouling and playing defense when the data isn’t segmented by time remaining. Still, all three studies suggest playing defense might have a better winning percentage.

As you will see, though, analyzing the data using a different methodology yields a different result.

Evaluating Probabilities Based on Remaining Time

Another group of studies considers the exact time remaining in the game when deciding whether fouling or defending is the better strategy.

In 2018, Patrick McFarlane, an analyst of the Philadelphia Phillies, looked at NBA games and found that with about 36 seconds remaining, playing defense gives the team up three a 3.5% better chance of winning than fouling would.

However, at around nine seconds, intentionally fouling becomes the optimal strategy. With one second remaining, fouling gives the team up three a 9.2% better chance compared to defending regularly.

Obviously, fouling with only one second remaining can be trickier said than done because you are more likely to foul a shooter. However, the principle remains the same—stick with traditional defense until around nine seconds remain in the game.

A similar analysis was conducted in 2022 with college basketball data. The study observed three-point games with 16 seconds or fewer remaining when the losing team had the ball. It sorted the data based on teams that chose to defend and allow a three-point attempt vs teams that fouled, leading to foul shots. Similar to McFarlane’s analysis, it cut the data based on the time remaining in the game.

For games between 0-12 seconds, fouling while up three doubled the chances of winning in regulation vs having the game go to overtime. Fouling between 12-16 seconds remaining actually flipped the script, with a higher percentage of games going to overtime.

The Optimal Strategy

Each of these studies has slightly different timeframes and datapoints. But as you can see, cutting the data by time remaining in the game sheds new light on the fouling while up three vs defending strategy.

It is reasonable to believe that a well-trained analytics department can analyze the data and instruct a coaching staff when to foul vs not, depending on how much time is left on the clock. Based on the mounting evidence, determining a team’s strategy based on the time remaining seems to be the correct decision.

It’s only a matter of time before we see almost every team perfect the fouling while up three strategy. With the mountains of data now available to the public and as coaches come under more scrutiny for their decisions (or lack thereof), coaches will almost always do what the probabilities suggest.

The Best Outcome for Fans

Still, as mentioned at the beginning of this post, I wondered out loud if this strategy is good for basketball. Nail-biters are turning into snoozers as the final minute of the 4th quarter is turning into 20-minute ordeals.

So, what are we to do?

The NBA changed rules after the Hack-a-Shaq trend in the early 2000s, penalizing teams for intentionally fouling a player off the ball in the final two minutes. Doing so would result in one free throw and the ball back for the offensive team.

The NBA clearly wants the game to be more entertaining. Just look at how defenses are hamstrung nowadays.

There are possible avenues to make a rule change to eliminate fouling while up three. It’s just not as straightforward as the Hack-a-Shaq rule change.

The NBA might learn a thing or two by observing FIBA, which has what they call an unsportsmanlike foul. Its rulebook states:

“An unsportsmanlike foul is a player contact which, in the judgment of a referee, is contact with an opponent and not legitimately attempting to directly play the ball within the spirit and intent of the rules.”

The NBA could implement something similar, which would result in free throw(s) and the ball. It would incentivize more aggressive defense, which I view as a positive. But should this rule be applied to both teams or just the team winning at the end of the game? Or should it be applied throughout the whole game?

The challenge is that it becomes more of a judgment call for referees. Introducing more judgment will lead to mistakes. It could also lead to more intentional fouls disguised as normal fouls.

I’m not here with all the answers. You can scour the internet and see many different suggestions—using Elam scoring in the 4th quarter, allowing offensive teams to decline free throws similar to teams declining penalties in football, etc.

All have some sort of flaw that doesn’t quite sit right with me. Surely, there are people smarter than me whom the NBA can employ to figure it out. I hope so. I’d like to get back to more exciting late-game drama.

For a better reading experience (especially for watching videos and reading charts), read on the Butterflies website or download the Substack app.

Modern NBA foul baiting isn’t a player problem. It’s a rule-incentive problem.

Last Spring, I wrote about how we can fix college basketball. I argued the game was too choppy with too many stoppages compared to the NBA. While the NBA is much more entertaining and watchable, foul baiting is starting to destroy the sanctity of the game.

Over time, the NBA has shifted from a league where fouls punished excessive defensive contact to one where fouls increasingly reward offensive manipulation.

Fouls used to stop defenders from clobbering scorers. Now they reward offenses for creating contact defenders can’t avoid.

Foul manipulation has evolved in three phases:

1. Defensive deception (flopping)

2. Offensive exploitation of defensive mistakes

3. Illegal contact initiated by the offensive player

Defensive deception (flopping)

Back in the 70s and 80s, the NBA allowed much more contact. But slowly things started to change and players found ways to manipulate the game on the defensive side of the ball. Enter the art of the flop. The point of the flop is to sell the contact that is being made—to make the refs believe that the contact being made is illegal.

Players such as Valde Divac, Bill Laimbeer, and Dennis Rodman were the poster children for flopping. And it worked.

It’s difficult to say where the flop originated from; however, Divac is often cited by players as the one who took flopping to the next level.1 Once one player had success with it, it spread like wildfire.

In more recent times, offensive players have used flopping to sell foul calls. Manu Ginobili was one of the best floppers in modern times, often whipping his head back with minimal contact.2

In 2012, the NBA attempted to ban flopping with new rules and fines. The rule has gone through its iterations, but it hasn’t been very effective other than targeting a few culprits. The new rule had been so underutilized that in the first 10 years of the rule’s existence, only 31 total players had been fined.

In the 2023-24 season, the NBA implemented a non-unsportsmanlike technical foul for flopping, which has been called more frequently. Still, it hasn’t been utilized enough to eliminate flopping from the game. I get it. Calling a flopping technical foul every three minutes would get really old and bog down the flow of the game. Still, rewarding flops less often would slowly start to eliminate it from the bag of tricks players use.

Offensive exploitation of defensive mistakes

In 2004, the NBA banned defensive hand-checking, paving the way for more physical play from defenders to be punished. Officiating became more and more favorable for offenses. Defenders were now required to give offensive players space and freedom of movement was prioritized.

The rule change allowed offensive players to more easily exploit defensive mistakes. Offensive players could use moves to create situations were illegal contact was made by the defender. With this, defenders are the ones committing the foul, but the offensive player initiates moves to get defenders in a position where a foul is inevitable.

Players like Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, and Dwyane Wade utilized the pump fake to get defenders in the air and off balance. They would then use that to their advantage and go up into a shooting motion while defenders were on their way down or out of position, creating illegal contact and drawing fouls. Yes, the pump fake has been in the game since the 60s, but modern players have perfected it to get to the foul line.

Chris Paul is another one of the pioneers for making defenders initiate illegal contact with his masterful body control. He often used his speed to blow by defenders, cut them off, and then slow down to draw contact once the defender was on his hip. This caused illegal body contact created by the defender being out of position.

Although the herky-jerky, start-stop strategy of Chris Paul is starting to be removed from the game, I believe that exploiting defensive mistakes is still ethical because it utilizes smart offensive moves to make the defender initiate the contact first.

Illegal contact initiated by the offensive player

The early 2010s marked the real turning point. Analytics reframed offense around efficiency. Teams became smarter about seeking efficient shots and started to eliminate mid-range shots from the game. Pretty soon, layups, three pointers, and free throws became the focal point of offenses. And nothing was more efficient than free throws. has previously written about this and shared efficiency data on it.

Once teams realized this, the goal shifted from solely creating good shots to also creating fouls. This shift changed everything. It was only a matter of time before players figured out new ways to get to the foul line.

The difference now is that offensive players don’t just exploit defensive mistakes to draw fouls. They also initiate the illegal contact first, even when defenders are in legal guarding positions. This is what has given so many fans fits. It’s almost as if the defender can’t do anything about it. Their existence in the vicinity of the offensive player is the sin that compels the referee to blow the whistle.

Players have now added to their arsenal of offensive manipulation to initiate contact and get foul calls. Here are the ways they are doing it:

Shooting-based manipulation

Jumping into the defender while shooting: Players will unnaturally contort their body to make contact with a defender while shooting. This tactic is utilized most often after a successful pump fake, but it has been taken to the next level. However, it's clearly unnatural and not how players usually shoot a jump shot. The Association has cut back on this a bit, but it’s still rampant in the game today.3

Rip through: The rip through was perfected by Chris Paul when in a triple threat position.4 When a defender is guarding and has their hands out in front, the offensive player rips their arms from one side of their body to the other, making contact with the defender on the way through. Offensive players then pull up into a shot and easily get to the free-throw line. This tactic became too common and a cheat to get an easy shooting foul, so the NBA changed the rules for this to be a non-shooting foul.

Unnatural shooting motion: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has iterated on the rip-through move Chris Paul perfected. The unnatural shooting motion can start from any body position instead of in a triple threat position. SGA is great at using his off-hand to raise up and create contact as if he is going into a shooting motion.5 The move is completely unnatural to how anyone raises up to shoot, but that's obviously the point. He isn't actually trying to score in these situations. He's just trying to create contact to get a shooting foul call.

Spatial manipulation

Leg kick on jump shots: Shooters will extend their legs in unnatural ways to try to draw contact with the defender and get the foul call.6 Reggie Miller had some of this offensive initiated contact in his game when he would kick out his leg on jump shots, but the physical play in the game at the time kept the foul baiting in check. The Association is doing a better job of catching this trick and calling offensive fouls, but pretty much everyone does it and it happens regularly.

Extending landing space: According to the rules, defenders need to allow space for shooters to land. Thank Zaza Pachulia for that. However, some jump shooters will jump forward and land unnaturally, seeking contact with the defender in hopes of drawing a foul.7

Driving-based manipulation

Driving into arm contact: When an offensive player comes hard off a pick and roll, it creates mismatches with the smaller ball handler attacking a big. The point is to crossover and attack the front foot of the defender as they are in their defensive stance. After crossing over and attacking the front foot, offensive players will pick up the ball low and sweep their arms up to make contact with the defender's arm.8 Defenders will oftentimes reach in, but sometimes the offensive player just sweeps their arms up to make contact when the defender is in a legal guarding position. James Harden perfected this move, and now many are doing it, including rising players such as Deni Avdija.

Arm hook: Ah, the old arm hook. James Harden perfected hooking the arm of defenders, usually on drives. He would then raise up, causing contact that made it appear the defender was reaching in.9 Referees have figured it out and clamped down on this offensive player initiated contact, but it still happens regularly.

Hip/shoulder bump: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may not have invented the subtle hip/shoulder bump, but he certainly has perfected it. He initiates contact while driving and then exaggerates the contact to get the call.10 Defenders are left helpless without any room to avoid the contact.

Let’s fix the game

Flopping and offensive players initiating contact…

Some of these techniques have been dealt with after the 2021 rule change on non-basketball moves. But players adapt and will always find new techniques to draw fouls. As long as the incentives of foul baiting remain, new unnatural contact will be drawn by offensive players.

If the NBA truly wants to eliminate foul baiting from the game, it will have to adopt rules similar to FIBA. The NBA prioritizes offensive freedom. FIBA prioritizes the flow of the game. The NBA rewards trickery and offensive aggression. FIBA punishes players who make initial contact.

The NBA didn’t just overcorrect when it eliminated hand-checking; it rewarded deception. In trying to free offenses, it created a system where initiating contact is just as valuable as creating open shots. Until the league realigns incentives toward ethical basketball, players will continue to exploit every gray area available to them.

The NBA needs to get back to a game where defenses have a chance. Physicality should be a part of the game. It makes for a better flowing and more entertaining game. Fans didn’t fall in love with basketball because of whistles. The post–2024 All-Star break officiating showed that when the game is allowed to breathe, it’s still as beautiful as ever.

Every fan loves to relive unforgettable sports moments. I am honoring that nostalgia with a Butterflies series called “Replays.” Each edition will revisit a special sports memory, add context, and share reactions and commentary surrounding it.

Context

Ok, maybe this wasn’t one of the best sports moments. Quite the opposite. I don’t necessarily feel nostalgic for this Replays edition, but it was such a defining moment in the NBA that I feel compelled to take a look back. It’s one of those YouTube videos you visit every few years and think, “Wow, that actually happened.”

Just over 21 years ago, the Detroit Pistons and Indiana Pacers were among the elite teams in the NBA. They met for an early-season matchup on November 19, 2004.

The season prior (2003-04), Detroit won their first championship since the “Bad Boy” Pistons won back-to-back titles in 1989 and 1990. The Pistons beat the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals in six games on their way to lifting the Larry O’Brien trophy.

The Pacers proved they measured up and reignited the rivalry that had been building steam for years. With under a minute left in the 4th quarter, they had a 15-point lead and were ready to leave Detroit with a statement win.

What happened next has been immortalized in infamy.

The Moment

Reactions

Following the brawl, multiple Pacers players were suspended, which effectively erased Indiana’s chances of contending for a title. Ron Artest never returned to his previous form and was eventually traded during the 2005-26 season. The Malice and the Palace was a turning point for the Pacers, which led to a semi-rebuild until a player by the name of Paul George was drafted in 2010.

The incident also influenced rule and policy changes, including stricter arena security, limits on alcohol sales, and a greater emphasis on player conduct and image.

SportsCenter, the premier sports show at the time, reacts

Grantland’s oral history

Ron Artest shares behind-the-scenes details

Ron Artest on his biggest regret

Mike Breen on calling the Malice at the Palace

Comment Section

Free Kobbie Mainoo.

That’s what I said back on August 30th at the beginning of the new Premier League season. And I still feel the same now.

Football/soccer is a funny sport. It is much more common for a regular starter with one manager to fall out of favor with another manager compared to, say, a sport like basketball. It’s difficult to imagine an instrumental starter on a basketball team being completely removed from the rotation once a new coach is hired.

Yet, that is what has happened at Manchester United with Mainoo. Yes, young prospects come and go after an initial promising stint all the time. But not all play for England and prove themselves at the highest levels of competition at just 19 years old.

That’s what Mainoo and Manchester United fans are grappling with this season. A once promising up-and-coming star who was a bright spot during a bleak Erik ten Hag era is now struggling to get on the pitch for longer than a few minutes at a time. United’s starboy is now forgotten and treated as second-class by its current manager.

Benching in Football

One could argue that Manchester United’s midfield has been worse without Mainoo. United has had its challenges with Bruno Fernandes and Casemiro, but for various reasons, they are both favored over Mainoo.

Changes in player personnel in football are easier to justify because individual football players have far less impact on winning compared to other sports. This stems largely from football’s structure, with 11 players per side on a large field. The game emphasizes team coordination, possession, and player depth, making it harder for one player to dominate and easier for teams to absorb replacements without catastrophic drops in performance.

Contrast this with basketball, where only five players are on the court, and the best player has the ball the majority of the time. The same concept happens with American football. The quarterback touches the ball every offensive play, thus impacting winning at a much higher clip than any other player on the field.

A 2014 study analyzed professional teams across basketball, football, and baseball to examine how the proportion of elite players affects win-loss records. The findings highlight why football (and basketball to an extent) limits individual dominance, whereas baseball, where teamwork is limited, has a positive winning impact with talent accumulation.

In football, top talent generally improves team performance. However, at a certain point, there are diminishing returns, and adding more stars can even hurt performance. Just look at what is happening at Liverpool right now.

In sports where teammates must coordinate heavily to succeed, too many high-status or star players may lead to teamwork issues. Another way of putting it is that there is only one ball to go around.

So, why does this matter in the case of players like Mainoo? Because team fit and coordination matter more than raw talent alone. Mainoo may be deserving of being on the field, but Amorim is prioritizing the system over his young talent (even if many disagree with it).

In football, talent isn’t always the only lever for success, especially on any given matchday. Great coaching, chemistry, tactics, and cohesion can be just as important. The baffling thing with Mainoo is that it appeared that he was developing into one of the next great England midfielders. Now, he’s not even in the conversation to make England’s World Cup squad.

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The Rise of Kobbie Mainoo

Mainoo is a local boy. Born and raised in the Greater Manchester area. He was scouted by Manchester United and signed before he even hit double digits. In 2023, he was named the club’s young player of the year.

Mainoo made his senior team debut in the 2022/23 season, starting in a Carabao Cup win over Charlton. He appeared about a month later as a substitute in the Premier League in a victory against Leicester City. However, his breakthrough came in the 2023/24 season. He made 35 appearances across all competitions for Manchester United, starting all but three of those games. He scored five goals and had three assists, mainly from a CDM role. One of those goals came in the FA Cup Final against crosstown rival, Manchester City, which helped seal the win for United.

Mainoo was nominated for the Premier League Young Player of the Season award alongside Cole Palmer, Erling Haaland, Alexander Isak, Phil Foden, Bukayo Saka, William Saliba, and Destiny Udogie. He ended up losing out to Cole Palmer, but being among this group of names shows the type of class he had during his breakout season.

During the summer, he represented England at just 19 years of age at Euro 2024. He quickly earned playing time in the group stage matches and ended up starting throughout the knockout stages of the tournament. He set records for being among the youngest players to play for England in a major tournament, including starting in the final.

The 2024/25 club campaign started with Mainoo solidified as a key player at United. Having come off a deep Euro run in which he was a key piece of the England midfield, expectations were high. However, in early October, he was sidelined for almost two months with an injury. While recovering from his injury, Erik ten Hag was sacked, and Rúben Amorim was brought in as the new manager. After returning from injury, Mainoo slowly saw his minutes diminish until he was only playing sporadically off the bench by the end of the season.

At the time of publishing, we are now over three months into the 2025/26 season, and Mainoo has only recorded 177 minutes in eight Premier League games, all off the bench.

Despite his lack of playing time over the last year, he’s still in at least the 85th percentile for progressive carries, successful take-ons, touches in the penalty area, and progressive passes received among midfielders in the top five European leagues. Something that should be praised, given how difficult it is to get into a rhythm with inconsistent minutes.

The Rise of Rúben Amorim

Amorim retired from playing in 2017 and quickly stepped into management. He secured his first managerial job in 2018 for Casa Pia in Portugal’s third division. After defeats in his first two games as the manager, he almost quit, saying he wasn’t cut out for the job. After being convinced to stay, he changed his system to a back three, which has shaped his tactical thinking to this day. He ended up winning the third division and was promoted.

The next year, he joined Braga to coach its reserve side, but took over the first team after only a few months. Then, in March 2020, Sporting made Amorim one of the most expensive manager hires at the time, snatching him away from Braga. Amorim delivered by winning the league during his first full season in charge. By 2023/24, he delivered another league title, and there began to be rumblings of what he could do as a manager outside of Portugal.

Liverpool reportedly explored signing Amorim, but never agreed with his philosophy of playing with a back three. Additionally, it is reported that Amorim took part in talks with West Ham.

Sir Jim Ratcliffe, a British billionaire and lifelong Manchester United fan, founded INEOS in 1998 as a chemicals and manufacturing giant. On December 24, 2023, Manchester United announced Ratcliffe’s £1.03 billion ($1.3 billion) deal for a 25% stake (later increased to 27.7% with additional investment), plus $300 million for infrastructure. The deal was ratified by the Premier League and FA and completed on February 20, 2024. This gave INEOS full oversight of sporting matters, including coaches, players, and recruitment.

Ultimately, after a poor start to the 2024/25 campaign, Manchester United was in search of a new manager. Amorim was their man for the job and was hired on November 1, 2024. A short six years after starting his coaching career, Amorim was now the man pulling the strings for arguably the second biggest club in the world.

INEOS has certainly made its mark in its short tenure in charge, targeting and signing Amorim. Ratcliffe praised Amorim as an “outstanding young manager“ and pledged three years to implement his vision, emphasizing patience over quick decisions.

Since taking over, INEOS has backed Amorim and made changes on the pitch. Players such as Rashford, Garnacho, Antony, and Hojlund all fell out of favor in Amorim’s new system. All have since left the club on either a permanent transfer or load and have found success elsewhere.

What’s Next for Mainoo

Despite some recent success, United still sits only 10th in the Premier League at the time of writing. It is clear that Amorim is in the good graces of INEOS for the time being. If it’s ever a choice between Mainoo (and the academy) or Amorim, Amorim is always going to win. Just look at the players who he has dumbed by the wayside.

Rumors are constantly swirling around Mainoo and whether he will be granted the loan he so desires. Who knows, the prospects of a transfer might be on the horizon soon too. I fully expect Amorim to continue to rebuild Manchester United in a way that better fits his system. Mainoo will probably be a casualty. But as I said back on August 30th, it’s likely for the best for his future.

You know that feeling when sports writing just hits different? Every so often, I round up the best content I’ve consumed. “Seven Wonders” is a Butterflies series where I share my favorites.

The air is crisp, and the evenings carry a gentle chill. It is definitely fall, one of the best times of the year for sports fans. We just finished up a classic World Series that has brought the conversation back to baseball. The NBA has started, and football and soccer are in full swing.

I haven’t shared some of my favorite articles I’ve come across since the summer, so here they are for your reading pleasure.

But first, here are some of my recent posts you may have missed:

The NBA Gambling Problem Will Continue. We will see more gambling-related scandals. Adam Silver has a lot to do to make things right.

The Kevin Durant Paradox. KD is one of the best to ever play. But why does his career feel so unfulfilled? I identify some of the weaknesses in his game and share why his journeyman career is sad, but shouldn’t be the focus of his legacy.

How England’s Top Flight Became Europe’s Super League. A few years ago, a proposed European Super League was abandoned in part due to the backlash from fans. Now, a Super League is being built right under our noses.

Liverpool and the Anfield Cauldron. A look into the effect Anfield plays in Liverpool’s success by breaking down the numbers.

FC Red Bull: More Than an Energy Drink. How Red Bull has built a multi-club empire that both disrupts traditional football models and raises ethical questions.

Dame Time, One Last Time. As a Blazers fan, I reflect on Dame’s move back to Portland and how I love the move despite it not making a ton of sense from a roster-building perspective.

ICYMI: Check out my new series, “Replays,” where I revisit a special sports memory, add context, and share commentary and reactions surrounding it.

And now, here are the seven best things I’ve read in sports recently:

The Utah Jazz Killed NBA Black Uniforms? by . A fascinating inside look from the NBA’s first Creative Director on the evolution of the black uniform and why David Stern banned it for 14 years.

Ghana’s broken football dreams: why an African nation will never win the World Cup by (Howard Akumiah and James Corbett). Having spent some time in Ghana myself, this is an engaging read on the history of Ghanaian soccer and the challenges facing the game in the West African country.

Scattered Scandal Thoughts: The Vision Imperative by . Amidst the NBA betting scandal, explore the moral dilemmas and the impact of visibility into what is happening in the gambling world.

Breaking down ‘The Decision’ by . My wife and in-laws are big Mariners fans, so this hits close to home. Joe breaks down the crucial choices that doomed the Seattle Mariners in Game 7 of the ALCS, leaving them to head home for the winter.

Alisson Becker and German Emigration to Brazil by . Learn how Alisson Becker’s German ancestry and the broader history of German migration to Brazil reflect deeper threads of identity, sport, and diaspora in Brazilian society.

Why the Copa Libertadores Is a Greater Club Competition Than the Champions League by . Experience the sights and sounds of the Copa Libertadores, South America’s biggest and most prestigious club tournament.

Do Timeouts Stop Opponent Runs? by . A great breakdown for data nerds on the effectiveness of calling timeouts to stop scoring runs in the NBA.

Emergency post! I woke up to several texts from friends and family about Chauncey Billups and was immediately distracted from doing anything productive during my typical morning routine. Can the NBA go 24 hours without drama? Apparently not. I couldn’t not write a post about my feelings as a Portland Trail Blazers fan. Apologies if there are any typos or grammatical errors; I’m currently writing this at midnight.

In case you missed it, Chauncey Billups, Terry Rozier, and Damon Jones were arrested by the FBI for allegations involving illegal gambling with the mafia and providing information/manipulating bets on NBA games. I usually try to withhold judgement until proven guilty (see the current Malik Beasley situation), but this feels pretty damning.

Billups is probably the highest profile arrest for sports gambling since Tim Donaghy, certainly since it was widely legalized. He’s not only a Hall of Fame basketball player, but also a coach who can easily influence basketball games based on his personnel decisions, similar to a referee. Chauncey even had a Freudian slip in his post-game press conference (start at 5:11). You can’t write a better script than this.

What We Know

The details are still murky, and new information is coming to light every hour, but the gist of it is that the FBI arrested Billups yesterday morning, hours after the Blazers’ season-opening game.

The FBI has been investigating an illegal gambling and sports rigging operation that spans 11 states. In total, over 30 people have been arrested, including 13 members of La Cosa Nostra (Italian mafia).

Billups is being accused of being involved in a rigged poker scheme where he was the set-up guy, along with other former famous athletes, to lure rich people to participate and be scammed. It is alleged that he received a kickback for his efforts.

The rigged poker games included altered shuffling machines, poker chip trays that read cards through hidden cameras, contact lenses and glasses that could read marked cards, and even an X-ray poker table that could read cards that were face down.

Additionally, there is suspicion that Billups was involved in providing insider information for gamblers to place bets that the Blazers would lose a game in 2023. The following excerpt is from Yahoo Sports:

On March 24, 2023, the Portland Trail Blazers played the Chicago Bulls in a game that was all but irrelevant for both teams.

Prior to the game an individual identified as “Co-Conspirator 8” told one of the defendants, Eric Earnest, that “the Trail Blazers were going to be tanking to increase their odds of getting a better draft pick in the upcoming NBA draft.”

Co-Conspirator 8 informed Earnest, prior to the news becoming public, that several of the Blazers’ best players would not be playing. According to the indictment, Earnest gave the inside information to Marves Fairley, another defendant, for the purposes of betting on the game. Fairley promised to pay Earnest at least $5,000 if the bets paid off.

Fairley and another defendant, Shane Hennen, along with another individual termed “Co-Conspirator 1” who was an NBA player at the time, then placed approximately $100,000 worth of bets against the Blazers.

The Bulls won the game decisively, 124-96, as many of the Blazers’ best players, including Damian Lillard, did not play. Both Lillard and Nurkic were shut down for the season starting with the March 24 game.

A question looming over this game: Who is Co-Conspirator 8?

The indictment identifies Co-Conspirator 8 as “a resident [of] Oregon” and “an NBA player from approximately 1997 through 2014, and an NBA coach since at least 2021.”

Chauncey Billups played in the NBA for multiple teams from 1997 through 2014. He has been the head coach of the Portland Trail Blazers since 2021.

My Thoughts

Remember, this isn’t the first time Chauncey has gotten into legal trouble. He was accused of rape in 1997, which caused quite an uproar from a segment of Blazers fans when he was originally hired.

If you know my Blazers fandom, you know I’ve never been much of a Billups fan. Obviously, I don’t condone crime (I don’t even think I knew about his rape allegations until he was in the running to be hired as the Blazers coach), but most of my original dislike for him was his inability to coach.

Early in his second season as the Blazers’ coach, I remember texting my brother-in-law something to the effect of, “I don’t think Chauncey can coach.” His rotations were weird, the offense was stagnant, and overall, he just seemed a little clueless.

As all the news broke yesterday morning, I joked with that same brother-in-law that maybe the Blazers’ new, incoming manager agreed with me about Billups’ coaching abilities and called in the tip to the FBI. Others on X certainly were getting in on the fun for other infamous NBA executives.

Billups’ coaching identity didn’t really form until about eight months ago, right after the All-Star break last season. That’s when the Blazers’ defense was one of the best in the league, and Portland started to win games. Ever since, the Blazers have focused all their efforts on making defense their top priority. Billups has really taken on the persona of a defense-first coach, and his reputation was starting to spread around the league. Just check out what Anthony Edwards said after the season opener (start at 2:45).

With these new developments, it feels like all the progress the Blazers have made over the last eight months is now in jeopardy. Tiago Splitter was just named as the interim head coach, but I’m of the opinion that the Blazers need to act quickly to find a new permanent head coach. Portland can’t be in limbo for a whole season unless the plan now is to tank.

However, after watching the pre-season and the opening game of the regular season, I think the team will be too good. Plus, these young players need to feel the pressure of playing in at least a few semi-important games to grow, develop, and learn how to win. The dark cloud of Billups will only be lifted if the Blazers move on quickly by hiring a new coach sooner rather than later. And hey, if Billups was manipulating games, maybe the silver lining is that the Blazers are better than we think!

Tonight, the Golden State Warriors visit the Portland Trail Blazers. Terry Stotts, the Blazers’ head coach preceding Billups, is now an assistant on the Warriors’ sideline. It certainly is funny the way this all unfolded. I wouldn’t be surprised if he sips a beer as he watches the game. IYKYK.

I know I’ve been focused on the basketball implications of all of this, but I don’t think that’s what the story is really about. It’s about the gambling problem the NBA is having, and honestly, the society that has welcomed it with open arms.

Advertisements for gambling sites are everywhere. Sports commercials, sports podcast sponsors, newsletters dedicated to it, on the bottom ESPN ticker as the Billups news broke, and the list goes on. Unless the NBA and the states take a complete U-turn on legalized sports gambling, things will only get worse.

Literally this week, the NCAA announced that it will now allow college athletes to bet on professional sports starting November 1st. We are going to have a whole generation of college athletes who will become addicted to gambling and take that behavior with them as they enter the professional ranks. It’s a disaster waiting to happen.

As Zach Lowe said, “This is going to be a before and after day in the history of sports and gambling in basketball.” The choice of whether this is a slippery slope or a brick wall will come down to how these scandals are handled.

If you want to read more about the history, scandal, and impact of sports betting, check out my post from last year below.

Ah, the NBA is back, and it feels so good.

Kevin Durant has spent his entire career chasing something he may never catch. Not points or accolades, those come easily, but a kind of peace that no jersey swap has ever delivered. Now, he’s in Houston. Another team, another clean slate. The Rockets have received a fair amount of pre-season hype because Durant is now on the roster. But I have my doubts.

Durant entered the league as a lanky kid who famously couldn’t bench press 185 pounds even once at the Draft Combine. Contrast that image with Greg Oden, a big, burly center out of Ohio State, with whom Durant was competing to be the top pick in the draft. It’s hard to recall a conversation in which Durant and Oden were mentioned in the same sentence, which highlights how long Durant has been at it. A constant while the league around him changes.

Durant has graced us with his smooth jumper. His ability to get to his spot at will. His underrated trash-talking, especially to rookies. The memeable faces he makes. His Team USA moments. And his time will likely be coming to an end very soon.

Everyone knows about the impact Kevin Durant has on a basketball game. To such an extent that all you have to do is say his name, and you know it means trouble for the opposition. Durant reminded everyone what he’s capable of when he broke down a first-round series against the Clippers.

Then, after losing the hard-fought series, Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams wholeheartedly admitted that sometimes all you can do is watch while Durant performs his craft.

There’s no question Durant is a generational talent. However, his legacy (I hate to use that word) is a complicated one. The thing that still has me scratching my head is that his career reads like a masterpiece missing its final chapter. Though he did win two championships and two Finals MVPs, they will forever be tainted in the eyes of fans because it happened after joining a 73-9 Warriors team that had his former teammate calling him a cupcake.

Shouldn’t Durant, who was a top 1-3 player in the world for 5-10 years, have at least one championship outside of his Warriors runs? Especially when he has played with future Hall of Famers such as James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Kyrie Irving, and Devin Booker, all while they were in or near their primes? You would think someone considered a top 15ish player of all-time would have a signature championship run.

In my view, Durant has had an unbelievable career, but hasn’t impacted winning at an elite level. However, I wanted to go deep to see if my thinking was correct. I first researched his career and the circumstances surrounding each of his tenures with different teams.

Oklahoma City Thunder (2008-2016)

Durant led a young up-and-coming Thunder team to the 2012 Finals. The road to the Finals included beating heavyweight teams who had been there, done that. The Thunder swept the defending NBA champion, the Dallas Mavericks, in the first round. Then in the Second Round, they beat Kobe and the LA Lakers, who were two years removed from back-to-back championships. Finally, they beat the favored San Antonio Spurs, who were in the midst of their dynastic run during the Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili era. Unfortunately, for Durant and the Thunder, they fell short in the NBA Finals to LeBron, Wade, and Bosh.

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During his time in Oklahoma City, Durant and the Thunder made the Western Conference Finals an additional three times (2011, 2014, 2016), but 2012 was the only season they made it to the Finals. The Thunder were plagued with injuries that impacted their playoff hopes, including Westbrook being out for the 2013 playoffs and Durant missing most of 2014/15 with a foot injury.

The Thunder’s best chance at making the Finals again came in 2016 when they blew a 3-1 series lead to the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors ended up blowing their own 3-1 lead in the Finals, which eventually led to Durant signing with Golden State after the infamous Draymond Green recruitment call.

Durant’s Thunder time probably should be viewed as a young, overachieving team that couldn’t get over the hump and eventually ran into superior teams in the Heat and Warriors. In my opinion, Durant is off the hook for not winning a championship in Oklahoma City, even though falling short in 2016 feels like a failure.

Brooklyn Nets (2020-2023)

For a while, Durant seemed to have what he always wanted. Freedom. Rings. Validation. But even surrounded by the game’s purest form of basketball in Golden State, something in him, and us, never settled.

After three years with the Warriors and a season lost to a torn Achilles, Durant stepped on the court for the Brooklyn Nets in search of winning on his own terms.

When he teamed up with Harden and Irving, it looked like the Nets would be competing for championships for the foreseeable future. However, injuries and off-court drama changed all of that. Durant only played a little over half his games over two seasons, and Irving had issues with the COVID vaccine and an antisemitic social media post. Eventually, all three stars requested trades.

Ultimately, injuries and off-court drama derailed what was a promising start to a new Nets era. We’ll never know what could have been because we never got to see a fully available Nets team in the playoffs.

Should Durant be blamed for Brooklyn’s failure? Probably not. Perhaps if he were a better leader, he could have taken control of the locker room and gotten everyone on the same page, but that feels especially harsh given Harden and Irving were some of the biggest divas in the Association at the time.

Phoenix Suns (2023-2025)

Durant joined the Suns and created another “big three” with Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. Durant’s time in Phoenix was similar to his time in Brooklyn, plagued by injuries. During the 2023/24 season, the three only played 41 games together and were swept in the first round by the Minnesota Timberwolves. The team failed to make the playoffs during the 2024/25 season and finished with just 36 wins.

Things probably should have turned out a lot better in Phoenix. Yes, injuries occurred, but Phoenix was coming off a 2021 NBA Finals appearance in which they were just two wins away from lifting the trophy.

Can Durant be blamed for the Suns’ regression? I don’t think you can blame Durant himself, but he did cost Phoenix a lot to get him. Most of the blame should probably be put on Matt Ishbia for some of his poor choices in the trade market.

On the surface, it appears that Durant has joined teams that were set up to win. It probably feels like Durant should shoulder more of the blame because each situation he entered has blown up in his face. In the end though, circumstances prevented Durant from winning deep into May and June more than anything else.

Durant’s Individual Stats

If we say Durant shouldn’t be blamed for his team situations, maybe there is some glaring weakness in his individual game that points to him not impacting winning at an elite level.

First, let’s look at Durant’s top-line stats and awards. In the regular season, he has averaged 27.2 points per game throughout his career. He is an efficient scorer, too. He has an eFG% of .554, 2P% of .543, 3P% of .390, and TS% of .620.

In the playoffs, he scores more while being slightly less efficient. He averages 29.3 points per game, an eFG% of .529, 2P% of .527, 3P% of .356, and TS% of .599.

In total, he has scored 30,571 points, good for eighth all-time. He has also been named the MVP once, been the top five in MVP voting six times, been an All-Star 15 times, been a six-time First Team All-NBA player, and been a five-time Second Team All-NBA player.

It’s fair to say Durant has almost all the accolades one could want. So what do his advanced stats reveal?

Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) predicts a player’s contribution to the team in points per 100 possessions. Durant has been in the top five in the league four times throughout his career (2010, 2012, 2013, 2014).

Over the last 20 years, LeBron James (13), Chris Paul (12), Steph Curry (10), Kawhi Leonard (7), Giannis Antetokounmpo (6), Dirk Nowitzki (5), Joel Embiid (5), Nikola Jokic (6), Dwight Howard (4), and James Harden (4) have equaled or exceeded Durant’s top five EPM finishes. Based on Durant’s cumulation of awards, I would have thought he would be higher on the list here, but I don’t think this diminishes Durant’s status. It’s just one statistic.

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Win Shares (WS) estimate the number of wins a player contributes to. Durant’s WS per 48 minutes (WS/48) is .2042, which is good for 24th all-time. For context, Karl Malone sits just ahead of Durant, and Larry Bird sits just below him. I’d say that’s pretty good company.

Ok, let’s go to Box Plus-Minus (BPM), which uses box score data and the team’s overall performance to estimate a player’s contribution in points above the league average per 100 possessions. In this statistic, Durant sits 13th all-time with 6.42. Steph Curry is right above him, and James Harden is right below him. Again, great company.

But does Durant make his teammates better?

According to BBall Index, Durant had the 10th highest overall gravity in the NBA last season, which indicates that just being on the floor can help his teammates get better looks.

However, his assist percentage (AST%), which estimates the percentage of teammate field goals a player assists while on the floor, is 20.6 for his career, pretty average for a wing player like Durant. Ben Taylor of Thinking Basketball has been pretty critical of Durant’s passing ability and poor court awareness.

Where Durant also falls short for such an elite player is on the defensive side of the ball. While a decent defender at the rim, he has struggled on the perimeter, especially since his Achilles injury. Last season, he averaged only 1.5 deflections per 36 minutes, which ranks 186th of 207 forwards who played at least 300 minutes.

When not surrounded by good team defenders, his abilities on the defensive side of the ball become more exposed. Durant’s defensive BPM (DBPM) is only good for 185th all-time, right alongside David West and Christian Laettner.

While not a great playmaker or defender, perhaps Durant’s greatest weakness as a player is his health. He has played 70+ games in only nine of his 18 seasons in the NBA. His availability has definitely become a challenge since his Achilles injury.

Winning Time?

So there it is. We finally found a few flaws in Durant’s game. But does that make him not a winning player?

My instinct about him has been correct in the fact that he is always going to get his. However, he doesn’t necessarily make his teammates better, which can be the difference between a role player hitting a big shot (cough, Robert Horry) or not. He obviously knows he’s supposed to make his teammates better (see his interview in the YouTube video above), but he hasn’t consistently shown the ability to deliver in that category throughout his career.

Still, when the ball is in his hands and he’s ready to create for himself, he is among the best to ever play.

After investigating Durant’s team situations and observing his elite-level stats, it’s hard to say he doesn’t contribute to winning. Maybe he just doesn’t contribute to winning at as high a level as we think he should given his elite ability to score the ball.

As I have previously written, the NBA is more talented than ever. Maybe the era of superstars dominating and winning multiple championships isn’t as realistic anymore, especially for Durant as he ages.

Another possible reason I have this perception of Durant is that he has played for multiple teams without producing championships, barring Golden State. It feels as if we see the same story playing out everywhere he goes.

Moses Malone was a journeyman while playing in the ABA and NBA. Despite his three MVPs and countless accolades, he is probably still underrated in the all-time conversation.

If Durant stayed with the Thunder, I imagine my opinion and the conversation would be different, even if he never won a championship there. As USA TODAY shared, Durant’s journeyman career is kinda sad, and it hasn’t helped the perception of him as an all-time great.

The one consolation about watching Durant’s career is that the dude loves to hoop. It’s all he’s really wanted to do. You at least know he’ll give his all until the end, no matter what may hold him back from winning on his own. Maybe the truth is that Durant’s story isn’t about failure or fulfillment, but about a man still in love with the game. Maybe I can finally stop asking these silly questions that don’t really matter and just enjoy watching the last bit of basketball he has left in him.

Every fan loves to relive unforgettable sports moments. I am honoring that nostalgia with a Butterflies series called “Replays.” Each edition will revisit a special sports memory, add context, and share commentary and reactions surrounding it.

Context

The 2016 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship game will go down as one of the best ever. North Carolina entered the game as a #1 seed and two-point favorites over the #2 seed Villanova Wildcats. The game featured 10 future NBA players, with Josh Hart (Villanova) and Brice Johnson (North Carolina) leading their respective teams.

With just over five minutes remaining, Villanova had a 10-point lead, but North Carolina came roaring back.

Marcus Paige of North Carolina hit a wild off-balanced three-pointer to tie the game with 4.7 seconds remaining. No one really remembers this shot. I certainly didn’t. However, it was a great shot that could have been iconic had the outcome been different.

Villanova had the ball under their own basket with one last possession before overtime. This set the stage for the dramatic moment.

The Moment

Reactions

Student reactions watching at Villanova University (fair warning, turn the volume down)

Oral histories

Multiple oral histories have been written describing the final moments of this game. This one is my favorite. Maybe my favorite quote from the whole piece was Villanova’s guard, Ryan Arcidiacono, who had the assist and talked about the preparation that went into the final play:

“It was something we’d practiced every single day for like the last four years. We all knew I was gonna have the ball in my hands to make the decision of what was going to happen.”

My second favorite quote was from Kris Jenkins, who knew exactly how North Carolina was going to defend the play:

“I told Arch when we broke the huddle that I had a chance to be open, because they’re not going to put anyone on the ball when I take it out.”

Comment section: The perfect setup (thank you, Grant Hill)

Comment section: IYKYK (Explanation, Original video)

Comment section: Technically six future NBA players, but who’s counting

Comment section: A story for the ages

Comment section: On the reaction from the Villanova students

Comment section: Pete Carroll is still catching strays…

One Shining Moment

You can’t show one of the best college basketball moments ever without acknowledging the One Shining Moment that followed.

Much has been said about this summer's transfer window and how the spending has hit another level. It seemed like typed out his famous, "Here we go!" on social media every hour. It certainly was the case over the last two days before the window closed. So much was happening that it was difficult to keep up. The thing that stuck out this summer was how all the big signings seemed to be going to the Premier League.

• Alexander Isak - Liverpool, €145m

• Florian Wirtz - Liverpool, €125m

• Hugo Ekitiké - Liverpool, €95m

• Benjamin šeško - Man Utd, €76.5m

• Nick Woltemade - Newcastle, €75m

• Bryan Mbeumo - Man Utd, €75m

• Matheus Cunha - Man Utd, €74.2m

• Martin Zubimendi - Arsenal, €70m

• Eberechi Eze - Arsenal, €69.3m

• Viktor Gyökeres - Arsenal, €65.8m

• Xavi Simons - Tottenham, €65m

• Mohammed Kudus - Tottenham, €63.8m

• João Pedro - Chelsea, €63.7m

These names account for 13 of the top 16 signings by transfer fees this summer. It's almost as if other European leagues have become feeder leagues for the Premier League. With this seismic shift happening, the time has come to revisit the idea of a European Super League.

Let me explain.

While it would be exciting to see Real Madrid vs Chelsea on a random weekend in late August, we still essentially get that in the current iteration of the Champions League—it just starts a month later.

Instead, we are witnessing a European Super League being consolidated within the Premier League. This is due to the Premier League's significant spending power compared to other top European leagues. Just check out this crazy tidbit from :

According to Transfermarkt, nine of the top 10 club spenders in the world came from the Premier League this summer. If you expand this to the top 25 spenders, 14 came from the Premier League. This isn't just a one-off summer spending spree for Premier League teams either.

If you zoom out and look from the 2019/20 season through present day, the Premier League holds eight of the top 10 spending spots and 12 of the top 25.

This spending power shift towards the Premier League hasn't always existed. Examining spending between the 2014/15 and 2018/19 seasons, only four of the top 10 spenders were from the Premier League. Among the top 25, 10 resided in England.

Looking back even further from 2000/01 to 2013/14, approximately half (5) of the top 10 spenders and eight of the top 25 were from the Premier League.

Over the past 25 years, spending was much more balanced across the top five European leagues. But today, the Premier League dominates.

As long as spending power continues to be concentrated in the Premier League, more Premier League teams will be superior on the field.

Consider last year's Europa League Final, the second-best European tournament trophy. Tottenham defeated Manchester United, two teams that finished 15th and 17th in the Premier League table. Despite winning the tournament, Tottenham finished with 38 points and was just one spot away from being relegated.

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Now, could teams like Crystal Palace or Bournemouth compete for a Serie A title? Eh, probably not right now. However, the trend appears to be going in that direction. It might be difficult to imagine a mid-table team in England competing for a title in Italy, Germany, France, or Spain, but consider the data.

Examining the differences in player payrolls across the top five leagues reveals stark disparities. The median payroll for a Premier League team is €30 million more than the next closest league (Serie A). In fact, all Premier League clubs outside of the three recently promoted (Leeds, Burnley, Sunderland) are among the top 41 club payrolls across the top five European Leagues.

Remarkably, when comparing median payrolls, Ligue 1 has smaller salaries than England's second-tier league, the EFL Championship.

One reason for the higher pay is that owners in England are richer than those in other countries. A brief Google Search reveals that the Premier League dominates the list of richest owners. As long as owners are wealthier, players will be paid more, and talent will migrate to where the money resides. Players want to maximize their earnings, compete at the highest level, and prove that they belong among the best. Right now, the Premier League increasingly attracts top talent.

The bigger question becomes how teams outside of England stay competitive. Outside of the Premier League, there are really only 10-13 clubs that are considered big in terms of spending and payroll. Outside of those select clubs, we'll continue to see a widening on the field.

Now, all of this can change if new investors or owners swoop in and buy smaller clubs. However, I expect new investors would prefer to put their money into a Premier League club. Let's face it, the Premier League has everything going for it to continue growing as a capitalist powerhouse.

It is the most-watched soccer league in the world, broadcast in over 200 countries. It’s the default international product, whereas other top leagues (La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1) are far more regional in appeal.

The fact that the Premier League is English-centric helps with its appeal in the world's most wealthy market, the United States. Commentary, interviews, analysis, and internet blogs are all produced in English, making them easy for Americans to understand and follow.

Importantly, the Premier League is accessible in the U.S. market. Over 50 million Americans now watch international soccer leagues, and 72% of those 50 million tune in to the Premier League.

The Premier League has the biggest TV rights deals domestically and internationally compared to the other top European leagues. American viewership through the Premier League's deal with NBC and Peacock continues to grow each year. In terms of all revenue generated, Premier League clubs earn about 60% more than Bundesliga clubs and more than three times more than Serie A and La Liga clubs.

Everyone knows the financial challenges of operating a European club nowadays, but English clubs have a built-in advantage by playing in the Premier League.

For domestic leagues in Europe, financial dominance has shifted toward England. The European soccer landscape doesn't look the same as it did 10 years ago, and I bet it will continue to lean more heavily toward England 10 years from now. For years, soccer's financial powers have been spread across Europe (with more money flowing through Italy in the 80s and 90s). Now, the concentration of wealth and talent in the Premier League has never been greater.

Is this good for the global game? That's open to debate. Does it water down the rest of European soccer? Probably. Is the Premier League more exciting week in and week out? Absolutely.

Every fan loves to relive unforgettable sports moments. I am honoring that nostalgia with a Butterflies series called "Replays." Each edition will revisit a special sports memory, add context, and share commentary and reactions surrounding it.

Context

The 2013 iteration of the Iron Bowl was the most-watched game during the 2013/14 college football season. Alabama, the #1 ranked team in the nation, had won two straight BCS National Championships and was just two games away from playing for its third in a row. Auburn started the season unranked, but through several close wins, entered the game undefeated and ranked #4. The winner would play for the SEC Championship and have a chance to play for a National Championship.

Auburn had trailed, but rallied to tie the game with just over 30 seconds remaining. Alabama quickly marched down the field and had one second left on the clock to try and win it. Madness then ensued.

The Moment

The Auburn Radio Call

The CBS Broadcast

Reactions

Awards

At the 2014 ESPY Awards, it was named the best play and the best game of the year in all of North American sports. Some have said it's the greatest single moment in college football history.

The Auburn band

Fan reactions

Comment Section: For the Love of the Game

Comment Section: It's About Family

Comment Section: Pete Carroll Catches a Stray

Let me know what you think about this series and if you’d like to see more posts like this.

The new Premier League season started this past weekend, and Anfield hosted the first match. The Liverpool faithful gave an emotional tribute of "You'll Never Walk Alone" for Diogo Jota, turning Anfield into more of a cathedral than a stadium.

Anfield is known as one of the most iconic and intimidating stadiums in world football, famous for its electric atmosphere and the passion of Liverpool’s supporters. The stadium’s heart is the Kop, a massive single-tier stand where thousands of fans sing in unison, creating a wall of sound that can lift the team and unsettle opponents. Legendary European nights at Anfield, such as the famous 4-0 victory over Barcelona, or the Round of 16 match against Bayern Munich when the crowd drowned out the Champions League anthem, make for a coveted bucket list visit.

Qualitatively, there isn't a more difficult stadium to win at for an opposing team in all of Europe. Many current and former players and managers have made similar statements.

Watching Anfield go berserk after two goals at the death of the season-opening victory made me think about how much the stadium and its frenzied fans impact winning. I looked at the 2024/25 Premier League season and gathered the results of each game, home team, and goals scored for each team to create a home advantage model.

The Effect of Playing at Home After Controlling for Team Strength

The home goal differential values in the table below are directly interpreted as the goal differential (home goals minus away goals) a team is expected to achieve when playing at home compared to a neutral field, after controlling for team strength and opponent quality. These values are expressed in goals and represent the isolated effect of the home venue on a match outcome.

As you can see, Liverpool sits in the middle of the pack, which was surprising to me. Still, this score can be interpreted as a modest boost for Liverpool when playing at Anfield.

Aston Villa and Newcastle had a large one-goal bump while playing at home. What may be a 1-0 win on a neutral site might be a 2-0 or 3-1 win at Villa Park or St James' Park.

The Impact of Team + Venue

However, this analysis leaves out the strength of a team. We know that games aren't played in a vacuum of perfect conditions. Ask any player if it's more difficult to play at Villa Park or Anfield, and I bet 10 out of 10 times the answer is Anfield.

For Liverpool, Anfield is just one piece of the puzzle in creating a challenging venue to visit. What creates the perfect condition is the fact that the team is so good. If we consider the strength of the team plus Anfield, the numbers tell a different story, making playing Liverpool at Anfield a near-impossible task for visiting teams.

Analysis of match data without controlling for team strength shows Liverpool's dominance, evident in their overall average goal differential of +1.184 goals across all matches.

Liverpool’s average goal differential at Anfield was +1.368 goals per match, the highest in the Premier League in the 2024/25 season. This reflects their elite team strength and the stadium’s unique boost.

When comparing Liverpool's home performance (+1.368) to their away performance (+1.000), we see a +0.368 goal differential at Anfield. This stadium-specific advantage, above the league average of +0.181, underscores once again the tangible impact of Anfield.

No matter where Liverpool plays, they are going to be difficult to snag a point from, let alone defeat. For opponents, the combination of Liverpool’s world-class talent and Anfield’s intimidating environment creates a near-impossible venue to capture points. That is what makes Anfield such a storied place to visit. However, the devastating combination of team and venue has to be consistent over many years for a ground to receive the lore status of Anfield.

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The History of Anfield

The mystique of Anfield dates back to its opening way back in 1884. It was originally the home of Everton. Can you imagine if that was still the case today? At the time, it was less of a stadium and more of a field with bleachers around it. Everton had success with Anfield as its home venue and won a league championship in 1891.

However, in 1892, disputes between the ground owner and Everton led to the team's move to Goodison Park. Everton's former president and the one paying for Anfield, John Houlding, was now without a team. That's when he decided to create his own club, which would become the world-famous Liverpool.

Liverpool quickly worked its way up through the lower divisions in England and won its first of 20 top-flight titles in 1901. As Liverpool kept winning, the seating capacity continued expanding. The famous Kop was built in 1906 and held up to 20,000 fans at the time.

Liverpool won a couple more league titles in the early 1900s, but slipped into mediocrity in the early 1950s, eventually being relegated in 1954, spending eight years in the second division. The turning point came in 1959 with the appointment of Bill Shankly as manager. Shankly rebuilt the club from top to bottom.

His success laid the foundation for decades of dominance. Liverpool returned to top-flight football in 1962, won the league title in 1964, and secured their first FA Cup in 1965. Around this time, “You’ll Never Walk Alone,” became the club’s anthem after fans began singing it at Anfield, forever linking it to Liverpool’s identity.

Liverpool’s golden era truly arrived in the 1970s and 1980s, under Shankly’s successors Bob Paisley and Joe Fagan. Paisley guided The Reds to six league titles and three European Cups (1977, 1978, 1981), making Liverpool a dominant force in English and European football.

Throughout the years, Anfield has continued to expand. More recently, expansion and development has pushed capacity to over 61,000 seats where spectators can watch some of the best football in the world.

A world-class team. A rabid fanbase. A large stadium. A winning tradition. All of this creates the perfect storm. It turns a stadium into a living, breathing force in which opposing teams wilt.

That is why Anfield has become one of football’s great venues. It is a place where history, passion, and excellence converge. Where “You’ll Never Walk Alone” rings out as both an anthem and a warning. Where visiting teams know that the margin for error is razor-thin. In the end, Anfield is a symbolic weapon as powerful as Mo Salah's strike of the ball.

A little over 10 years ago, I spent a couple of months in Ghana during the summer. Outside of the hostel where I stayed lived a few teenage boys. They lived and slept on the floor of a little shed.

We became friends with them. Our most common interest was football/soccer. They invited me and a few others to one of their games, where we watched them play on a dirt field. Their dream, like thousands of other kids, was to play at the top levels. At the time, I wondered, "How do any scouts find these young players?"

Somehow, scouts do find them, on a random dirt field in the middle of Accra, Ghana. Football is the most global game in the world. Look at any roster, and you will find players from every corner of the earth. And it's made possible because of the intricate web of global scouting networks.

Clubs have extensive networks worldwide and in key geographical regions. Oftentimes, it's trusted locals, youth coaches, and former players scattered throughout cities and villages who will first notify a scout or club about a talent. When scouts get a call, they will travel on bumpy roads to see a prospect play.

Some of the top clubs have feeder academies or partner with local clubs and training centers in places such as West Africa, Brazil, and Eastern Europe. The clubs will snatch up the best players as they emerge from their local clubs. An example of this is the Right to Dream Academy in Ghana, which has direct ties to Nordsjælland in Denmark. It's a great gig for the youth players, knowing that there is a direct path to Europe if they succeed. Such was the case for Mohammed Kudus.

Scouts are often prowling the sidelines of youth tournaments. It's not unheard of for a scout to show up to a game that happens sporadically in the streets. Scouts will touch down in a country and sometimes not leave for months, jumping from game to game. More frequently, scouts are turning to cell phone video footage sent to them via WhatsApp. It is often a video that sparks a scout's initial interest.

For players, it can be a matter of being seen at the right time. Sadio Mané is a classic example, after being spotted in Senegal at the age of 15. He joined a well-known club in Dakar, the capital of Senegal. After succeeding there, he was signed to a French team, where he impressed in Ligue 2. He then joined Red Bull Salzburg in Austria before finally making his way to the Premier League.

Red Bull the Football Club

Mané's stint with Red Bull Salzburg is no coincidence. What is known as an energy drink by most is building a football empire. Many have probably seen the Red Bull logo on different football team jerseys. However, it isn't just a sponsor for a couple of random football clubs. Red Bull is a football club. Plural.

SSV Makranstädt was a fledgling club in Germany bouncing around the lower divisions. In 2009, Red Bull decided to purchase licensing rights to Makranstädt, which eventually led to it owning most of the club's voting rights through a few German footballing rules being bent.

One of those rules is that teams can't be named after their sponsors, but Red Bull decided to change the name of the team to "Rasenballsport Leipzig." Rasenballsport literally means "lawn ball sports," which seems rather embarrassing for a professional sports team. However, Red Bull didn't care because the team name could then be abbreviated to RB Leipzig. The new abbreviated name, coupled with a big Red Bull logo on the front of the jersey, meant everyone now associated Red Bull with the team.

Meanwhile, Leipzig started winning. Within six years, the team went from the German fifth division to the first division and finished second in its first season in the top flight. While RB Leipzig is Red Bull's most successful (at least on football's biggest stage) and best team, it wasn't the first club it bought.

Red Bull acquired SV Austria Salzburg in 2005 and renamed the team Red Bull Salzburg. In fact, it has majority ownership in six football teams spanning Europe, North and South America, and Asia. Additionally, Red Bull has a minority stake in two other clubs.

In 2023, ESPN reported UEFA research showing that over 180 clubs worldwide were part of a multi-club structure, up from 40 in 2012. Red Bull isn't alone in its entrance into the world's most popular sport. The Saudis are very active in purchasing top clubs around the world. Even celebrities have gotten into the mix—look at Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds' purchase of Wrexham in 2021 and their recent purchase of a minority stake in the Mexican side, Club Necaxa.

For Red Bull, it comes down to three key variables that have driven success on the field. Spoiler, it all happens before the games are played.

1. Tactics & Style: Red Bull recruits and trains its players to play a certain brand of football

2. Unified Global Scouting: Red Bull has arguably the best network of scouts around the globe, all working together for the Red Bull brand

3. Player Movement: Players in the system will work their way up to the best Red Bull teams as they improve

Tactics & Style

One thing Red Bull has done is create a distinct style of play. They play with energy and have adopted high-pressing football. Red Bull's clubs train and scout for this type of player.

Red Bull scouts look for players who have an instinct for when to pressure and when to sit back in compact zonal structures. Scouting for players who can play at a high pace with the ability to transition quickly helps to predict those who can meet the demands of top-flight football.

The Football Analyst has a great graphic that identifies key tactics and skills Red Bull looks for in players of different positions.

Unified Global Scouting

Red Bull scouts are relentless in their pursuit of talent, often identifying players 12-24 months before any other major clubs take notice. If a player looks promising based on the eye test and analytic measurements, they may be invited for a trial with one of their many teams around the world.

Red Bull isn't afraid to take calculated risks. It will sign players who may be raw or undeveloped, but show signs of elite talent, believing they can be molded once in the Red Bull system.

One of the reasons Red Bull has so much success is that all its clubs are interconnected. They act as one large club, sharing information about players and creating a large network of connected data from around the world.

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Additionally, Red Bull intentionally scouts in places where there is less competition among other top clubs. Regions such as Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, South America, West Africa, and the USA/Canada are places where they have strong networks and ties to have their pick of the litter. With Red Bull clubs spread across continents, it also makes it easier to plug a player into its system without navigating too much legal red tape.

Player Movement

Red Bull is also disciplined in the way it operates the clubs. They focus on player development in the academy systems and refrain from big-money signings, unlike other governments and billionaires that have bought into the footballing world. Red Bull's business formula is simple. Grow and buy young players who fit the Red Bull mold. Develop them into stars. Sell them off to bigger clubs for a profit. All while trying to compete and be relevant at the highest levels.

Take Naby Keïta, for example. According to Transfermarkt, Red Bull only invested around €1.5 million in him, yet sold him to Liverpool for a fee of €60 million after just four years in the Red Bull System.

Before selling to bigger clubs, Red Bull players within the system are moved from club to club as they improve. Players will often start at FC Liefering, then graduate to play for Red Bull Salzburg, before finally going to Germany to play for RB Leipzig.

Red Bull treats its lower-tier clubs as a farm system similar to the minor leagues in baseball. These transitions are done smoothly because there isn't much negotiating necessary when it comes to transfer fees, etc. Sure, there are questions around fairness in the footballing world, but from a player's perspective, it is great that this system is in place to help them fulfil their dreams of playing in the best European leagues.

This type of player movement allows Red Bull clubs to compete without skipping a beat. Its clubs always have someone else ready to step up once a player is sold to a bigger club. When Keïta moved to Liverpool, Konrad Laimer and Amadou Haidara stepped up. When Dayot Upamecano was sold to Bayern Munich, Mohamed Simakan and Josko Gvardiol were ready to replace him.

While Red Bull's European clubs are firing on all cylinders, they acknowledge they haven't had as much success moving players from New York Red Bulls and Red Bull Bragantino to Europe.

Oliver Mintzlaff, the CEO of Corporate Projects and Investments at Red Bull, has shared his frustrations, saying, "MLS is developing, but it's developing far too slowly and is still far away from the standard we would imagine for a country like the USA."

In fact, only one player in the Red Bull system has made the continental jump, and that is US international, Tyler Adams. If Red Bull can get its North and South America pipeline of talent revving—look out. They will then have a truly worldwide tidal wave of talent working for their network of clubs.

The New Business of Football

Red Bull’s approach to football may feel unconventional to traditionalists. After all, this is a company that made its name selling energy drinks, not lifting trophies. But their global scouting network, unified playing style, and coordinated efforts across clubs show that they’re not just in the game to slap a logo on a jersey. They’re here to win.

At the same time, whether you're a kid on a dirt pitch in Ghana, a raw talent in Brazil, or a promising midfielder in Austria, Red Bull offers a clear path to the top.

That’s what makes Red Bull's model both exciting and controversial. On one hand, it fulfills dreams and proves that talent can be spotted and nurtured from almost anywhere on earth. On the other hand, it raises questions about the ethics of the game when corporations get involved. Either way, Red Bull’s multi-club empire represents the future of football.

I was camping and out of cell service when it was announced Dame Lillard would be returning to the Portland Trail Blazers. When I finally got service, texts from a handful of friends came in sharing the news. My first reaction was happiness. A feeling that went beyond the roster fit and cap table. Like one of those times when it doesn't make sense on paper, but it just feels right in your heart.

I was about halfway through writing another post, but decided to write this instead. I had to share how I was feeling about the homecoming of a Blazers legend and ignore all the left-brained second-guessing that has filled the airwaves following the announcement.

Dame reportedly had the opportunity to join an organization that could compete for championships during the last few productive years of his post-Achilles tear, aging body. It would be business as usual—a team attempting to get every last drop out of a player whose playing days are numbered. A former superstar chasing a ring to try and prove that he belongs among the top 75 players of all time.

However, Dame chose the path not often taken. He is comfortable enough in his own skin to say he is ok with the possibility of not winning a ring to be considered among the elite players and point guards who have ever played.

He chose home. He chose family. He chose his heart. He chose his fans. He chose forgiveness.

I mean, just look at this video of him entering the locker room again for the first time. He couldn't be happier.

As a fan of the NBA, Blazers, and Dame, this is a good story we can all get behind. Dame and the Blazers are a story that would feel incomplete if he didn't return. We should celebrate this move. It should be something we encourage more of. Instead of jumping from team to team chasing rings and legacy, why not create your own legacy right where you are supposed to be?

Dame and the front office had to repair hurt feelings and a difference of opinion to get this deal done. It's a lesson in fighting for the things we love and care about most, rather than running when things get tough. We should follow our hearts, forgive, and move forward together. Life is too short to chase what others want us to pursue instead of going after what truly matters to us.

Embrace your 'Dame back to Portland' moment in your own life. Don't hold grudges. Don't make your life miserable. It's in your hands. Make it happen.

At least the script should read something like that.

However, before we write off the signing of Dame as only a feel-good story, we must remember that Dame can still do things on the basketball court that most others in the Association can't. He's still a top 15-20 player, statistically. He's still one of the best offensive weapons when he gets going. His leadership is among the league's elite. He can score the ball and get to the free throw line with the best of them.

I can almost bet that Dame thinks that if the stars align, there is a chance the Blazers win it all. Afterall, he did say in his introductory press conference that this was a "basketball move."

Deep down in their hearts, I don't really think the Blazers front office feels the same way Dame feels. I think they are hoping for it to work out on the court. They have a very good young core, but they need one of those young pieces to pop and develop into a star to have a chance. And that pop needs to happen ASAP. If a pop doesn't happen, the Blazers likely won't compete for a championship when Dame is on the roster, at least while playing meaningful minutes.

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Dame almost certainly won't be able to fill that void once he returns. In all honesty, his best chance at a championship with the Blazers is if the guy drafted to replace him, Scoot Henderson, is good enough to beat Dame out for the starting spot. It feels like a long shot at this point.

The front office probably looks at Dame as a player who can come in and mentor the young guys. A player who can put butts in seats and win back a fanbase who has been searching in the wilderness for something to cheer for ever since Dame left. A player that a new owner can point to and justify the price they will have to pay for the franchise.

When it comes to roster building, this move doesn't really make a ton of sense. The Blazers just traded for Jrue Holiday, another aging star who has shown signs that Father Time isn't far away. Dame and Jrue make up about 30% of the Blazers cap, which isn't great when both are north of 35 years old.

The hope is probably to recreate what the Houston Rockets did this year. However, two salaries of Jrue and Dame make building a young, competitive roster more complicated in the coming years, especially with key extensions on the horizon and Dame's no-trade clause looming over the team. The Rockets had flexibility and tradable assets this summer to make win-now moves. I'm not sure the Blazers have the same cards up their sleeves.

How the Blazers balance Dame and Jrue with Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot will be an interesting experiment. Dame and Jrue will surely attempt to turn back the clock to their backcourt partnership on Team USA that won gold in the 2020 (played in 2021) Olympics, but playing the young guys big minutes will be what could eventually get the Blazers over the edge.

I don't even want to think about all that logical stuff though. I want to focus on how my heart feels about the signing. Something about full-circle moments in life are beautiful, and this is exactly that for Dame, the Blazers, and the fans. The Blazers are my favorite sports team. Dame is my favorite athlete. I'm going to enjoy this one, even if it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. I sure hope Dame and the Blazers prove me wrong.

Dame Lillard was waived, and his contract was stretched. The Milwaukee Bucks would rather have $22 million of dead money on their cap for the next five seasons than have him on its roster. Brutal.

Lillard’s recent Achilles tear likely has a lot to do with this decision. If the upward trend in Achilles injuries persists, other teams may face a similar decision.

The NBA has already assembled a panel to understand the rise in Achilles injuries. Just this last season we saw eight Achilles tears. Previously, the most in one season was four. The NBA is hopeful they can find some answers. Said Adam Silver,

"I'm hopeful that by looking at more data, by looking at patterns, the ability with AI to ingest all video of every game a player's played in to see if you can detect some pattern that we didn't realize that leads to an Achilles injury. We're taking it very seriously."

I analyzed Achilles injuries since 1992 and considered factors that could have contributed to each of the Achilles ruptures.

All but one reported Achilles tear happened during non-contact plays. Most commonly, players step backward and plant their back foot as they attempt to push off and gain momentum when their Achilles gives out.

As you can see from the chart below, this often occurs when driving to the basket or going after a loose ball. Whether this movement is preventable is up for debate and one I am not qualified to answer.

Many have already formed their own opinions speculating on what is causing the uptick of the devastating injury. We've heard everything. One factor could be the increased pace of the game combined with more explosive players. Another factor could be that athletes are playing single sports year-round from a younger and younger age. Some continue to blame the 82-game schedule.

All of these likely play a role in Achilles injuries in the NBA. I turned to the available data (which isn't a lot given the small sample) to uncover possible reasons for Achilles injuries. The data doesn't prove or disprove any one culprit but helps to better explain potential theories.

Increased Load

I have previously written on load management, the act of sitting players to rest them to try to prevent future injuries. One of the main takeaways from my piece was that load management could potentially cause more injuries if not careful.

The reason for this is that as load is increased on players' muscles and joints, a player's body can break down if it isn't properly adjusted to the increased load.

Here's a practical example: If a player comes off a prior injury and has been sitting for two weeks without game action, they may be out of shape. Once they return, their body experiences an increase in physical load that it isn't accustomed to, which can cause stress.

So that's exactly where I started. As I scoured injury reports for players who ruptured their Achilles, about half of them had just come off a previous injury either related or unrelated to their Achilles. It is possible that many players who tore an Achilles just weren't in game shape and exerted too much stress on their Achilles too soon. Lillard is the perfect prototype for this theory.

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Similarly, I also looked at minutes per game of players who tore their Achilles. Playing in the 30-40 minute range seems to increase the likelihood of injuries. However, there are plenty of players who have torn their Achilles and averaged in the 0-20 minute range per game.

This could also point towards introducing too much stress without being in game shape. It's no secret that NBA teams practice far fewer times throughout a season compared to the past. Perhaps a lack of practice introduces injury risk, especially for those who aren't playing big minutes.

In the same vein, more players have torn their Achilles having played less than 25 games in a season compared to those who have played more than 75. Again, maybe too much load too quickly into a season increases injury risk.

Pace

Over the last 20 seasons, we've seen the pace of NBA games increase dramatically. Teams are now averaging about 10 more possessions per game compared to the early 2000s. Due to the increase in pace, we are also seeing players cover more miles on the basketball court per 82 games since the early 2000s—about 200 more miles in fact.

At the same time, there is a correlation with an increase in Achilles injuries. It appears that as the pace of the game increases, more Achilles injuries are occurring. However, this argument breaks down once you go back further in time.

The pace in the 60s and 70s was crazy high. In fact, between 1955 and 1988, pace never dipped below 100 possessions per 48 minutes. In the early 1960s, pace peaked to over 125. Compare that to today's NBA where we thought the pace was fast (at least compared to the 2000s). Last season's average pace was only 98.8 possessions per 48 minutes.

Now, we don't have as much data on Achilles injuries back in the 60s and 70s, but all indicators point towards today's NBA producing the most Achilles injuries. If pace were the sole reason for an increase in Achilles injuries, we should have seen more back in the day.

Weight

I explored other factors that could impact Achilles injuries and weight stuck out to me as a possible culprit. Since around 1980, basketball players have continued to get heavier despite the average height of the NBA remaining flat. On the surface, an increase in weight also seems to correlate with an increase in Achilles injuries.

I created what I am calling a weight-to-height ratio. I divided the players' weight by their height (cm) to come up with a score for each player who ruptured an Achilles and compared it to the league average weight-to-height ratio.

What I found was that players from 1992-2009 who tore their Achilles had a higher weight-to-height ratio than the league average. However, since 2010, players who have ruptured their Achilles actually have a slightly lower weight-to-height ratio.

Again, we can't claim causation, but my best hypothesis for this is that when the pace was the slowest it has ever been in the NBA, more and more players bulked up, which could have caused additional wear on players' Achilles.

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As the pace of the NBA has increased over the last 15 years, perhaps it has become a bigger factor in Achilles injuries as players have slimmed down and introduced higher loads on their bodies all at once.

Again, if we look back at the 60s and 70s, the pace was still much higher than it is today. However, the players' weight was much lower. The average player back then was a good 10-15 pounds lighter than today. More agility and less bulk could be beneficial in preventing injuries when the pace increases.

This argument feels logical, especially if you look at other sports that have similar side-to-side cutting movements and changes in direction. Tennis is the first sport that comes to mind and those athletes are much leaner than basketball players.

Cumulative Load

I also looked at the cumulative load throughout a career. From 1992-2009, the average age of a player who ruptured their Achilles was 29.9. Given that an Achilles tear was known as an "old man's injury," an average of nearly 30 years old seems reasonable.

However, the age of players who rupture their Achilles has decreased since 2010 to 27.5. This is the prime of someone's career, and being derailed for 12+ months with an Achilles injury definitely shouldn't be something a player and training staff should be worrying about.

Similarly, the number of seasons a player plays before accruing an Achilles injury has declined. Just look at this scatter plot below. From 2010 until today, the average number of seasons played in the NBA before an Achilles tear was 7.0. Compare that to the average number of seasons played between 1992-2009 before rupturing an Achilles and it was 8.5 seasons.

The number of players who have played fewer than five years while sustaining an Achilles injury has increased dramatically over the last 10 years.

Again, all of this could point to the increased miles and wear NBA athletes' bodies are being put through, not to mention the increased focus on playing a single sport year-round at the youth level.

Key Takeaways

As mentioned at the beginning, there likely isn't one reason we are seeing more Achilles injuries in recent years. It is probably a combination of a few factors that has created the perfect storm. Too much load among players who aren't in game shape, prior injuries, an increase in pace, weight, and cumulative load all likely impacted recent Achilles injuries.

I'm hopeful the NBA will release their data on Achilles injuries. However, if it's anything like their study on load management, they will likely keep most of their findings under wraps. Until then, we can only hope the NBA, team trainers, and individual players do what they can to prevent injuries and preserve the product on the court.

It’s not every day I decide to write about the losing team of the NBA Finals. However, the Indiana Pacers defied all expectations and it’s hard to ignore their underdog story.

Game 7 looked poised to deliver an all-time Tyrese Haliburton game in the opening moments. He was 3-4 from three and had nine points in the first seven minutes.

Then disaster struck. He tore his Achilles and knew it instantly as he pounded the floor with his fist and openly wept. It was a cruel end to a Pacers postseason that deserved a storybook ending.

Haliburton’s teammates held their own and even mustered a one-point lead at halftime. But OKCs suffocating defense took over in the second half. I thought Rick Carlisle’s substitutions in the third quarter didn’t do his team any favors either. With the season starting to slip away, he sat his best available player, Pascal Siakam, from the 7:13 to 1:56 mark.

In Game 7 of the NBA Finals, there comes a time when you have to cut the rotation down to six guys, especially when Haliburton isn’t available. And with the game getting out of hand, this wasn’t the time to play to your normal playoff rotation.

In the end, it probably wouldn’t have mattered given the events with Haliburton earlier in the game. OKC was the best team from October through June. They were the most deserving team to win it all. But it doesn’t take away from the miraculous run the Pacers had.

Before last year’s NBA Finals, I wrote about championship windows. In today’s NBA, championship windows are short and close fast. You can’t take them for granted and have to be bold and smart about when to throw all your chips in.

I discussed key indicators of championship contenders. They are the following:

1. Dominant: Top 5 offensive or defensive rating

2. Balanced: Top 5 net rating

3. Star Talent: Top 10 player in the NBA

4. Win: Top 5 in win percentage

Across the entire season, the Pacers didn’t hit on any of the indicators. Even if you remove the first 25 games of the season when Indiana went 10-15, they only meet the threshold for one of them: Top 5 in win percentage (fourth in the league). The Thunder, meanwhile, met the threshold of all five categories and had a historically great year.

The Pacers made for one of the most competitive and entertaining NBA Finals in recent memory, winning three games. Like I said, true underdogs. They defied all logic.

Even now, I still think most would look at the Pacers and think they are a good, but not great team. When looking at others who have lost in the NBA Finals—Kobe’s Lakers ('08), LeBron’s Heat ('11), Duncan’s Spurs ('13), and Tatum’s Celtics ('22)—I think most would consider these teams great. Maybe hindsight is 20/20; these teams eventually won an NBA championship.

I don’t think anyone looks at Haliburton's Pacers and gets the same feeling. I certainly don’t think many believe they can get back and win a championship. Certainly, the Pacers won’t be in the Finals next year because they will be without their best player for the whole campaign.

And maybe that’s just how the modern NBA is going to be. Last year’s Mavericks didn’t make the playoffs this year. The Heat haven’t looked the same since their Finals run as an eight seed in '23. The Suns are now a complete disaster since their Finals run in '21.

But this year’s Pacers still need to be celebrated. They improved throughout the season and playoffs and should be considered a great team based on their accomplishments. They got to the Finals where they pushed the favorites to seven games and were a torn Achilles away from potentially winning it all. They weren’t just happy to be there like so many past teams who found unexpected success in the playoffs.

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None of the other recent one-and-done Finals losers came close to accomplishing what the Pacers did in the Finals. The Mavericks and Heat won once and the Suns won twice.

But how did this year’s Pacers do it and come within an overworked calf of winning the title?

For starters, they just played really hard. Said JJ Redick back in February:

“I had this revelation…There’s only actually one cheat code in the NBA and that’s playing hard. If you play hard every night, you have a chance to win. If you don’t play hard every night, you’re probably going to lose.”

As simple as it sounds, the Pacers play really hard. After 105 games this season, they still went out there and competed every possession. Maybe their depth had something to do with it, but playing hard is a rare commodity in the NBA. In the NBA Finals, the Pacers even out-hustled the Thunder, recovering 46 loose balls compared to OKCs 34.

The Pacers were also the epitome of team play. Some may argue Haliburton is now a top-ten player in the league, but he isn’t the type of player to generate his own shot on any given possession. He is a pass-first player and the Pacers are built around ball movement and the power of ‘we’ to get the ball in the basket.

The Pacers have less talent at the top of their roster compared to the Thunder, which requires them to generate points in other ways. Probably most telling is the number of passes they had throughout the Finals. Indiana had 702 more passes than the Thunder during the series (326.4 passes per game).

That’s more passes per game than any other Finals team since the '14 Spurs. The Spurs were just able to convert those passes to more assists, while the Pacers weren’t able to capitalize as frequently.

The Pacers generated 159 assists to the Thunder’s 123 throughout the entire seven-game series, which was 23 assists per 100 possessions. Historically, that isn’t actually all that much compared to recent Finals teams. The ball movement gold standard set by the '14 San Antonio Spurs generated 28.7 assists per 100 possessions.

The Pacers also shot the ball from the field at a higher percentage than the Thunder. They shot 19 fewer field goals but were able to keep up with the Thunder because they were more efficient and had 18 more three-point baskets. However, their efficiency wasn’t able to make up for the free throw and turnover differences. Indiana had 31 more turnovers and 35 fewer points off free throws over the seven games.

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So what do the Pacers have to do to get back to the Finals, win a championship, and be mentioned in the same breath as the great Finals teams that lost before winning it all?

For one, they have to get healthy. Next season is going to be a wash. They will likely compete and make the playoffs, but a deep run isn’t expected from anyone. Then they have to prove to everyone that this magical run wasn’t a fluke. They can’t expect to miss on all five key championship indicators and get back to one win away from an NBA championship.

The problem is that 16 months from now we can have a completely different NBA. Change happens quickly in the Association. Look at the Boston Celtics. Just 12 months ago they were NBA champions. Now, two key players from that team have been traded to save money for a season in which Tatum will be absent due to his own Achilles injury.

Indiana’s key pieces are locked up for multiple years, but contributors such as Myles Turner and Bennedict Mathurin will be out of contract by the time Haliburton returns. Unfortunately, the Pacers may not get the chance to try and prove they are a great team. They may always be the team that had a fun playoff run and came close but never made it back on the main stage.

What the Pacers did prove is that it’s possible to win it all as massive underdogs. On the Bill Simmons Podcast, Zach Lowe said he talked with a General Manager and asked what he learned from the Pacers’ unprecedented run. The GM's answer was, “Hope.” (Cue the Star Wars gif...)

And hope is what the Pacers will have to do for the next 18-24 months as they prepare to try and make another Finals run. Hope that they can keep their core together while adding key pieces. Hope that they can stay healthy. Hope that Haliburton can get back to being an elite player. Hope that the ball bounces their way once or twice. If these things happen, we may be including these Pacers in the same breath as the great Finals winners 24 months from now.

I hope your summer is off to a great start. I went on vacation with my family last week and came back to even hotter weather at home.

For my new subscribers, every so often I round up the most interesting sports articles I’ve come across and put them in a Seven Wonders post. I’m now on the seventh iteration of such a post.

But first, here are some of my recent and relevant posts you may have missed:

Do the Saudis have their target set on the NBA?: This is actually one of my first-ever posts for my newsletter, but it’s relevant since Bill Simmons’ comments on a new league being promoted by LeBron’s business partner, Maverick Carter. The Saudis are reportedly behind some of the initial investment needed to get the league started.

Soccer in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq: I dive into the little-known story of Hussein’s son, Uday, and how he turned the Iraqi national team experience into a nightmare with torture and threats.

The NBA Is More Talented Than Ever: I examine advanced statistics to understand the depth of talent in the NBA compared to other eras. Spoiler alert–the NBA has never been better.

The Decline of the Number Nine: Today's style of play has contributed to the decline of world-class strikers in soccer/football, but how having one can make all the difference.

Eight Interesting NBA Playoff Charts & Graphs: In honor of the NBA playoffs, I shared charts and graphs that explain the game when it matters most. Plus, as a Blazers fan, I shared my thoughts on Dame Lillard after his injury.

I Think We Can Fix College Basketball: I propose a few ways to improve the college game using data and common sense and share the impact of doing so.

And now, here are the seven best things I've read in sports recently:

The Truth about Scott “The Extender” Foster by . Everyone knows Scott Foster as “The Extender” because he is brought in to extend a series. However, Tom analyzes the data to understand the real implications of “The Extender” nickname and how it impacted Game 4 of the NBA Finals.

There Is No Ethical Hooping Under Basketball Capitalism by . Shai is known by opposing fans as the “free throw merchant.” Neil takes a look at the incentives of foul baiting and why we will continue to see players find innovative ways to get to the charity stripe.

Are the Thunder Cooking the Books for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander? by . A look into Shai’s turnover differences when playing at home vs on the road and an investigation into what may be the culprit.

No system ever won a football match by . While examining Amorim’s tactics, Clive argues that his rigid approach is hurting Manchester United instead of helping.

Mesut Özil, the politician by . The complicated relationship between Mesut Özil and Germany, the country he dazzled for on the pitch.

The Colour of Football by . A fun read into the reasons behind different international teams’ soccer jersey colors and why they don’t always match their country’s flag.

There is No Face of the NBA by . The mystique of past icons like Michael Jordan is impossible to replicate in today's social media-driven landscape. What fans truly desire is great basketball.

I hope these reads help you beat the heat. Stay cool out there!

It is estimated that there are over 3.5 billion soccer fans worldwide. Soccer fans around the world are driven by a deep, almost tribal passion that transcends the sport itself. It's about identity, community, and belonging.

The intensity of soccer fans can seem foreign to many. But think about it this way. Imagine you have only one sports team to root for and a single professional sport in your city or town. Now imagine you were born with a soccer ball at your feet and the only time you saw your family show emotion was when watching your favorite team play.

Your grandpa has a tattoo of his team’s crest. Your cousin was a ballboy for the club as a kid. Your aunt opened up a bar named after a section of bleachers in the stadium. Soccer is an heirloom passed through the generations. It’s a shared heartbeat where everyone in the town is connected to the pulse.

Now extrapolate that to a country. That is international soccer. With soccer being the very fabric of a town or country, it is easy to see how lines can be blurred between real life and a game.

We just had a match between Albania and Serbia this past weekend, which reminded us of the infamous drone moment, which wrote so eloquently about.

Sports & Geopolitics

Albania, Serbia and that drone

On October 14, 2014, in Belgrade's Partizan stadium, a match between Serbia and Albania is taking place. It has been 50 years since the two national teams last faced each other…

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a year ago · 10 likes · 2 comments · Gëzim Qadraku

That incident over 10 years ago is a reminder of how close to home a game can be for fans and how it can boil over into political and societal issues. Such is also the case for the Iraqi national team under the reign of Saddam Hussein.

Uday Hussein

Most already know Saddam Hussein. He was an Iraqi politician who served as Iraq’s fifth president from 1979 until 2003 when the US invaded Iraq. He was known for purging political rivals and starting wars. Human Rights Watch estimated that during Saddam’s rule, he was responsible for between 250,000 - 290,000 murdered or missing Iraqis.

Most don’t know about Hussein’s oldest son, Uday. In the early 1980s, Iraq was at war with Iran. Thousands of Iraqis were being killed, which demoralized the country. To improve morale and bring pride to a broken country, Hussein appointed his son, Uday, to be the chairman of the Iraqi Olympic Committee and the Iraq Football Association.

So Uday, a new college graduate, took the reins and did everything in his power to prove to his father that he could follow in his footsteps. What followed was the culmination of soccer fandom, power, and pure evil. Said Uday’s body double years later, “The word that defines him is sadistic. I think Saddam Hussein was more human than Uday.”

Uday's Punishments

Uday used fear and punishment to try and motivate the players. His most subdued method was giving the dressing room a call before matches or during halftime to shout threats at the players. He would hit players in front of their teammates and shave players’ heads and eyebrows if they didn’t perform up to his standard.

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He meticulously tracked missed shots or bad passes. If a player received enough strikes, they would be forced to participate in 12-hour long training sessions, which included using concrete balls. There are also reports that he chained players to walls in contorted positions for days at a time. He would drag players on pavement until their backs were bloodied, and then dunk them in sewage to ensure their wounds would become infected. Whipping the soles of players’ bare feet was a regular occurrence.

Uday would throw players in prison for days or months at a time if they performed poorly. It wasn’t uncommon for players to bring pillows to the games and on team buses in case they were sent directly to prison. Abbas Rahim Zair, a former Iraqi national team player, once missed a penalty shot. He was blindfolded and taken to a prison camp for three weeks.

Yasser Abdul Latif, a former captain of the team, once received a red card. He was confined to a two-square-meter cell and forced to do push-ups in two-hour increments while being flogged with cables by guards. When he was released, he wasn’t able to sleep on his back for a month.

Said Latif, “Really, Iraq was a big jail. But I never had any choice. They threatened me. If I didn’t participate on the team, they said they would beat me again and again, and consider me an enemy of the regime, and that would mean death.”

In 1997, FIFA investigated reports that members of the national team were imprisoned after losing a World Cup qualifying match to Kazakhstan. Later, players described the elaborate preparations that took place to hide any wrongdoing, which included removing players from being examined who still had scars from recent torture. In the end, FIFA found no evidence of beating and imprisonment after interviewing and examining 12 players.

It has been reported by the Olympic Council that Uday is responsible for killing more than 50 Iraqi athletes and sports figures. Some former athletes say Uday went to such extreme and vile lows to try and motivate the athletes to play better. Others say he did it just for fun.

It seems likely that Uday's deranged upbringing had something to do with his behavior. It is said that Uday played with disarmed grenades as an infant. At the age of 10, he would accompany his father, Saddam, to witness executions. In high school, he bragged about murdering his teacher for disrespecting him in front of his girlfriend. The example and influence of Uday’s father obviously impacted the way he ran his sports organizations.

Team Performance Under Uday

There wasn’t an emotionally safe place to be as an athlete during Uday’s reign.

“Football in the Uday era was a scary and terrifying time not devoid of negative psychological pressure on all the players and athletes,” said a former Iraqi player. “We used to be on the receiving end of humiliating and degrading punishments if we lose, and that massively affected the performances of the players in most tournaments that we participated in.”

However, what is mind-boggling is how well the national team performed under these circumstances. In fact, the team has never performed better than when Uday was in charge.

During the 19 years Uday was in control of the Iraqi national team, they had an overall adjusted win percentage of 61.71%, which is my way of awarding a third of a win for ties. Outside of the Uday era, the team’s adjusted win percentage is 54.26%. Now, the early 2000s were certainly chaotic with the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. You would expect its soccer team to suffer accordingly for years.

However, Iraq has also won almost as many trophies (6) under Uday as the rest of its team history (7). And it has qualified for one World Cup under Uday compared to never qualifying when he wasn’t in charge. This all happened when Iraq was banned from participating in any major tournaments in the 1990s because of the Gulf War, which Saddam Hussein started.

We obviously aren’t condoning any of the atrocities Uday committed under the guise of motivating his players. However, the Hussein’s probably cared about sports more than any other politician in Iraq’s history (albeit they went about it the wrong way).

Still, much of the differences in era performance likely has to do with the fact that Iraq’s ‘Golden Generation’ played at the same time as Uday’s rule. As mentioned previously, many players have said they feel they would have performed even better if Uday’s threats weren’t constantly on their mind.

Looking Forward

The Hussein era still looms over the country. Like any normal person whose life is destabilized by war and conflict, there will be some longing for past days, even if those past days involve the risk of being targeted by a regime that committed crimes against humanity. I’m sure some Iraqi soccer fans feel similarly.

Many of Iraq’s current players don’t remember a time under Hussein’s rule. Just over 20 years removed from the Uday era, Iraq’s national team is trying to rebuild. Most of its players still play domestically or elsewhere in the Middle East. While they haven’t won as consistently as in years past, there is hope for the upcoming World Cup. With the expanded field in 2026, Iraq still has a chance to qualify after securing an Asian Football Confederation playoff spot this week.

Graham Arnold, the former Australia head coach, was just appointed as Iraq’s new coach. The aspiration is that he gets them into the World Cup. Then anything is possible.

We can all agree, we’d like to see Iraq perform without the oppressive hand of Uday hiding in the backdrop. We should just be happy that in Iraq, it’s about soccer, again. In this case, let’s keep politics and sports separate.

Kevin Durant thinks this era of basketball is the best it has ever been. Players are doing extraordinary things on the court every single night. There is more parity in the Association than ever before. Once this season’s champion is crowned, we will have had seven different teams win the Championship over the last seven years, a feat that has never been achieved before. The last time the NBA had six different champions in six years was 1975 - 1980.

Maybe the new cap restrictions and second apron have something to do with it, but that didn’t go into effect until the 2024 offseason. Personally, I agree with Durant and believe we are seeing more parity because the talent level has exploded in recent years.

Measuring Talent Depth

It’s difficult to measure talent across different eras. If it were easy, we wouldn’t have endless talk radio debates and Stephen A. Smith arguing with anyone brave enough to challenge him. With access to better training, medicine, and equipment, I don’t think there is an argument about whether the average NBA player is more talented now compared to 15, 20, or 30+ years ago. But the question still remains whether there is more talent depth, leading to increased levels of competition.

The game is different across generations. The pace, physicality, three-point shot, introduction of analytics into gameplay, and more, all impact the game, making it difficult to measure talent across eras.

Given these facts, we can’t just look at PPG, RPG, APG, shooting percentages, or the eye test to determine the depth of talent in the league today compared to the past. While not perfect, this is where advanced stats can control for differences, such as pace.

Enter Win Shares per 48 Minutes (WS/48) and Box Plus/Minus (BPM). Both WS/48 and BPM are easily accessible and can easily be tracked across eras (unlike some other advanced stats), which makes them ideal for answering questions about talent depth.

To be clear, I’m not ranking individual players—I think it would be a disservice to use these metrics (alone) to do that. However, we can create thresholds and cohorts of players to understand how many players reached certain levels of play.

With that said, here are the all-time leaders in both WS/48 and BPM so you have them for reference. They still pull the most elite players we’ve ever witnessed to the top, which is obviously a good thing when measuring the number of players that achieve certain thresholds based on these advanced stats.

In essence, WS/481 is an estimate of the fraction of a win contributed by a player per 48 minutes. It considers the output offensively and defensively of a player adjusted for the pace of the league, the team, and the scoring rate of players in the league.

BPM2 is a box score-based metric that estimates a basketball player’s contribution to the team when that player is on the court. It is based only on the data available in a traditional box score and ignores data obtained via other means (e.g. deflections).

As mentioned above, I created cohorts of players based on certain levels achieved. The idea is that the number of players reaching certain heights in these two metrics can tell us about the aggregate talent level for a particular season.

I observed the data across the last 30 seasons and removed all players who played less than 500 minutes throughout a season to extract anomalies in the data.

Number of Players Who Had Elite Seasons

The first threshold I looked at was a WS/48 above 0.25 and a BPM greater than 8, both of which indicate elite seasons by individuals. Unsurprisingly, there were never more than six players identified in any one season that achieved these levels.

As you can see, there are clear upward trends in the data with the total number of players reaching these thresholds doubling over the last 10 seasons. The low points in the data are in the early 2000s, which fits the narrative that the NBA lacked high-level talent after Jordan’s second retirement.

This suggests there may be more elite players in the Association now, but what about the next tier of players?

Number of Players Who Had Great or Good Seasons

When plotting the data for “great” and “good” seasons, we see a similar upward trend over the last 30 years. WS/48 for players having great seasons has roughly doubled since the early 2000s, whereas BPM was consistent until around 2015. However, now the number of players reaching a BPM greater than 6 has doubled and sometimes tripled since the 2000s and early 2010s. Similarly, the metrics show consistent upward trends for those having “good” seasons (WS > 0.15 & BPM > 2).

Number of Players Who Had Below Average Seasons

I also looked at the lower half of the league and decided to look at the percentage of the league that was below the league average for both metrics (WS/48 < 0.1 & BPM < 0). The decision to use a percentage was because the number of players who play at least 500 minutes changes each season, and I didn't want that to bias the data.

What I found was that those bucketed in this bottom threshold stayed pretty consistent throughout the last 30 seasons. In some of my cuts, I removed the 1999 season because it was a lockout year in which only 50 games were played. This resulted in only 266 players reaching 500 minutes.

As you can see, once the 1999 season is removed, there is even a slight downward trend in the data, meaning that a smaller percentage of players are meeting this “below average” threshold. This suggests the lower half of the league's talent has been improving. With that said, the trend doesn’t seem strong enough to draw any definitive conclusions.

The Average Output for the Top 150 Players

Based on the data, it appears that there is an argument to be made that the NBA is deeper than it has ever been, especially at the top of the league. To be sure, I observed how the average talent level compared across seasons among key players. I took the average WS/48 and average BPM among the top 150 players and plotted the data across the 30 seasons.

Again, what I found is that there has been an upward trend in the average WS/48 and BPM for the top 150 players since the early 2000s.

I gut-checked some of these findings with Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM)3, which predicts a player’s contributions to the team in points per 100 possessions. Dunks & Threes has an interactive EPM scatterplot that goes back to the 2002 season. If you quickly flip between each season, you will see similar trends to what we see in WS/48 and BPM above—there are more players in today’s game who are hitting higher thresholds.

Kevin Durant’s Opinion Checks Out

What this tells us is that the overall production and efficiency of important players have improved and that the depth of talent in the NBA is probably at an all-time high. At a minimum, the data tells us that there is a higher level of competition, which is likely leading to the parity we see today. I think Kevin Durant is right—this is the peak of the NBA, at least for now.